Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Home court advantage would only somewhat even the odds for China. A fight in the distance pacific would be lopsided.

Even with home court advantage it may not be enough. Again we don’t know how capable PLA is able to fight as a unit, conduct true joint operations, and across all spectrums in a contested environment. It is still a work in progress despite making significant improvements. US has been in continuous warfare for 20 years, it pioneered some of the tactics China is trying to master now.
practice doesn't make perfect. practice makes permanent.

beating up white belts doesn't prepare a fighter for UFC. the fighter that only beats up white belts is worse than a fighter who only trains, because at least the fighter who only trains and conditions doesn't have the illusion that an even fight will be easy.
 

dasCKD

New Member
Registered Member
Home court advantage would only somewhat even the odds for China. A fight in the distance pacific would be lopsided.

Even with home court advantage it may not be enough. Again we don’t know how capable PLA is able to fight as a unit, conduct true joint operations, and across all spectrums in a contested environment. It is still a work in progress despite making significant improvements. US has been in continuous warfare for 20 years, it pioneered some of the tactics China is trying to master now.
Honestly, I see little reason for the PRC to jump the gun now. Despite what I still think is genuinely a weak start to the crisis thanks to bad communications and signaling, it looks like the PRC is going to walk away from this one with a win. The new status quo is tipping towards mainland China and if this situation is secured as the new normal then I see little need for the PRC to push for any further 'concessions' in the short term even from a military perspective.

Even if China really does want to invade, tensions and readiness is high right now. It is better, whether the PRC is planning to go for a peaceful or armed reunification, for them to allow tensions to calm and for them to allow readiness to lapse. A strike on Taiwan will be most effective and devastating once Taiwanese forces are no longer at maximum readiness and aren't prepared for a confrontation. Time favors China. As long as Taiwan doesn't do anything drastic or stupid, there's no need to do anything rash either.
 

tch1972

Junior Member
I think your analysis is wrong simply because the foundation is wrong.

ROC armed forces is filled with museum pieces used by people who mostly are clueless. The old soldiers who have experience and some skill due to being from the KMT era are also the so called "cowards" simply because they know it's terribly futile to fight and they haven't gone through DPP brainwashing.

So to begin with, assuming all the supposed 170 000 Taiwan armed troops can fight at 100% efficiency is being incredibly, fantastically, unrealistic. But even if you voided all morale concerns, the equipment of rebel forces is so far behind government troops, that even that would not stop armed reunification.

"Recent events only prove this reality" like Tsai's ships not firing on government DDGs when they go within 9km of a land based powerplant? If ROC had such might they could prevent AR, why not exercise that might? China had since some time realized that AR is the only route, therefore for this conflict, it is now only waiting for the right moment to strike.

It doesn't really lend more credibility to your post when you even forgot how the PRC governing party is spelled despite it only being a 3 letter word lol

Speaking from my personal experience, i actually took a ride on their army truck when i was training in Southern Taiwan in the 90s.

The exhaust was overwhelming and i got bad headache inhaling the smoke. If they cant even maintain their trucks, i can imagine the state of their army.

It seems quite apparent equipments in Taiwanese armed forces are badly maintained.
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
You are creating a scarecrow.

I'm not talking about that, at no point am I talking about China's ability to invade Taiwan or China to emerge victorious from a war against the US if the former invades the island. You are the second to make the same argument, deviating from the main argument I mentioned.

I must be speaking Greek here. Armed reunification means that China will have to conquer the island by force, whether the US intervenes or not, peaceful reunification is China using all capabilities other than the military route. The @obj 705A gave a good introduction to this.

I didn't talk about war games, I didn't talk about US logistical capacity, I didn't talk about force structure, I didn't talk about geographic advantages, I didn't talk about any of that.

Speaking Greek? More like you vomiting random gibbish now. You said Armed Unification is delusional and unachievable. That implies that China military is incapable of doing such a task. Stop changing the goalpost.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
Speaking Greek? More like you vomiting random gibbish now. You said Armed Unification is delusional and unachievable. That implies that China military is incapable of doing such a task. Stop changing the goalpost.
PR...

