Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.


Mr T

Senior Member
Was it not clear? I said “not necessary (to squeeze)”.
China's objective is unification. If it were more accurately described as no formal Taiwanese independence, the status quo would make sense. But passing up an opportunity to force Taiwan to unify would be odd if those conditions exist.

That said, I recognise you also say you don't support a military intervention to force the issue. As far as I understand it most people on this forum would support that if Taiwan did not agree to unify. I understand now you don't share that view.
You are misinterpreting what I am saying.
First, 28 + 4 = 32%. Of course "hardcore Chinese identity" is a subjective label. If you want me to be more precise, then 25 - 30% always identify as Chinese. Taiwanese and Chinese is still Chinese. I've been seeing these reports for the last 20 years and the number has been pretty stable.
No, I understand what you're saying. I simply disagree.

Here's an article from 2016.

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First, the chart shows a decline in the mixed Taiwanese-Chinese identity, not a consistent line.

Second, the article pointed out the following.

"Among those who are 29 or younger, born after martial law ended in 1987, 78 percent hold an exclusively Taiwanese identity — as do nearly 70 percent of
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. If this trend continues, a solely Taiwanese identity will prevail as residents’ consensus.
"

Here's another poll from National Chengchi University. You can see the trend there as well.

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I would also argue that people who have a "hardcore" identity are more likely to identify exclusively as that thing than mix it in with other identities. Otherwise their identity is not hardcore.

Second, I am not talking about civil war, riots or calls for reunification. You made that logical leap. The point of the matter is whether a big chunk of the population wants any changes to the status quo. That percent of the population will likely be staunchly opposed. I'm not even going to bother including a link for surveys to show that even a bigger percentage are fine with the status quo, because they are everywhere.
It's China that wants to change the status quo. The Taiwanese government is not planning to revise the ROC constitution to make it about an independent Taiwan. The DPP's position is that Taiwan is an independent state named the ROC (if I remember correctly).

Are you going to argue that Taiwan extracts no benefits from that?
I'm trying to understand why the economic balance between China and Taiwan means that unification will happen within a foreseeable period (I'm assuming by 2049 as that's Xi's deadline for China's renewal). China doesn't trade with Taiwan out of charity, it buys stuff it wants. I don't think you believe Beijing will offer Taiwanese huge annual fiscal transfers to get their support. Even if wages in Taiwan are not that high (and they're not that low otherwise Taiwanese companies in China would be bringing manufacturing back to take advantage of that), unification does not resolve that issue.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
If you think the US is definitely on the side of Taiwan, then please allow me to throw the question back at you. What is Taiwan waiting for?
That's fairly simple. The US has previously indicate that it would not support Taiwan if it changed the constitution to turn the ROC into the Republic of Taiwan, or made a UDI. So Taiwan is content to carry on as the ROC, at least for now.
 

vesicles

Colonel
That's fairly simple. The US has previously indicate that it would not support Taiwan if it changed the constitution to turn the ROC into the Republic of Taiwan, or made a UDI. So Taiwan is content to carry on as the ROC, at least for now.
If Taiwan keeps its current constitution, then Taiwan is a part of China, yes? The constitution specifies that Taiwan should eventually re-unify with the mainland. The land of law and order surely should respect its constitution. You see the conundrum? You can't have it both ways.
 

Gatekeeper

Colonel
Registered Member
Then what do Taiwanese worry about? Declare independence! The PLA is a paper tiger after all. They are impotent. Taiwan can be independent now. If you don't believe the PLA is lethal, but still use them as an excuse for not declaring independence, then you are only "preventing" to want independence, yes?

His mind bending abilities defies gravity. At all times, he tries to put the blame solely on CCP's foot because hatred towards CCP.

But, as you said, if he's logic is that the U.S. has got Taiwan's back, and what's more will be able to beat the crap of China fir very little cost to the U.S.

Then what is there to stop Taiwan from fully declared independence?

Another thing is people like him can never understand, and that is technically, Taiwan is part of China including under this English vegetable administration. Because he keeps sticking his head in the sand on anything that he doesn't agreed with, he wouldn't know that every president of Taiwan have to swear an oath of allegiance to CHINA in front of the portrait of the founding father of modern China Dr son.

Even with his mind bending abilities, I doubt even he would be able to square that circle.

You made that logical leap

That's where You went wrong. You are assuming he's 'logical'! Lol
 

Gatekeeper

Colonel
Registered Member
If Taiwan keeps its current constitution, then Taiwan is a part of China, yes? The constitution specifies that Taiwan should eventually re-unify with the mainland. The land of law and order surely should respect its constitution. You see the conundrum? You can't have it both ways.

