china/taiwan news

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tamsen_ikard

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Every passing year, there is lesser hope for a peaceful unification. There is no coming back. If a forceful unification happens, it is very unlikely they will get a hong kong style government. Taiwan administration is just making more justification to retake the island. We just hope there is still chance of peace.


I think you misunderstand what peaceful unification actually looks like. There was no way that Taiwan would ever peacefully reunify with the think that "Yey, we are Chinese, and China is so good for us, so lets unify". This type of friendly peaceful unification was never in the cards. This goes against the nature of human beings. Every single separate government would always try to maintain separation and independence as much as possible. Human beings never give up power without coercion. When Taiwanese got seperated due to civil war. They got power to forge their own way. They got their own military and government. They simply have no reason to give up that power.

Not only that, in order to keep that independence, all leaders and elites of a region or a country will try to maximize that seperation by separating cultural similarities, making up alternate histories even creating policies to change the culture to a different one. These are all strategies that have been done in the past in many breakaway regions.

The only way China can take back Taiwan is by demonstrating that they either give up and surrender or lose everything, including their life. China has to make an offer to Taiwan that they cannot refuse. Only with that kind of coercion is a peaceful unification possible.

If you read the history of Hong Kong negotiations, it was the same scenario. British tried many strategies and arguments to keep ruling Hong Kong. China made it clear that they can take Hong Kong in an afternoon. They said unless British made a deal with them, China will announce its own plan and execute it alone. Then Britain had no choice but to accept doing a deal. Then beijing gave them the carrot that, in order to smooth the transition, there will be a 50 year one country two systems. Then Britain agreed because it was either this carrot or the stick of Chinese invasion, destruction and British humiliation.

When China gets strong enough to make it absolutely clear that US is simply too weak to fight a war with China in Asia and win, then China will create absolute fear among Taiwanese that they are doomed. Then a bold Chinese leader will make them an ultimatum that unless they start negotiation with mainland for unification, China will invade or worse bomb them out. The Taiwanese will try to see if they can get help from outside countries. It could be Japan, US or EU. Once they see that they have no help and no way out, then they will decide that negotiating a unification that preserves some of their freedoms is better than a hopeless war and destruction and suicide.

That's how peaceful reunification will happen, through Chinese strength. Not happy happy I am so nice attitude.
 

supersnoop

Major
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I don't believe there have ever been any real intentions or expectations of peaceful reunification with Taiwan on PRC's side. The CCP is ultimately a war time government/party, it would be suicide if it allows a government ran by parties that has literally put anti-communism on their party doctrine, to become a part of the same country. If the CCP has any foresight what-so-ever, it will understand that peaceful reunification will be poison to the entirety of China, it will destroy China from within.
Even one little Hong Kong, which have neither its own military nor a dominant military-political group (party), turned out to be such a problematic issue for China.
The core issue is globalism and one-country-two-systems. Globalism masked the fundamental flaw of the one-country-two-systems. Just like Abe Lincoln said: "A house divided against itself can not stand". China is either standing as a united whole, or in the process of achieving so.

Playing the other side for a moment.
Peaceful unification might not be expected by PRC, but what does Taiwan expect to be without a strong military?
In the end, it comes down to one thing, will someone die for it. A big portion of the population of Taiwan says "no".
Tsai Ing Wen could declare independence tomorrow, and would anyone be surprised if she was the first casualty because there was a coup to maintain the status quo.
The hardcore TI supports are completely delusional. You want independence, and you think Americans will sail/fly over and die by the thousands for it? Even more outrageous are the ones who think JAPAN would fight for them. What a joke. I won't even get into that, too stupid.

tl;dr
There's no real intention on forceful separation either
 

Orthan

Senior Member
Every passing year, there is lesser hope for a peaceful unification. There is no coming back. If a forceful unification happens, it is very unlikely they will get a hong kong style government. Taiwan administration is just making more justification to retake the island. We just hope there is still chance of peace.

I remember since the early 90´s, people talking about war betwen china and taiwan.

It never happens.
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
I remember since the early 90´s, people talking about war betwen china and taiwan.

It never happens.

That was the 90's when western charm offensive on China was the highest. Western engagement was their attempt to stop China from falling Maoism and somehow democratize and westernize due to engagement and economic growth. The biggest obstacle back then was not China, but US. It did not want to provoke China and they thwarted every Taiwanese attempts to declare independence. Taiwanese themselves wanted Independence but could not convince the west.

Times are now different. Now the west is firmly in contain and destroy China with whatever you can mode. Taiwan is now a big asset to provoke and poke China. There is also fear that China is becoming too strong and time is running out for Taiwan. So, there is a strong desire that this is now or never for Taiwan. Unless they get independence now, they will be taken by China in the future since the west will not be strong enough. So, desire for Taiwan independence is the highest both from Taiwan and from the west.

Especially for the west, achieving Taiwan independence is a big victory for them over China. They can humiliate China and feel good about themselves that they showed how weak China is, that it could not stop Taiwan independence.

All these factors are raising tensions to the maximum. next 5-10 years will be most dangerous period where China is not strong enough to make it absolutely certain that they can beat US in Taiwan war. But US is also not sure it can win after the 10 year period. So, there is a sense of urgency in Taiwan to push for it now when China is still weak.

I am not sure China can keep control of the situation where they can pressure Taiwan and US enough to stop Taiwan independence. Maybe Taiwanese are super crazy and will think this is now or never. If so then war is inevitable.

If the Taiwanese on the other hand are sober, they will only do a little bit of salami slicing but not too much to spark a war.

but US will get more and more desperate. It could be US which will poke Taiwan to be more aggressive while it is Taiwan that might become the more mature party.

War happens when one of the parties are not driven by rational thinking and becomes blinded by misunderstanding of their own power or the power of the opponent. War never happens all parties are rational and have solid understanding about who can win or lose.

Let's see if all parties remain rational. Right now both Taiwan and US are becoming more and more delusional. So, we don't know.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Are SU-35 actually in service with PLAAF, I thought they just bought some to study. Like originally they wanted to buy just 4 and the Russian yelled at them saying can you be any less blatant when you buy stuff just to reverse engineer, so they ended up buying 24 instead.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Are SU-35 actually in service with PLAAF, I thought they just bought some to study. Like originally they wanted to buy just 4 and the Russian yelled at them saying can you be any less blatant when you buy stuff just to reverse engineer, so they ended up buying 24 instead.

Yes they are in service.

There is limited technology in the Su-35 that would make it worth buying merely for reverse engineering. Maybe 10 or 20 years ago it would've been worthwhile, but when they bought it, it was a supplement to the PLA's long range 4+ gen fighter fleet.
 
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