Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.


Gatekeeper

Colonel
Registered Member
. If you want to say lying to someone's face and deceiving them is "outplaying" them then it's no surprise if that leads to bad relations.

This is the heights of hypocrisy! So it's alright for the U.S. to lie to China's face with their three join communique, and it won't lead to bad relations then.

Just what sort of works do you live In?
 

Mr T

Senior Member
The reason China doesn't squeeze harder is because it's not necessary. Most of Taiwan's goods are going to China. Either for assembly or consumption. You could launch a trade war tomorrow and cripple their economy far worse that what Trump tried to do with China.
China being in a position to seriously hurt Taiwan economically is not a reason to not push harder. If anything you're saying China is in a position to take action but has chosen not to for reasons unknown.
However, if China wanted to take a hard approach, they would have just launched the military solution. We saw what happened in Serbia and Crimea. US and allies are willing to push-push-push, but don't want to be hit back hard. Such a war would not only be expensive in terms of lives, but also the economy of both sides would be severely handicapped.
Crimea isn't really relevant because it was taken in a matter of hours due to the shocking state of the Ukrainian defence forces and because Russia already had significant forces in the region due to its naval base. If China could do the same thing in Taiwan the US would find it hard to intervene militarily. But that's not really a likely state of affairs because China will need a serious and very obvious military build up that couldn't be hidden. The PLA does not have bases on Taiwan to draw forces from. Obama was also incredibly naive about Russia whereas Sinoscepticism in contrast is much greater now.

As for Serbia (I presume you mean the Kosovo War) NATO relied on air/sea-power which would be the US' primary military response in a conflict with China, so it doesn't show concern about the cost of war.

You're also neatly forgetting the invasion of Iraq and the intervention in Afghanistan, both of which were decried as being at risk of causing "another Vietnam". Not only did the US (and its allies) take action but it stuck around longer than anyone thought it would.

Even if majority of people in Taiwan (and HK) feel superior over mainlanders, there are and probably always will be 25% to 30% that will be hardcore Chinese identity (I would argue in the case of HK that many that feel superior to mainlanders are not anti-Chinese identity). Such a big chunk of the population can cause severe domestic unrest as witnessed in the US from the BLM protests to the recent Trump storm.
Putting HK aside, it's simply not credible to suggest anywhere near a quarter of Taiwanese could riot in favour of Chinese annexation.

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"The U.S.-based Pew Research Center found that 66% view themselves as Taiwanese, 28% as both Taiwanese and Chinese and 4% as just Chinese."

4% have a "hardcore identity" as you put it, and they're almost certainly mostly in the older generation of people who came over during the Chinese Civil War. Also there were no mass riots when the DPP won in 2016 and 2020.

I also think that not being harder on DPP administrations is part of playing this long game. DPP has no clear plan for Taiwan's future.
Even if the DPP had no clear plan, how does that change things for China? Taiwan's economy isn't stagnating, if anything it's doing much better than its neighbours right now.

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I will agree with you that if China is willing to wait until after 2050 or 2100 attitudes in Taiwan may have changed such that peaceful unification with the PRC is much more possible. But waiting another 10 or so years by itself is unlikely to change anything, certainly while China keeps buzzing Taiwan militarily as it creates a feeling that there's already a military conflict going on. China's economy will have grown larger but the economic situation will be more or less as it is now. There's no magical tipping point where if the ratio between the Taiwanese and Chinese economies hits X then Taiwanese will immediately decide unification is necessary.
 
China being in a position to seriously hurt Taiwan economically is not a reason to not push harder. If anything you're saying China is in a position to take action but has chosen not to for reasons unknown.

Crimea isn't really relevant because it was taken in a matter of hours due to the shocking state of the Ukrainian defence forces and because Russia already had significant forces in the region due to its naval base. If China could do the same thing in Taiwan the US would find it hard to intervene militarily. But that's not really a likely state of affairs because China will need a serious and very obvious military build up that couldn't be hidden. The PLA does not have bases on Taiwan to draw forces from. Obama was also incredibly naive about Russia whereas Sinoscepticism in contrast is much greater now.

As for Serbia (I presume you mean the Kosovo War) NATO relied on air/sea-power which would be the US' primary military response in a conflict with China, so it doesn't show concern about the cost of war.

You're also neatly forgetting the invasion of Iraq and the intervention in Afghanistan, both of which were decried as being at risk of causing "another Vietnam". Not only did the US (and its allies) take action but it stuck around longer than anyone thought it would.


Putting HK aside, it's simply not credible to suggest anywhere near a quarter of Taiwanese could riot in favour of Chinese annexation.

