Please publish your book on Amazon. I’ll buy itNo, it won't last that long.
The strain of exceptionalism has a way of puffing up the mediocre and crashing down on the unfortunate.
For a great majority of Americans raised on exceptionalism and enjoying the bounty of our exorbitant privilege (the US Dollar), the realization that we are not that exceptional and that they can neither afford their current purchasing power and compete perpetually with the Asian will be debilitating.
Here is how I think the timeline would unfold:
2023 -2028: China unload a shitload of tech they have been working on since 2017, and funded by the outbound capital during this pandemic. Thing like 14-7nm SC, Augmented Reality, Level 4 automated EV enabled by off board 5G networks, 5G NSA, C929.
2025: China reaches nominal GDP parity with US, continues to push their tech due to their unique economy of scale. So they will attract equally if not better talent with higher pay, while dishing out goods at better quality/performance with lower prices.
2025 - 2030: US undergoes a revenue crisis as T-bill attracts less and less foreign buyers. this will force the government into either accepting higher inflation as it pumps more dollars into the system or adopt austerity measures.
-------Aftermath -----------------------
2030 - 2035: US Military will shrink from its current footprint as remaining discretionary budget is steered toward social programs to maintain the voter base. There will be social unrest as USD has less and less purchasing power. US will attract less and less foreign talents, with the exception of Indians.
By the way the politics are looking, there will be no unified national effort to step up to the plate. The religious fundamentalist will claim that all of this is a result of god's wrath due to our transgender policies and such.
There will also be more discrimination towards Asian. The loss of what some sees as their birthright prosperity and the loss of their loved ones during the pandemic might trigger random acts of violence towards isolated Asians.
The reduced safety net, decrease in military projection and capability and anger towards foreigners will induce a reduction in talent and ultimately innovation.
What will remain is flourishing entertainment industry, NFL/WWE Sports, music empowered by the friction between cultures.
UK (or should I say Wales, in case N.Ireland and Scotland departs for EU) of today is the US of tomorrow. Save for the elite few who works in "The City" and London, most Brits are worse off than they were in the 1950-60s.
The difference is that the Brit were never as religious as Americans, and far more compliant towards their classed elites. This is the unpredictable sprinkle in the national psyche, which could only make the transition more difficult to render.
US has been a melting pot and a beacon mostly because of its prosperity, enabled by its oceans of security and natural abundance. This prosperity has been the bedrock of our country since its founding. Tensions and frictions where brushed over by expansions and industrialization. US has been the leading economy since 1890!
For the Chinese to be on top for at least the remainder of 21st century will be an unprecedented shock this country has never endured. It would take a leader on the scale of Deng (with a 15-20 year term) to restructure the nation and pull it forward, with some drastic changes to the constitution.
For example, this whole states rights mess has been hugely handicap and a source o inefficiency. To successfully compete with China of the future, we might need to radically coalesce resources to muster the convergence to challenge the Chinese.
In a austere environment, will we have the fortitude to sacrifice our own and local resources for the national good? Do we trust the political and elites enough to enable a constitutional restructuring, to adopt a more efficient and technological evolve union?
Likely NO.
Well agreed. This could be turned into a movie. It will sell like hot cakes in China.Please publish your book on Amazon. I’ll buy it
So I think you outlined a realistic "best case" scenario for China if everything goes ideal and favorable...Euphoria or not, I think it's a probably a rational and probable projection.
If you have a divergent timeline or outlook, let hear it and perhaps we can dial it in tighter?!
This is assuming that the USA makes a true recovery and there moral improves under Biden but if he doesn’t succeed in reversing the damage from covid and the trade wars and get back all the jobs list from Trumps handling of covid, there would be a civil war in the USA long before a war with China and if the USA ends up fighting like that, then the USA will not last for long. Also given that the real power of the USA is tied to the US dollar and should that go under, they will lose the ability to pay for military and for resources. You are also assuming that Russia and other nations are not going to help China in the event of a war where the USA attacks first (like they always do) so it will be mutually assure destruction of all three nations, not a defeat of China since Russia knows that they will be next and also note that China has hyper sonic nukes that if the USA strikes first with a decapitation strike, less then 100 nukes (which China obviously has) will come in response to ensure that the USA gets to lose everything in return and Russia will help China to strike the USA as well while there backs are turned given all the help China has given Russia and the half century long humiliation that the USA has subjected Russia with will never go away with just a few nice words from the USA given the USA is much less trustworthy and everyone can see it. So either USA ends up getting destroyed by China in a mutual destruction or China and Russia strike when the USA is at its lowest and rids the world of a nation that has long over stated it’s welcome. There will be no victory or a world where the USA can terrify the world into bending over like they wish for in the coming decades. They tried with the trade wars, HK and the pandemic and all of these tactics failed big time due to hubris and arrogance and simply not only able to keep up with the current times. Also given that Biden has businesses in China and it becomes to stupid for words to suggest a hot war with your business partner that is bring in more month then the salary a president earns. The doom of China will mean the doom of humanity given how much is produced in China and also how many companies in the USA rely on China even more so right now. Hence a hot war will not happen based on how with each year, that the USA is simply running out of resources, innovation in the area that matter and even now they are losing world wide support given how many nations are dreading Biden’s presidency given they propensity for war. If the USA doesn’t fix its fundamental problems, China will eventually become the lesser of there worries.So I think you outlined a realistic "best case" scenario for China if everything goes ideal and favorable...
But the US isnt just going to roll over and let it happen....
There are a lot of uncertainties but I could see US pushing and forcing China to go to hot war over TW within the next five years...
