Chinese semiconductor thread II

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請各位多多支持贊助問題先生： Paypal: [email protected] 每一集視頻都是一個題目的探討，也是一些相關技術的研究，問題先生花了大量時間搜集資料，確認對照有關數據，進行項目分析與立論，給大家一個比較全面和客觀的認識。 問題先生在半導體行業20多年，有著研發生產設備的實際經驗，所工作的設備在1989和1991兩度拿到總督工業獎。問題先生走遍亞洲各大半導體工廠，對生產程序有深入的認識，從晶圓加工到芯片封裝。而技術方面，基本上自動系統的所有科技都有一定掌握，也做過ASIC設計、OS系統、不同的多工處理，機器語言(assembly language)尤為專長。 非常歡迎各位提出意見，分享想法及資料、知識，共同研究科學科技。更希望大家作出少少的贊助，也可以看廣告30秒以上

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Each video episode explores a specific topic and researches related technologies. Mr. Question spends a significant amount of time collecting data, verifying and comparing relevant information, and conducting project analysis and argumentation to provide a comprehensive and objective understanding.

Mr. Question has over 20 years of experience in the semiconductor industry, possessing practical experience in R&D and production equipment. The equipment he worked on received the Governor's Industrial Award twice, in 1989 and 1991. He has traveled extensively to major semiconductor factories across Asia, gaining in-depth knowledge of production processes, from wafer fabrication to chip packaging. Technically, he has a solid grasp of almost all technologies related to automated systems and has experience in ASIC design, operating systems, various multitasking processes, with particular expertise in machine language (assembly language).

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You're wrong, the claims didn't come from that article, but this one

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China’s influence in the memory market is expected to grow for both buyers and suppliers. The extent of this influence will depend on the new demand environment shaped by

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, technological changes, and the US-China regulations.

How Big is ‘Made in China’ Memory?

Made in China DRAM:

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CXMT is projected to account for 13% of the global capacity, 6% of shipments, and 3.7% of revenue in 2024. By 2025, its capacity is expected to grow to a level similar to that of Micron, the third-largest

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in the US. The lower production and revenue compared to capacity is due to lagging technology, low yield rates, and pricing. However, this gap is expected to narrow.
42% Less Bit Production per Wafer: Chinese semiconductor manufacturer CXMT was estimated to produce 42% fewer bits per wafer in 2024 compared to competitors. This gap could be reduced to 32% by 2025. However, CXMT needs to successfully implement HKMG to improve power consumption and speed. While the yield rate for LPDDR4 is around 80%, the yield rate for the company’s strategic product DDR5 in 2025 has not yet exceeded 50%.
New Opportunities and US Regulations: CXMT has entered the mobile market, which requires low-power processes, leveraging the Chinese market. The expansion of AI in electric vehicles could be a new opportunity for China. Due to US equipment regulations, China is working to close the gap with game-changers like 3D technology or by localizing key parts and materials. However, the localization of equipment, which is expected to expand over the next 1-2 years, will be a challenging endeavor.
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This is published almost a full year ago tho, 16 Jan 2025 is a 9 and a half months ago, the data they produce could be 10 11 12 months ago. Very very very outdated, also projections on chinese semiconductors always deviate by a lot from actual results. I don't know tho where the claim in the article "4.4Gbps, want 5.2Gbps by end of 2025" and HBM3 yield extremely low 10-20%, won't be surprised if that's also super outdated

Counterpoint research was founded by analysts from Korea, India, and UK, per their Linkedin page. Basically, it's a bunch of Koreans asking Koreans what they think the yield would be given presumed inputs and constraints. What a useless analysis, as this information is confidential data, and definitely have zero access to CMXT supplier or internal info.