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"The U.S.-based Pew Research Center found that 66% view themselves as Taiwanese, 28% as both Taiwanese and Chinese and 4% as just Chinese."

4% have a "hardcore identity" as you put it, and they're almost certainly mostly in the older generation of people who came over during the Chinese Civil War. Also there were no mass riots when the DPP won in 2016 and 2020.


Even if the DPP had no clear plan, how does that change things for China? Taiwan's economy isn't stagnating, if anything it's doing much better than its neighbours right now.

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I will agree with you that if China is willing to wait until after 2050 or 2100 attitudes in Taiwan may have changed such that peaceful unification with the PRC is much more possible. But waiting another 10 or so years by itself is unlikely to change anything, certainly while China keeps buzzing Taiwan militarily as it creates a feeling that there's already a military conflict going on. China's economy will have grown larger but the economic situation will be more or less as it is now. There's no magical tipping point where if the ratio between the Taiwanese and Chinese economies hits X then Taiwanese will immediately decide unification is necessary.
You choose details to try to disqualify the many instances where the US refused to fight a large power over a small ally where actually, when taken together, they present quite a solid picture of US policy. Then you present the biggest false equivalence, which is Iraq and Afghanistan, both of which have no chance of presenting a true fight to the US. I don't think anyone in the world, even people like Gordon Chang, would compare military conflict with China with military conflict with Afghanistan/Iraq.

Waiting for opinions to change is quite frankly futile. There are very few if any cases in history where 2 sides united into a country over a brotherly feelings. Almost all cases came from annexation through either military force or the threat of military force. It would be foolish to wait any amount of time, much less close to a century, for such a feeling to develop, but make all the sense in the world for China to feverishly develop its military (without overspending its economy) until the balance in Asia is at a point where it's no longer credible to expect US military intervention anymore than it is to expect Chinese military intervention today if the US attacked Cuba. By then, the correct sequence of actions would be to first unite the ROC through ultimatum and threat of force, and then to cultivate brotherhood.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
Then you present the biggest false equivalence, which is Iraq and Afghanistan, both of which have no chance of presenting a true fight to the US. I don't think anyone in the world, even people like Gordon Chang, would compare military conflict with China with military conflict with Afghanistan/Iraq.
The point was that the US has not refused to take military action just to protect American lives. Commentators said "the Soviets took tens of thousands of casualties, there's no way the US will be able to intervene without similar results". The same people projected huge loss of life when invading Iraq. There was no consensus that the Iraqi armed forces would collapse as quickly as they did.

In each case, the US was prepared to sustain significant casualties in order to achieve its military goals.

A ground war with China would be bloodier. But the US wouldn't invade China, and it's possible there might be no significant ground deployment to Taiwan. The potential loss of life to the USAF, USN and USM is no different to what was assumed by commentators for Afghanistan or Iraq for the US Army.

It would be foolish to wait any amount of time, much less close to a century, for such a feeling to develop, but make all the sense in the world for China to feverishly develop its military (without overspending its economy) until the balance in Asia is at a point where it's no longer credible to expect US military intervention anymore than it is to expect Chinese military intervention today if the US attacked Cuba. By then, the correct sequence of actions would be to first unite the ROC through ultimatum and threat of force, and then to cultivate brotherhood.
But if you/Snoop think US intervention is unlikely, what is China waiting for? Beijing offers plenty of ultimatums and military threats to Taiwan but that has just hardened Taiwanese opinion against China.

Also, lets just do a thought experiment here, if China's military development is not as feverish as you hope and the US still has a credible force to respond to a Chinese invasion, are you content to wait for unification beyond 2049? Or is it vital in your opinion that China ensures Taiwan has been safely unified with China before that date?
 
The point was that the US has not refused to take military action just to protect American lives. Commentators said "the Soviets took tens of thousands of casualties, there's no way the US will be able to intervene without similar results". The same people projected huge loss of life when invading Iraq. There was no consensus that the Iraqi armed forces would collapse as quickly as they did.

In each case, the US was prepared to sustain significant casualties in order to achieve its military goals.

