Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis


Biscuits

Senior Member
Registered Member
Let's hope that he and those who agree with him stay safe and sound.

Especially with the current tension piling on the Taiwanese administration by China through the PLA, the prospect of English Vegetable launching purges against the ROC military has become more likely than ever.
If they had that strength they would have done so already.

One can divide Republic of China forces into 3 groups with different motivation.

1. Patriots believing in the ideals of Sun Yat Sen

2. People who believe the status quo gives them and their families a good life and so is worth defending

3. Jap equivalent of neo nazis believing themselves under a secret mission to bring back Taiwan as a territory of Japan

I would believe that group 2 is by far the largest, and they're also ones which will initially offer most resistance to PLA, whereas group 1 will simply switch sides, because their interest is "a strong China" and since many years, they've been able to see how the Beijing government is far superior, especially in military strength.

The way Beijing can win over group 2 into switching side is by being lenient to rank and file fighters, but they also need demonstrate the ability of the mainland to offer far better living standards. Up until the 2010s, that was not always the case, but now, almost all tier 1 cities have superior conditions. Taiwan Chinese are already migrating to the mainland in search of better paid jobs, however, the people in this group needs to also be convinced that they will be equal citizens to mainland people in the tier 1 cities, just displaying better life quality is not enough if there is a fear that Taiwanese will be repressed.

Group 3 will fight to the death, but they're likely not too numerous in the actual fighting forces, only numerous among the civilian side of the leadership. The problem facing group 3 is that their ambition is inherently incompatible with either 1 or 2, so the moment they expose themselves too much, both 1 and 2 will turn on them.
 

NeutralWarrior

Junior Member
Registered Member
Maybe they got confused with a different exercise, which is in the southern part of Yellow Sea.

Live ammunition in the southern waters of the Yellow Sea from the 6th AUG

The Lianyungang Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning, from August 6 to August 15, from 8:00 to 18:00 every day, live ammunition will be carried out in some waters in the southern part of the Yellow Sea, and it is forbidden to enter.

View attachment 95006


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Come to think of it, the latest exercise by PLA in southern Yellow Sea from 06th to 15th AUG may have something to do with the latest location of USS Ronald Reagan. Is this meant to block Ronald Reagan from entering Taiwan Strait from the south? I think yes.

This is now a game of chess, I hope PLA can check-mate USS Ronald Reagan soon!

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AUG6 Location of USS Ronald Reagan:

USS Ronald Reagan AUG6.jpeg


Announced Southern Yellow Sea Exercise AUG6 to AUG15 by PLA:

yellow sea.jpeg
 

sndef888

Senior Member
Registered Member
If they had that strength they would have done so already.

One can divide Republic of China forces into 3 groups with different motivation.

1. Patriots believing in the ideals of Sun Yat Sen

2. People who believe the status quo gives them and their families a good life and so is worth defending

3. Jap equivalent of neo nazis believing themselves under a secret mission to bring back Taiwan as a territory of Japan

I would believe that group 2 is by far the largest, and they're also ones which will initially offer most resistance to PLA, whereas group 1 will simply switch sides, because their interest is "a strong China" and since many years, they've been able to see how the Beijing government is far superior, especially in military strength.

The way Beijing can win over group 2 into switching side is by being lenient to rank and file fighters, but they also need demonstrate the ability of the mainland to offer far better living standards. Up until the 2010s, that was not always the case, but now, almost all tier 1 cities have superior conditions. Taiwan Chinese are already migrating to the mainland in search of better paid jobs, however, the people in this group needs to also be convinced that they will be equal citizens to mainland people in the tier 1 cities, just displaying better life quality is not enough if there is a fear that Taiwanese will be repressed.

Group 3 will fight to the death, but they're likely not too numerous in the actual fighting forces, only numerous among the civilian side of the leadership. The problem facing group 3 is that their ambition is inherently incompatible with either 1 or 2, so the moment they expose themselves too much, both 1 and 2 will turn on them.
Problem is group 3 controls the government. With the help of CIA/state department manual they're successfully brainwashing citizens into hating the mainland. Look how they banned CTI and nobody cared. Look at how many issues they made up from nothing just to rile up the population against the mainland

Based on my interactions, many taiwanese have turned into the asian equivalent of trump supporters
 

alfreddango

Junior Member
Registered Member
not really, as per shilao and yankeesama understanding, they can't even tell if it's a flanker or a j-10 from their radar...
it's likely that the published identification result of which aircraft is based soly on hte direction and speed of the jet out of the mainland if not directly eyeball it
us istar assets are too far to pass the data to taiwan? like in ukraine I mean
 

lolrus

New Member
Registered Member
Bruh... now? for real ?
I'll need to see more to believe this. How would they even get there by Sunday? What path would they even take, causing flying over mainland would be impossible, and over Russia would be very uncomfortable. There would be no escort, and they definitely won't be getting any US treatment with regards to how restrained China will be in its response. Any commercial airline that does flight to Taiwan won't want to go anywhere near this. It doesn't seem very realistic right now.
 

alfreddango

Junior Member
Registered Member
watch us allies send their delegations one after the other, especially those allies that have degraded relations with china and not strong economic ties
china acted in a reasonably measured way with regards to pelosi (at least for those who don't buy us propaganda); prolonging exercises to sunday it's easy, but then the lithuanians would probably postpone again, in a weird cat and mouse game; I wonder if china will escalate the level of exercises, cause that leads to an ascending spiral of regional tension (from the west pov) and that is probably what the us want
I wonder what china will come up with this time, if the news of this visit is indeed true
 

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