Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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9dashline

9dashline

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obj 705A said:
I will give my prediction of armed reunification a 3 week window. I believe the invasion will occur in this week, if it doesn't happen within this week then in the subsequent two weeks IMO the chances of armed reunification would be reduced to 85%. If it doesn't happen within 3 weeks from now then the chances are fifty fifty it would happen this year. And if it doesn't happen this year then the chances are 0% that it would happen this decade.

By the way here is the anti secession law for those who may wonder what it says, the first 7 articles is about peaceful reunification, while 8 and 9 is about armed reunification:

"Article 8 In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The State Council and the Central Military Commission shall decide on and execute the non-peaceful means and other necessary measures as provided for in the preceding paragraph and shall promptly report to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress."

"Article 9 In the event of employing and executing non-peaceful means and other necessary measures as provided for in this Law, the state shall exert its utmost to protect the lives, property and other legitimate rights and interests of Taiwan civilians and foreign nationals in Taiwan, and to minimize losses. At the same time, the state shall protect the rights and interests of the Taiwan compatriots in other parts of China in accordance with law."
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I agree with all the above except that if it doesnt happen in 2022, the chance is not zero that it doesnt happen this decade... I would still put it at 25% before 2027, if 2027 comes and goes still nothing then < 10% that it happens before 2030s if at all....

I stand by my originial prediction that its going hot sometime in August 2022, while as a subset of that prediction, a more than 50% of AR in August 2022

I will say that law serves hegemony not the other way around, this is just as much true for China as it is for the US. China will attack when it calculates its in its overall net benefit, not because of some article of law
 
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Barefoot

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AndrewS said:
The Washington Post article basically said that:

1. Pelosi would publicly blame Biden if he blocked her from visiting Taiwan. That is credible given Pelosi.

2. Biden didn't want to deal with that domestic political fallout, so he preferred that Pelosi visit Taiwan. So it would be Pelosi that gets the blame when Taiwan suffers.

In comparison, Lithuania can't hurt China or the USA. So Lithuania can be blocked (by both the US and China) from visiting Taiwan.
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Do we know if it is the USA or UK that is putting Lithuania up to this stunt?

As the UK looked to have been the one that put Lithuania up to the Kaliningrad saga, at least the timing of a new deal with the UK suggests so (UK-Lithuania joint declaration on bilateral cooperation May 2022).

BTW, does anyone know where the UK carriers are? If either the USA or China block Lithuania they might have the very scary prospect of answering to her majesty! :mad:)

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Rafi

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New poster on this forum...

I have been impressed with the PRC leadership on using a crisis to further their interests.

The PRC leadership is running rings around the clueless old yankee farts including "sniffer" Biden and "crazy old cat lady" Pelosi
 
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AndrewS

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Barefoot said:
Do we know if it is the USA or UK that is putting Lithuania up to this stunt?
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My read is that Lithuania came up with the idea themselves. I would say that the current government hates anything Communist and they have a similar mindset to Pelosi.

It's worth remembering something that President Ronald Reagan told Gorbachev. If aliens invaded Earth tomorrow, the USA and USSR would bury their differences overnight in the face of a common enemy.
 
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Overbom

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I would normally be annoyed by all these visits to Taiwan by other countries. But with this new status quo, i am quite looking forward to them happening.

For each Lithuanian, UK, German, US, and whatever other puppet country visit, China should enlarge, expand, and extend its exercises in terms of military assets involved, how much into Taiwan's waters they go, the duration of the exercises, live weaponry employed, how much and how many times they fly over Taiwanese Islands and eventually Taiwan itself etc.

By the time 5-10 visits have happened, PLAN and the Chinese Coast Guard should be patrolling Taiwan's "territorial waters" and PLAAF jets should be patrolling Taiwan's airspace.
 
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Petrolicious88

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FriedButter said:
It’s whatever China is able to defeat the US. China has the home turf advantage while the US has huge logistical distances. A peer to peer match over thousands of miles across the ocean is a disaster for the US.
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Home court advantage would only somewhat even the odds for China. A fight in the distance pacific would be lopsided.

Even with home court advantage it may not be enough. Again we don’t know how capable PLA is able to fight as a unit, conduct true joint operations, and across all spectrums in a contested environment. It is still a work in progress despite making significant improvements. US has been in continuous warfare for 20 years, it pioneered some of the tactics China is trying to master now.
 
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AndrewS

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Kich said:
Actually read the article and like my post earlier. US benefits from starting a conflict now.

At least according to the article, some in the US are thinking this way.
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True. As the years go by, the odds get worse and worse for the US.

But remember that we're looking at GDP declines of 25-35% for both China and the USA in a war, presumably from RAND modelling. That is comparable to the Great Depression and will have a global impact.

Who wants that to happen?

It would actually be helpful if this economic analysis was publicly released to sober up extremist views
 
Suetham

Suetham

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FriedButter said:
The only delusional one here is you. There is plenty of discussion on the other main Taiwan thread. Not to mention that the Pentagon own war games are not favourable for the Americans and they will only get worst as China builds up their advance weaponry.

The current issue isn’t China ability to successfully invade Taiwan. They already can under the Pentagon own games. It’s whatever China is able to defeat the US. China has the home turf advantage while the US has huge logistical distances. A peer to peer match over thousands of miles across the ocean is a disaster for the US.
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You are creating a scarecrow.

I'm not talking about that, at no point am I talking about China's ability to invade Taiwan or China to emerge victorious from a war against the US if the former invades the island. You are the second to make the same argument, deviating from the main argument I mentioned.

I must be speaking Greek here. Armed reunification means that China will have to conquer the island by force, whether the US intervenes or not, peaceful reunification is China using all capabilities other than the military route. The @obj 705A gave a good introduction to this.

I didn't talk about war games, I didn't talk about US logistical capacity, I didn't talk about force structure, I didn't talk about geographic advantages, I didn't talk about any of that.

Suetham said:
Translation problem, friend. I'm actually too lazy to edit the comments.

Furthermore, your comment in no way changes what I said, AR is pure illusion, whether Taiwan is militarily weak, militarily strong, or morally decadent.
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PR...
 
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