Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy


bajingan

Junior Member
@bajingan

That's were the Russian came in, if the American does use nuke on China they wouldn't hesitate to used on them. That's the principle on MAD. a restrain for nuke power country.
Yea i heard about the "balance of terror" theory somewhere, i am not sure if i 100% agree with the logic though
It goes like this, the us nuke China, China strikes back by nuking not only us but also russia, which in turn will nuke both China, the us and the rest of the world
The logic goes in the aftermath of nuclear exchange between China and russia, a devastated russia is unwilling to be enslaved by a unscatched us or any other countries not devastated by nuclear strikes
Therefore mad situation even if you are not involved in nuclear war
Not sure if this scenario will really works in real life, but i can understand the logic behind it
 

ansy1968

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yea i heard about the "balance of terror" theory somewhere, i am not sure if i 100% agree with the logic though
It goes like this, the us nuke China, China strikes back by nuking not only us but also russia, which in turn will nuke both China, the us and the rest of the world
The logic goes in the aftermath of nuclear exchange between China and russia, a devastated russia is unwilling to be enslaved by a unscatched us or any other countries not devastated by nuclear strikes
Therefore mad situation even if you are not involved in nuclear war
Not sure if this scenario will really works in real life, but i can understand the logic behind it
@bajingan

From what I know if a nation launch multiple missile salvo other Nuclear Nation will launch as well, there's a reason why China had limited nuclear arsenal, and is publicly announce a policy of NO FIRST USE RULE , number one is cost the other is its 3rd artillery Corp or the Rocket force had in its inventory a large number of conventional missile and it will be used in the event of war.
 

In4ser

Junior Member
So I think you outlined a realistic "best case" scenario for China if everything goes ideal and favorable...

But the US isnt just going to roll over and let it happen....

There are a lot of uncertainties but I could see US pushing and forcing China to go to hot war over TW within the next five years...

If that happens and esp. If China loses the war militarily it would be disasterous as all the parties in Asia will realize Uncle Sam still has staying power and fall in line... RCEP will be good as dead, and EU will kowtow to America and join in on the containment know that dust settles and the world see which way the wind blow...

Thats when US takes SCS as concession, TW as a colony and missile base, and imposes SWIFT sanctions on China.. kill all China tech firms and tech industry, and sets the terms of China's engagement with the world at the threat of nuclear blackmail if China doesnt roll over...

The problem is the world is running out of resources, peak oil, peak water, peak uranium, peak everything. There is no room for two superpowers nor the time to try again twice. If US can defeat China in war, even Russia will fall in line and get with the program. Sure US might charge more hegemon tax, but after seeing China defeat, no other players dare challenge American power in the 21st century ever again...

And folks know US is crazy enough to scorth earth policy of risking nuclear apocolypse rather than let status quo play out in which China wins... So even if US lost the TW war it could still do a surprise strategic nuclear first strike decapitation of China and accept the sacrifice of a few glassed cities to maintain its hegemony and to solve the China problem via a Final Solution...

So unless China has a couple thousand nukes magically stashed somewhere that no one knows about, I dont see US not playing the nuclear card after the Taiwan card

Recall the US think tank guy says Amerikkka doesnt tolerate peer competitors and makes sure they all end up in the scrap pile of history

A nation that went all in with monroe doctrine, manifest destiny, genocide and extermination of natives on the way up will do anything to prevent China's rise when itself is on the way down ... thats the danger, you cant outcrazy usa
That is why China needs let the West (especially the US) believe its still top dog for as long as possible while consolidating its gains. The Wolf Warrior Diplomacy was necessary because China needed to the rest of the world that it would stand firm in the face of the hardline policies under Trump.

However, Biden is no Trump. With him, I think China should mirror the new administration and take a more subtle approach when pursuing its own interests. A wounded animal that is cornered is more likely act irrational like starting a war over TW than one that is confident about its superiority (even if delusional). If US wants to spin the truth and claim superficial victories then let it lull its public and lawmakers. National pride and international popularity are of little consequence if it leads the national towards complacency and ignorance like with India.

Just as Republicans and Democrat want to use China as a scapegoat to rally and unite the country, China should counter them by avoiding unnecessary confrontations and let America's own ideological polarization cannibalize the country apart.
 
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ansy1968

Senior Member
Registered Member
That is why China needs let the West (especially the US) believe its still top dog for as long as possible. The Wolf Warrior Diplomacy was necessary because China needed to the rest of the world that it would stand firm in the face of the hardline policies under Trump.

However, Biden is no Trump. With him, I think China should mirror the new administration and take a more subtle when pursuing its own interests. A wounded animal that is cornered is more likely act irrational like launch a suicide attack than one that is confident about its superiority (even if delusional). If US wants to spin the truth truth and claim superficial victories them let it. National pride and popularity are of little consequence if it leads the national towards complacency and ignorance like with India.
@In4ser

Correct, China is on a roll , many countries and people are jealous and angry about its success, better not to brag and work harder, we're still a long way to go, to many gaps to filled in. It's better to focus on our development rather be distracted by their propaganda. The moment you declare your victory is the day you lost your supremacy.
 
