China demographics thread.

supercat

Major
You CAN turn the tide and you MUST turn the tide. Pointing to the US as an example makes no sense because US births aren't falling at 18 percent a year. Even if China can maintain stability in the birth rate similar to the US, it would be a win compared to what's going on now.
Almost all industrialized nations face an unfavorable demographic profile in the future like China does, including the U.S.:

US needs more Asians to avoid demographic death
Skills-based immigration system could halt the demographic winter that has descended on America

Now that Elon Musk has tweeted that “population collapse is potentially the greatest risk to the future of civilization,” it must be true. America’s total fertility rate fell in 2020 to only 1.67 births per female, the lowest in history, and well below the replacement level of 2.1.
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sndef888

Senior Member
Registered Member

Weibo bars Chinese economist's posts after suggestion to boost birth rate​


BEIJING, Jan 13 (Reuters) - A high-profile Chinese economist has been banned from posting on the Weibo social media platform after drawing controversy over suggestions that the central bank set up a $314 billion "fertility fund" to encourage people to have more babies.

The Weibo account of Ren Zeping, a former chief economist for debt-laden property giant China Evergrande Group
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, where he has 3.6 million followers, carries a notice saying that "due to violations of related laws and regulations, the user is currently banned from posting."

It did not elaborate on what particular law or regulation he was deemed to have violated. The birthrate in the world's most populous country has been a concern of authorities for generations.

The ban, imposed on Wednesday, will last two weeks, according to the state-run Securities Times newspaper, citing unidentified sources.


Ren this week published two essays suggesting that the "most pragmatic and most effective" way to increase China's plunging birth rate would be for the central bank to print 2 trillion yuan ($314 billion) for a fertility fund to be distributed as monthly cash payments for every child.

Ren wrote that if the central bank followed his suggestion, China could add 50 million births over the next decade, pushing its birth rate above the replacement rate and preventing a decrease in the overall population.


Ren did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

For decades, China imposed a strict "one child" policy to limit population growth.


The birth rate in 2020 dropped to a record-low of 8.52 births per 1,000 people, or below 1%, official statistics showed last November and in May, the government announced that married couples may have up to three children in a bid to boost births.

Ren's essays, originally published on his WeChat account and reposted to Weibo where they drew widespread discussion, were no longer available on either platform on Thursday.

His WeChat account, however, remains active although he did not post anything new after the Weibo ban. The Securities Times also reported that the Weibo ban did not apply to other social media platforms.

No stranger to controversy, Ren began his career as an economist with the research arm of China's State Council, or cabinet. He rose to fame for accurately predicting the peak and crash of China's stock market in 2015.

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We've seen from other asian countries that monetary rewards don't really work, unless they're on a scale we've never seen before.

What works is reducing cost of living and reducing urbanisation, the former China is doing but not the latter
 

Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member

China population: 2021 birth data to offer fresh insight into demographic crisis​

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  • Annual data will show whether China’s number of births and birth rate hit record lows in 2021, and will give breakdowns in terms of age, gender and residence
  • Demographic figures from the National Bureau of Statistics also factor into the national economic performance report due on Monday
When China unveils its 2021 birth totals on Monday, the revelation will cast the spotlight on the impact of the three-child policy in its debut year – a year that featured widespread and high-level discussions over how the nation must address its worsening demographic crisis.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is also expected to release 2021’s year-end population, annual birth rate and breakdowns in terms of age, gender and residence, according to the official schedule and conventional practices.

The demographic figures will factor into 2021’s national economic performance report that should also come out on Monday. That report will give China’s economic growth rate in 2021.
Annual data will also show whether the country’s number of births and birth rate hit record lows in 2021, shedding fresh light on how soon
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.

That would offer a long-awaited official gauge of the country’s current demographic status following the
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results that were revealed in May. Those results showed that births in 2020 drop sharply to 12 million – down from 14.65 million in 2019, and the lowest point in a nearly six decades.

Beijing responded by further loosening its controversial birth restrictions, allowing couples to have
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.

Experts have warned that the country could hit its demographic breaking point more quickly than previously expected, resulting in a dwindling labour force, a strained pension system, and a rethink of Beijing’s inward-facing consumption strategy known as
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.