'You can't have it both ways'

But he will try! This is why debating with him is a fruitless endeavour. It's also so easy, as his debating skills are those of a five year old!
 

supersnoop

Junior Member
Registered Member
China's objective is unification. If it were more accurately described as no formal Taiwanese independence, the status quo would make sense. But passing up an opportunity to force Taiwan to unify would be odd if those conditions exist.

That said, I recognise you also say you don't support a military intervention to force the issue. As far as I understand it most people on this forum would support that if Taiwan did not agree to unify. I understand now you don't share that view.

No, I understand what you're saying. I simply disagree.

Here's an article from 2016.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

First, the chart shows a decline in the mixed Taiwanese-Chinese identity, not a consistent line.

Second, the article pointed out the following.

"Among those who are 29 or younger, born after martial law ended in 1987, 78 percent hold an exclusively Taiwanese identity — as do nearly 70 percent of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. If this trend continues, a solely Taiwanese identity will prevail as residents’ consensus.
"

Here's another poll from National Chengchi University. You can see the trend there as well.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I would also argue that people who have a "hardcore" identity are more likely to identify exclusively as that thing than mix it in with other identities. Otherwise their identity is not hardcore.


It's China that wants to change the status quo. The Taiwanese government is not planning to revise the ROC constitution to make it about an independent Taiwan. The DPP's position is that Taiwan is an independent state named the ROC (if I remember correctly).


I'm trying to understand why the economic balance between China and Taiwan means that unification will happen within a foreseeable period (I'm assuming by 2049 as that's Xi's deadline for China's renewal). China doesn't trade with Taiwan out of charity, it buys stuff it wants. I don't think you believe Beijing will offer Taiwanese huge annual fiscal transfers to get their support. Even if wages in Taiwan are not that high (and they're not that low otherwise Taiwanese companies in China would be bringing manufacturing back to take advantage of that), unification does not resolve that issue.

As I mentioned, "hardcore" is a subjective term. Even in that chart, you can see that there is an up and down and even recently the number was increasing until the recent decline which is in line with the Tsai administration's election. Since her party wants to openly antagonize China, the relationship deteriorates and suddenly these people are patriotic Taiwanese-only. You can just as much argue the other way that they are not "hardcore" Taiwanese either since they were identifying as Chinese before.

Anyway, my main point is that any strong move towards independence would likely be met with stiff opposition on Taiwan itself without any urging by PRC. The exact percentage is irrelevant.

Again, I never said unification by X time is any sure thing. However, I think any strong decoupling at any time is impossible.

Refer back to the original poster who said PRC should punish DPP administration economically. My point was they could have exercised this option many times over, but it is counterproductive. As you said yourself, the economic relationship benefits PRC too. Again, keeping in mind the context of that post... if you want to do counterproductive things, then you might as well launch a military invasion.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
As I mentioned, "hardcore" is a subjective term.
I'll leave you with one more poll from last year.

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"Separately, when asked to choose between a Taiwanese identity and a Chinese one, 86 per cent identified themselves as Taiwanese over Chinese, while 6.2 per cent saw themselves as Chinese over Taiwanese."

You will excuse me that I don't maintain a database of polls on Taiwanese identity, but I've seen that before. In short the Taiwanese identity is stronger than the Chinese one and takes precedent when people are asked to choose between them. Hence their "Chinese" identity is not hardcore in the slightest.
You can just as much argue the other way that they are not "hardcore" Taiwanese either since they were identifying as Chinese before.
Well no, they weren't identifying as Chinese before. Look back at the 2016 article. It's a progressive change due to older Taiwanese (with a stronger Chinese identity) dying and more becoming adults that were born in Taiwan, especially after martial law ended, who have little if any identity as being Chinese.

Anyway, my main point is that any strong move towards independence would likely be met with stiff opposition on Taiwan itself without any urging by PRC. The exact percentage is irrelevant.
Well it is quite important because it affects what such people could do. Less than 10% of the population can protest but that's it. They can't change anything politically and you've indicated that you weren't thinking about riots.

Besides, as you'll appreciate I've said before, the current discussion over Taiwan's future isn't whether it will unilaterally change the ROC to the ROT, but whether/when China will try to use force to bring about unification. There is no reason to believe Taipei will take that unilateral action for the foreseeable future.
 

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