 

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Reuters news agency reported that Ou Yang, deputy head of the Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology, a subsidiary of Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, was found dead on Saturday morning in a hotel room in Pingtung County.

According to the preliminary version, he died due to a heart attack as he suffered from a heart disease. No sign of outside interference was found in the hotel room. Even so, the investigation continues.

Ou Yang was on a business trip to Pingtung to directly observe the missile test at the Jiupeng military base, the first phase of which began on Aug. 3. The second and third stages will be held on August 18 and 26, respectively.

Ou Yang, in his position, oversaw the process of creating various types of missile weapons. Currently, in the context of escalating relations with China, the Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology is actively working to increase its production capacity to 500 missiles a year.

Despite the seemingly obvious cause of death for a person suffering from heart disease, police continued to investigate. The death of such a prominent person in the island's defense industry in the face of the threat of a military confrontation with China raises fair doubts.

There is a chance that the Chinese side will eliminate high-ranking representatives of the Taiwan authorities, although it is low. The same Israel regularly carries out the physical elimination of Iranian scientists associated with nuclear or missile programs. And it happened almost immediately after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei.

At the same time, even with Ou Yang's natural death, the very fact of losing the person essentially responsible for carrying out scientific research and missile weapons development during the forced preparation for the defense of the island in connection with a possible PLA operation .

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Taiwan media: The Chinese flag was planted on the websites of several local government agencies in Taiwan amid a live-fire exercise by the PLA.

The Kaohsiung government website was covered with the Chinese flag for more than 10 hours from Friday to Saturday.

The Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs website was down for several hours on August 2, 4 and 5. Of course, as usual, the Taiwanese couldn't help but include Russia here. It is claimed that there were 17 million access attempts per minute from various Chinese and Russian IP addresses.

As a result, central government agencies were ordered to remain on high alert regarding China's cyber activities on the Internet.

In this way, Beijing demonstrated to Taiwan its ability to wage war in cyberspace. In the case of real hostilities, we think the consequences will be much greater.

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Taiwan: Chinese military exercises simulate attack

Aug 6 results:

The Taiwanese military issued a warning and took a number of actions in response to Chinese exercises, including patrolling around the island and preparing land-based missile systems to repel missile attacks;

At least 20 PLA aircraft and 14 ships remain in exercise near the Taiwan Strait;

The Chinese Defense Ministry said it was carrying out military exercises as planned and "testing the possibilities" of land and naval attacks;

Wang Tingyu, Member of Parliament for Taiwan: Taiwan will consider an invasion if Chinese naval forces enter the island's territorial waters. Taiwan "does not want to provoke any conflict", but "whoever dares to invade our country, our home, we have a duty to protect him";

A Chinese military incursion 10 miles off the island's coast would trigger defensive protocols, according to Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian of the American publication Axios.

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So far, that training blockade of Taiwan by the People's Liberation Army of China. Images of PLA exercises in the Taiwan Strait area on August 6, 2022.

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Focus Taiwan: Lithuanian deputy transportation chief to visit Taiwan: MOFA
— "Lithuanian Deputy Transportation Minister Agne Vaiciukeviciute will lead an 11-member delegation on a five-day visit to Taiwan beginning Sunday, according to Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA).

The delegation is to comprise Lithuanian officials and representatives from the electric bus industry, according to a MOFA news release on Saturday.

The delegation is set to visit Taiwan's transportation agencies and leading electric bus manufacturers to explore the possibilities of collaboration in the electric bus, smart and green transportation industries, as well as demonstrate the solidarity between two democratic allies and forge industry chains in the two countries, the MOFA news release said."

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Report:

US, Australia, Japan foreign ministers urge China to 'immediately' cease live-fire drills

South Korea's top diplomat objects to China changing cross-strait status quo by force
 
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