Extending the exercises until 15th August is very interesting. The intensity of the exercises has tailed off significantly since the first day so I wonder what it will look like on the last few days.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
- Start date
- Status
I would personally expect that the exercises will be relatively tame, since I think the PLA and the PRC has adequately made their point. That said, they might subvert expectations and close the exercises will a full show of force from their carriers or their more modern missile systems. I'm not sure if that is prudent, however. Assuming the UK still insists on sending over their delegates, the PRC might be better placed if they still kept things in their inventory that they can choose to escalate with.
That's actually a separate drill, in Yellow Sea. Maybe just to set up a trap for the coming CSG.
Just do the same thing as the anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden. Rotate ships in and out of the vicinity till it is no longer news. In the mean time, use the opportunity to gather relevant data/lay down sonars.
For a few hours, Pelosi scored a win.
But after this period, I don't see it as a political win for Pelosi or the Democrats.
Both the Republican and Democrat realists already knew that Pelosi's visit was going to result in Taiwan being worse off and briefed the media against Pelosi visiting.
Both Republican and Democrat ideologues and China-haters who cheered on Pelosi want more visits. But the realists will shove into their faces how Taiwan is worse off because of Pelosi's pointless grandstanding visit.
So we'll end up with the Republicans attacking Pelosi for being incompetent on Taiwan and Biden for being too weak to stop Pelosi. Many Republicans will conveniently forget how they actually supported Pelosi's visit.
The mainstream media (both left and right leaning) don't want a US-China war. Nor do they want further political visits to give China an excuse to further weaken Taiwan. So the MSM will also attack Pelosi and use her as an example of what not to do.
This result was obvious last week.
They don’t? That stuff would probably keep people glued to their tvs
If only people still watched TV.
The realist might shove it in their faces, but in politics (especially in highly media-saturated democracies) reputation, face, and narrative is far, far, far more important than reality. For a demonstration of this, you can jump onto reddit or youtube or wherever else the perpetually online millennials and gen-z-ers congregate and see that they are still dunking on China and ignoring the warning of policy experts about the precariousness of the situation. Like 2/3 of the comments I read on r/news about China is calling the PRC crybabies. The reality for the Taiwanese people don't matter to these idiots. All they saw was an American politician thumbing their nose at China and then they see China reacting in a way that they perceive as childish and irrelevant.
Now I could be wrong here. In the coming days, we might see the tides of western public opinion turn as reality sets in. More likely in my view, however, is that the American public as a whole will continue to be unable to look past their egos and their ingrained sense of American exceptionalism and cheer Pelosi on for her stunt.
Again, I am ready to be proven wrong. I just really, really don't think that I will be.
The main stream media, quite frankly, commands almost no respect in Western political discourse. Most politically active Americans will be more than happy to cite CNN or Fox or whatever if it supports their view and narrative, but they'll immediately ignore those narratives if it becomes inconvenient to their feelings and their ideology. Once again, I may be proven wrong. I just really don't think that I will be.
Most Americans don’t care a whit about foreign policy, and those that do are usually the terminally online ideologues and nobody cares about those.
Last edited:
- Status