A ground war with China would be bloodier. But the US wouldn't invade China, and it's possible there might be no significant ground deployment to Taiwan. The potential loss of life to the USAF, USN and USM is no different to what was assumed by commentators for Afghanistan or Iraq for the US Army.
Terrible terrible logic. The US is not prepared to sustain significant casualties at all. losing a few soldiers due to enemy guerilla warfare is an incredibly small price to pay for war. China can shoot down American aircraft by the droves; it can sink its ships, including aircraft carriers before they are even in range to act. China is one of the few countries that can trade nuclear shots with the US. You equate this to Afghanistan/Iraq?? LOL Your logic is like saying if someone dares fight a child who might kick him in the shin or scratch him, then that's evidence that he'd never back down from a fight with someone who stands a good chance of turning him into a human vegetable (even if he stands a good chance of doing the same). And it would be bad enough if your false equivalence stopped there, but it doesn't because there are already many examples of that person refusing to fight anyone close to his weight rank.
But if you/Snoop think US intervention is unlikely, what is China waiting for?
Being a native English speaker, you should possess greater reading comprehension than this. I made it clear that China is waiting as it builds it military power further. Although American intervention is unlikely now, the danger is not gone. It is still somewhat credible that the US could act and that would cause the conflict to be bloody. Just that possibility could embolden the ROC to fight and cause unnecessary deaths. When China grows to the point where its hard power is beyond America's and it's silly to think that the US could do anything at all in Asia against it, then the ROC will understand that it's time to throw in the towel, and Chinese people won't have to kill other Chinese people across the strait.
Beijing offers plenty of ultimatums and military threats to Taiwan but that has just hardened Taiwanese opinion against China.
Like I said, opinions of the ROC don't matter. They will need to be re-educated like Hong Kong but they need to be reunified first. Waiting for their opinions to welcome reunification, especially when they are so brainwashed, is putting the cart before the horse and a strategy doomed to fail.
Also, lets just do a thought experiment here, if China's military development is not as feverish as you hope and the US still has a credible force to respond to a Chinese invasion, are you content to wait for unification beyond 2049? Or is it vital in your opinion that China ensures Taiwan has been safely unified with China before that date?
Of course there is no deadline. The fruits of China's efforts can only reflect the efforts themselves. If China can grow faster, then we deserve to unify the ROC sooner. If we grow slower, then later. In this world, what you get is based on what you can do. I'm not against waiting; I understand that China needs to wait to build its power further in order to deter bloodshed during the overtake. I am against wasting time waiting for the ROC to have a change of heart.
 
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vesicles

Colonel
I mean that's been a talking point on this forum ever since I first came here. I'd honestly like to know at what stage the balance of power is "sufficiently" in China's favour in a way that could be objectively measured. I see China's continued posturing like the guy who says "yeah, I could take them anytime". Maybe but repeatedly having to say that suggests a form of impotence, even if it's psychological rather than a physical problem.
Then what do Taiwanese worry about? Declare independence! The PLA is a paper tiger after all. They are impotent. Taiwan can be independent now. If you don't believe the PLA is lethal, but still use them as an excuse for not declaring independence, then you are only "preventing" to want independence, yes?
 

supersnoop

Junior Member
Registered Member
China being in a position to seriously hurt Taiwan economically is not a reason to not push harder. If anything you're saying China is in a position to take action but has chosen not to for reasons unknown.

Was it not clear? I said “not necessary (to squeeze)”.

You choose details to try to disqualify the many instances where the US refused to fight a large power over a small ally where actually, when taken together, they present quite a solid picture of US policy. Then you present the biggest false equivalence, which is Iraq and Afghanistan, both of which have no chance of presenting a true fight to the US. I don't think anyone in the world, even people like Gordon Chang, would compare military conflict with China with military conflict with Afghanistan/Iraq.

I think this sums it up. I don't have much to add except for the fact that Vietnam had 50,000 US deaths and Afghanistan has total 2,000 over almost 20 years, so obviously sticking around is not an issue. US police forces basically cumulatively kill that number of Americans every other year.

If you want a link:
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Putting HK aside, it's simply not credible to suggest anywhere near a quarter of Taiwanese could riot in favour of Chinese annexation.

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"The U.S.-based Pew Research Center found that 66% view themselves as Taiwanese, 28% as both Taiwanese and Chinese and 4% as just Chinese."

4% have a "hardcore identity" as you put it, and they're almost certainly mostly in the older generation of people who came over during the Chinese Civil War. Also there were no mass riots when the DPP won in 2016 and 2020.

You are misinterpreting what I am saying.
First, 28 + 4 = 32%. Of course "hardcore Chinese identity" is a subjective label. If you want me to be more precise, then 25 - 30% always identify as Chinese. Taiwanese and Chinese is still Chinese. I've been seeing these reports for the last 20 years and the number has been pretty stable.

Second, I am not talking about civil war, riots or calls for reunification. You made that logical leap. The point of the matter is whether a big chunk of the population wants any changes to the status quo. That percent of the population will likely be staunchly opposed. I'm not even going to bother including a link for surveys to show that even a bigger percentage are fine with the status quo, because they are everywhere.

Even if the DPP had no clear plan, how does that change things for China? Taiwan's economy isn't stagnating, if anything it's doing much better than its neighbours right now.