“We estimated that the number of national births in 2021 will drop by 13-20 per cent from 2020 – the number will be between 9.5 million and 10.5 million,” said YuWa Population Research, a think tank established by some of the nation’s leading advocates for lifting birth restrictions, in a report published last month.

“If the number of newborns is close to the lower limit of the forecast, the total population is bound to enter a negative growth,” the report added. That would indicate there are more people leaving the population than joining it.

According to the official China Statistical Yearbook released last month, 2020’s birth rate fell to a record low 8.52 births per 1,000 people.

The country recorded a fertility rate of just 1.3 children per woman in 2020, below the rate of 2.1 is needed to maintain a stable population. China’s rate was lower than the 1.34 of Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, which has struggled with an ageing and shrinking population for decades.

Singapore had an even lower rate of 1.1. The city state has been trying to boost its birth rate by granting S$8,000 in cash gifts to couples having their first or second child, and S$10,000 for each additional child.

After China’s census, many local-level authorities across the country stepped up their efforts to encourage more births, including by offering subsidies, lending money and granting longer parental leaves to those who have a second or third child.

One county is essentially playing Cupid by
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via an official database for matchmaking purposes.

Other responses have sparked controversial and online censorship. Last week, a prominent economist called on China’s central bank to
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to encourage births. Weibo, China’s version of Twitter, then
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from posting, saying he had “violated relevant laws and regulations”.

Some local government statistics have already given sporadic insight into the population figures for last year, though China does not release national population data on a quarterly or half-yearly basis.

Authorities in Anhui province, one of China’s major sources of migrant workers, declared that
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, and they were expecting a year-on-year drop of 17.8 per cent in 2021 in an official document from September.

Henan, the country’s third-most-populous province, showed an 18.8 per cent decline in the number of newborns during the first nine months of last year, according to the official statistics pertaining to disease screenings among newborns.

Guiyang city, capital of Guizhou province, registered 41,908 births among permanent residents in the first 11 months of 2021, down 13.3 per cent from a year prior. China conducts its national census every 10 years. Five years after every census, 1 per cent of the population is sampled. And in other years, just 0.1 per cent of the population is sampled, according to authorities.

Last January, however, the bureau did not publish the annual demographic numbers. Instead, they were released along with the census results in May.

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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
The question is if the births will still drastically drop in 2022 from 2021 or stabilise. Hope it can stabilise.
Supposedly the 2021 births were even lower than 2022.

We will see. If the news is bad, maybe that could push the government to take decisive measures
 

Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member
Need to first radically reform the national real estate sector, and dump the private entrepreneurs and other interests that only go for profit above societal and civilization well being in the dustbin of history. Also need to reduce the working week to a maximum of 30-40 hours so that people have a chance to start a family. A lot need to be done bordering on a wholesale societal transformation to turn the tide.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Need to first radically reform the national real estate sector, and dump the private entrepreneurs and other interests that only go for profit above societal and civilization well being in the dustbin of history. Also need to reduce the working week to a maximum of 30-40 hours so that people have a chance to start a family. A lot need to be done bordering on a wholesale societal transformation to turn the tide.
Property sector prices are already getting reduced due to deleveraging.

Do you want an even more decline in prices? That could lead to financial instability
 

Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member
Property sector prices are already getting reduced due to deleveraging.

Do you want an even more decline in prices? That could lead to financial instability
Housing needs to be a resource that is easily available to everyone who wants to start a family. The modern housing market is to expansive for a majority of the people. That is absolutely not healthy.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Housing needs to be a resource that is easily available to everyone who wants to start a family. The modern housing market is to expansive for a majority of the people. That is absolutely not healthy.
I don't disagree, I am just saying that there cant be a large and sudden decrease in prices because this could create a financial crisis.

Think it that way, every year let's say there is 6% increase in people's incomes while house prices are reduced by -1%. That means that houses are cheaper, and income is higher, which means that housing situation for common people has improved a "lot" in just 1 year.

Keep this up for 5 more years and there would be a tremendous change on housing (for the benefit of the people)
 
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