If that happens and esp. If China loses the war militarily it would be disasterous as all the parties in Asia will realize Uncle Sam still has staying power and fall in line... RCEP will be good as dead, and EU will kowtow to America and join in on the containment know that dust settles and the world see which way the wind blow...
Thats when US takes SCS as concession, TW as a colony and missile base, and imposes SWIFT sanctions on China.. kill all China tech firms and tech industry, and sets the terms of China's engagement with the world at the threat of nuclear blackmail if China doesnt roll over...
The problem is the world is running out of resources, peak oil, peak water, peak uranium, peak everything. There is no room for two superpowers nor the time to try again twice. If US can defeat China in war, even Russia will fall in line and get with the program. Sure US might charge more hegemon tax, but after seeing China defeat, no other players dare challenge American power in the 21st century ever again...
And folks know US is crazy enough to scorth earth policy of risking nuclear apocolypse rather than let status quo play out in which China wins... So even if US lost the TW war it could still do a surprise strategic nuclear first strike decapitation of China and accept the sacrifice of a few glassed cities to maintain its hegemony and to solve the China problem via a Final Solution...
So unless China has a couple thousand nukes magically stashed somewhere that no one knows about, I dont see US not playing the nuclear card after the Taiwan card
Recall the US think tank guy says Amerikkka doesnt tolerate peer competitors and makes sure they all end up in the scrap pile of history
A nation that went all in with monroe doctrine, manifest destiny, genocide and extermination of natives on the way up will do anything to prevent China's rise when itself is on the way down ... thats the danger, you cant outcrazy usa
Lou Dobbs reacts to Biden reminiscing on memories with the leader of China
@quantumlightSo I think you outlined a realistic "best case" scenario for China if everything goes ideal and favorable...
But the US isnt just going to roll over and let it happen....
There are a lot of uncertainties but I could see US pushing and forcing China to go to hot war over TW within the next five years...
If that happens and esp. If China loses the war militarily it would be disasterous as all the parties in Asia will realize Uncle Sam still has staying power and fall in line... RCEP will be good as dead, and EU will kowtow to America and join in on the containment know that dust settles and the world see which way the wind blow...
Thats when US takes SCS as concession, TW as a colony and missile base, and imposes SWIFT sanctions on China.. kill all China tech firms and tech industry, and sets the terms of China's engagement with the world at the threat of nuclear blackmail if China doesnt roll over...
The problem is the world is running out of resources, peak oil, peak water, peak uranium, peak everything. There is no room for two superpowers nor the time to try again twice. If US can defeat China in war, even Russia will fall in line and get with the program. Sure US might charge more hegemon tax, but after seeing China defeat, no other players dare challenge American power in the 21st century ever again...
And folks know US is crazy enough to scorth earth policy of risking nuclear apocolypse rather than let status quo play out in which China wins... So even if US lost the TW war it could still do a surprise strategic nuclear first strike decapitation of China and accept the sacrifice of a few glassed cities to maintain its hegemony and to solve the China problem via a Final Solution...
So unless China has a couple thousand nukes magically stashed somewhere that no one knows about, I dont see US not playing the nuclear card after the Taiwan card
Recall the US think tank guy says Amerikkka doesnt tolerate peer competitors and makes sure they all end up in the scrap pile of history
A nation that went all in with monroe doctrine, manifest destiny, genocide and extermination of natives on the way up will do anything to prevent China's rise when itself is on the way down ... thats the danger, you cant outcrazy usa
So I think you outlined a realistic "best case" scenario for China if everything goes ideal and favorable...
But the US isnt just going to roll over and let it happen....
There are a lot of uncertainties but I could see US pushing and forcing China to go to hot war over TW within the next five years...
If that happens and esp. If China loses the war militarily it would be disasterous as all the parties in Asia will realize Uncle Sam still has staying power and fall in line... RCEP will be good as dead, and EU will kowtow to America and join in on the containment know that dust settles and the world see which way the wind blow...
Thats when US takes SCS as concession, TW as a colony and missile base, and imposes SWIFT sanctions on China.. kill all China tech firms and tech industry, and sets the terms of China's engagement with the world at the threat of nuclear blackmail if China doesnt roll over...
The problem is the world is running out of resources, peak oil, peak water, peak uranium, peak everything. There is no room for two superpowers nor the time to try again twice. If US can defeat China in war, even Russia will fall in line and get with the program. Sure US might charge more hegemon tax, but after seeing China defeat, no other players dare challenge American power in the 21st century ever again...
And folks know US is crazy enough to scorth earth policy of risking nuclear apocolypse rather than let status quo play out in which China wins... So even if US lost the TW war it could still do a surprise strategic nuclear first strike decapitation of China and accept the sacrifice of a few glassed cities to maintain its hegemony and to solve the China problem via a Final Solution...
So unless China has a couple thousand nukes magically stashed somewhere that no one knows about, I dont see US not playing the nuclear card after the Taiwan card
Recall the US think tank guy says Amerikkka doesnt tolerate peer competitors and makes sure they all end up in the scrap pile of history
A nation that went all in with monroe doctrine, manifest destiny, genocide and extermination of natives on the way up will do anything to prevent China's rise when itself is on the way down ... thats the danger, you cant outcrazy usa
@bajinganThats the reason why China only having "300" nukes and minimal deterrence posture is one of the few mistakes that CCP made
A huge robust nuclear force will deter the us of even playing the taiwan card
Thankfully the CCP realizing this now
What that tell me is that for world safety, security and enduring peace, that america as a nation state must be destroyed much like how the Xiongnu were destroyed.A nation that went all in with monroe doctrine, manifest destiny, genocide and extermination of natives on the way up will do anything to prevent China's rise when itself is on the way down ... thats the danger, you cant outcrazy usa