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I will agree with you that if China is willing to wait until after 2050 or 2100 attitudes in Taiwan may have changed such that peaceful unification with the PRC is much more possible. But waiting another 10 or so years by itself is unlikely to change anything, certainly while China keeps buzzing Taiwan militarily as it creates a feeling that there's already a military conflict going on. China's economy will have grown larger but the economic situation will be more or less as it is now. There's no magical tipping point where if the ratio between the Taiwanese and Chinese economies hits X then Taiwanese will immediately decide unification is necessary.

Wages in Taiwan are amongst the lowest in Asia (one example article,
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). That has been a problem for years now. Anyway, really the point is that PRC is and will always will be the biggest driver of Taiwan's economy. It is impossible for DPP to change this. If Taiwan's economy grows, it is usually because China's is growing. Would it surprise you that China's exports to the US has risen despite the pandemic? Are you going to argue that Taiwan extracts no benefits from that?

I'm not calling for invasion, so that's irrelevant to discuss with me. My point to the previous poster was that it is clear that the PRC leadership does not seek to impose these punitive punishments.
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
The issue with Tiawan, other than what others have laid forward, is hyoothetically say TW gets "independence", that would only mean one thing, it sells its soul to devil and becomes de facto US colony/vassal and at that point US will install missiles and nukes on the island... and Amerikkkas eastward sea naval containment of China would be sealed and done deal...

For obvious reasons, China cannot let that happen... anymore than US would let China take over Pueto Rico, Cuba or Hawaii and put DF hypersonic Mirv nukes and do FON exercises in the Gulf of Mexico


It benefits China to keep status quo for now, and possibly another decade or so, but if US crosses a true rubicon point of no return then that leaves China no choice but to act
 

Nobonita Barua

Junior Member
Registered Member
The point was that the US has not refused to take military action just to protect American lives. Commentators said "the Soviets took tens of thousands of casualties, there's no way the US will be able to intervene without similar results". The same people projected huge loss of life when invading Iraq. There was no consensus that the Iraqi armed forces would collapse as quickly as they did.

In each case, the US was prepared to sustain significant casualties in order to achieve its military goals.

A ground war with China would be bloodier. But the US wouldn't invade China, and it's possible there might be no significant ground deployment to Taiwan. The potential loss of life to the USAF, USN and USM is no different to what was assumed by commentators for Afghanistan or Iraq for the US Army.


But if you/Snoop think US intervention is unlikely, what is China waiting for? Beijing offers plenty of ultimatums and military threats to Taiwan but that has just hardened Taiwanese opinion against China.

Also, lets just do a thought experiment here, if China's military development is not as feverish as you hope and the US still has a credible force to respond to a Chinese invasion, are you content to wait for unification beyond 2049? Or is it vital in your opinion that China ensures Taiwan has been safely unified with China before that date?
Because that would benefit US most. You think US would be there to save Taiwan? ROFL. Those morons can't save themselves against Taliban. US will "defend" Taiwan by trying to make sure China bomb it out of oblivion. So the new "oil sources " which is advanced semiconductor nodes , doesn't fall into mainland China's hands.
If Taiwanese tomorrow say they are American, will they become Americans? Lol. Taiwanese can leave if they don't like it. But te island of China remains with China.
US can intervene in Taiwan if they want to lose Guam & Hawaii. For long time US has been trying to punch way above its height living off the windfall of WW2. I'm more than willing to see it.
 

vesicles

Colonel
But if you/Snoop think US intervention is unlikely, what is China waiting for? Beijing offers plenty of ultimatums and military threats to Taiwan but that has just hardened Taiwanese opinion against China.

Also, lets just do a thought experiment here, if China's military development is not as feverish as you hope and the US still has a credible force to respond to a Chinese invasion, are you content to wait for unification beyond 2049? Or is it vital in your opinion that China ensures Taiwan has been safely unified with China before that date?
If you think the US is definitely on the side of Taiwan, then please allow me to throw the question back at you. What is Taiwan waiting for? It has been the will of 23 million Taiwanese to become independent. It is the responsibility of the Taiwanese government to honor their people's will. If China's intervention is surely deemed unsuccessful, then Taiwan has a real chance of becoming independent. Why hasn't the Taiwanese government done anything? None of them dares to touch the constitution, which specifically declares Taiwan is a part of China and Taiwan will eventual re-unify with the mainland. Heck, they would not even dare to remove the phrase "to adapt the special situation before the eventual unification with the mainland" in their constitution. Shouldn't they at least change their constitution to reflect their will to become independent? Man up! The PLA is a paper tiger. Don't worry about them. Do what you think it's the right thing!
 

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