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steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is assuming that the USA makes a true recovery and there moral improves under Biden but if he doesn’t succeed in reversing the damage from covid and the trade wars and get back all the jobs list from Trumps handling of covid, there would be a civil war in the USA long before a war with China and if the USA ends up fighting like that, then the USA will not last for long. Also given that the real power of the USA is tied to the US dollar and should that go under, they will lose the ability to pay for military and for resources. You are also assuming that Russia and other nations are not going to help China in the event of a war where the USA attacks first (like they always do) so it will be mutually assure destruction of all three nations, not a defeat of China since Russia knows that they will be next and also note that China has hyper sonic nukes that if the USA strikes first with a decapitation strike, less then 100 nukes (which China obviously has) will come in response to ensure that the USA gets to lose everything in return and Russia will help China to strike the USA as well while there backs are turned given all the help China has given Russia and the half century long humiliation that the USA has subjected Russia with will never go away with just a few nice words from the USA given the USA is much less trustworthy and everyone can see it. So either USA ends up getting destroyed by China in a mutual destruction or China and Russia strike when the USA is at its lowest and rids the world of a nation that has long over stated it’s welcome. There will be no victory or a world where the USA can terrify the world into bending over like they wish for in the coming decades. They tried with the trade wars, HK and the pandemic and all of these tactics failed big time due to hubris and arrogance and simply not only able to keep up with the current times. Also given that Biden has businesses in China and it becomes to stupid for words to suggest a hot war with your business partner that is bring in more month then the salary a president earns. The doom of China will mean the doom of humanity given how much is produced in China and also how many companies in the USA rely on China even more so right now. Hence a hot war will not happen based on how with each year, that the USA is simply running out of resources, innovation in the area that matter and even now they are losing world wide support given how many nations are dreading Biden’s presidency given they propensity for war. If the USA doesn’t fix its fundamental problems, China will eventually become the lesser of there worries.
Also to note is that China has never given a figure in regards to there nuke arsenal and that is something that no one with a brain wants to find out, especially when it has a 30 min deliver time.
Yknow.....

Maybe someone should write a new book call "The Coming Collapse Of America". However unlike GC's pile of bullshit, this time with actual numbers and scenarios.

1611327568197.png

As a US policy maker/action officer, I think China will continue on its path with an aim to gently roll US into the nursing home instead of kicking the crippled giant down a flight of stairs.

The crucial time frame in this scenario is 2025 to 2030. I think China would try to ease the transition and in some ways ease the decline of US.

There will be no kinetic conflict. The powers in this country rest in its financial elites. They have no appetite for a nuclear apocalypses.

If you read Macropolo.org
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, part of China's strategy is to let foreign interest take minority shares in China so decoupling NEVER happens, acting as a circuit breaker for a Taiwan/SCS scenario.

In the last 3 months, we are seeing increasing dispersion between S&P 500 and Vanguard US funds and China focused fund performances. As always, "Money Talks, Bullshit Runs a Marathons".

1611328127745.png
 

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yknow.....

Maybe someone should write a new book call "The Coming Collapse Of America". However unlike GC's pile of bullshit, this time with actual numbers and scenarios.

View attachment 67881

As a US policy maker/action officer, I think China will continue on its path with an aim to gently roll US into the nursing home instead of kicking the crippled giant down a flight of stairs.

The crucial time frame in this scenario is 2025 to 2030. I think China would try to ease the transition and in some ways ease the decline of US.

There will be no kinetic conflict. The powers in this country rest in its financial elites. They have no appetite for a nuclear apocalypses.

If you read Macropolo.org
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, part of China's strategy is to let foreign interest take minority shares in China so decoupling NEVER happens, acting as a circuit breaker for a Taiwan/SCS scenario.

In the last 3 months, we are seeing increasing dispersion between S&P 500 and Vanguard US funds and China focused fund performances. As always, "Money Talks, Bullshit Runs a Marathons".

View attachment 67882
Capture.PNG
 

jshw31

New Member
Registered Member
There will be no kinetic conflict. The powers in this country rest in its financial elites. They have no appetite for a nuclear apocalypses.
Kind of ironic that US capitalism might actually be China's saving grace.

Though I think that this assumption can not be taken for granted anymore. The Trump administration actually went against much of the financial elites. This is probably the biggest divide we've seen between Wall Street and the Oval office in a while and China cannot assume that the US will not reelect another psychopath whose self righteousness overshadows any rational political strategy. It is not out of the question that such a deranged person may be willing to take the whole world down as a dice roll to preserve Western/American Hegemony. Small but real chance.
 

ansy1968

Senior Member
Registered Member
Kind of ironic that US capitalism might actually be China's saving grace.

Though I think that this assumption can not be taken for granted anymore. The Trump administration actually went against much of the financial elites.
@jshw31

I think you're mistaken, it's the other way around, Trump wanted to be part of the financial elite , giving them tax break and other perks. After receiving what they wanted he was thrown out like a used CONDOM and now they wanted to impeach him knowing that Trump will seek another term and may go after them. He was played by the elites.
 
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jshw31

New Member
Registered Member
@jshw31

I think you're mistaken, it's the other way around, Trump wanted to be part of the financial elite , giving them tax break and other perks. After receiving what they wanted he was thrown out like a used CONDOM and now they wanted to impeach him knowing that Trump will seek another term and may go after them. He was played by the elites.
That's definitely true, though I was more referring to his China policy. Wall street is not a fan of Trump's aggressive Chinese policies, both because it increases instability into the financial markets as well as induces possible restrictions on Wall Street's abilities to invest in the most steady high-growth market for the foreseeable future.
 

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