China demographics thread.

[Overbom]

Chinese mothers gave birth to 10.62 million babies last year, down from 12 million in 2020

2020 was also a bad year, so if 2021 is even less than 2020, then

Chinese mothers gave birth to 10.62 million babies last year, an 11.5 per cent drop from 2020

a 11.5% drop in a single year (2020 was also not a good year for births) is really bad


Anyway, China should 100% focus on robotics to to patch up some of the consequences of bad demographics. However robotics will not solve everything, the government needs to find a way to solve this issue asap.

 

[Chilled_k6]

Israel is rife with Western degeneracy including prominent gay pride parades. The reason I think their fertility rate is so high is mostly due to their fear of being genocided which is beaten into their head at a young age.

I don't think any of China's current policies(banning boybands, private tutoring, etc.) will make a significant difference. China needs to copy Israel and instill a fear in their population of losing their Chinese identity by foreign forces the way Israel instills a fear in their population of losing their Jewish identity by foreign forces. A mass propaganda campaign starting in elementary school is the only way to increase fertility in any meaningful way.

The interesting thing about the Jews in America is that the secular ones actually have some of the lowest fertility rates in the country. This contrasts greatly with Israel's numbers. I do think the current political situation, history, and the fact that many are descendants of Holocaust created this unique situation in a well developed country where people have a mission to perpetuate the next generation, rather than European or Japanese style malaise. Israel has zero strategic depth with their neighbors having some the the highest birth rates in the world so their population is always hyper alert to this.

From what I see China is currently more like Japan than Israel so it will take a massive cultural shift. However, China does have a larger rural population by proportion and a massive population base to begin with, so there's more leeway here with the 3 child policy. Ultimately China seems to perform best in crisis mode like covid so the poor numbers are the wakeup call needed and maybe, a blessing in disguise.

 

[Overbom]

To understand how bad these news are:

Births in China:
2018: 15.23 million
2019: 14.6 million
2020: 12.02 million
2021: 10.62 million

I would say this is crisis-level data and trajectory

 

[sinophilia]

The interesting thing about the Jews in America is that the secular ones actually have some of the lowest fertility rates in the country. This contrasts greatly with Israel's numbers. I do think the current political situation, history, and the fact that many are descendants of Holocaust created this unique situation in a well developed country where people have a mission to perpetuate the next generation, rather than European or Japanese style malaise. Israel has zero strategic depth with their neighbors having some the the highest birth rates in the world so their population is always hyper alert to this.

From what I see China is currently more like Japan than Israel so it will take a massive cultural shift. However, China does have a larger rural population by proportion and a massive population base to begin with, so there's more leeway here with the 3 child policy. Ultimately China seems to perform best in crisis mode like covid so the poor numbers are the wakeup call needed and maybe, a blessing in disguise.

The worst thing would be trying to push rural couples to have more children. China knows this which is why it's trying to push couples in the most advanced cities to have kids over the most impoverished.

Israeli Jews are also only ~40% Ashkenazi, while in American they are 90-95% of the total Jewish population. Ashkenazi's have much higher IQs and are far more liberal (both in America and Israel), not including Haredi Jews which are far more conservative and lower IQ regardless of ethnic origin.

 

[sinophilia]

To understand how bad these news are:

Births in China:
2018: 15.23 million
2019: 14.6 million
2020: 12.02 million
2021: 10.62 million

I would say this is crisis-level data and trajectory

Absolutely a CALAMITY.

Chinese births in 2018 were already very low. To drop in 3 years another 30% is truly catastrophic. Could easily be the single greatest drop even percentage-wise in modern history.

 

[Overbom]

Absolutely a CALAMITY.

Chinese births in 2018 were already very low. To drop in 3 years another 30% is truly catastrophic. Could easily be the single greatest drop even percentage-wise in modern history.

Yes, China urgently needs a radical solution to this problem.

Either immediately raise births or introduce immigration from East Asia or both.

Can you imagine what this year's births will be; what if they fall below 10 million?...
Something needs to be done urgently

I would prefer to first try radical domestic measures before going the immigration route from the region (not immigration from the whole world)

 

[sinophilia]

Yes, China urgently needs a radical solution to this problem.

Either immediately raise births or introduce immigration from East Asia or both.

Can you imagine what this year's births will be; what if they fall below 10 million?...
Something needs to be done urgently

I would prefer to first try radical domestic measures before going the immigration route from the region (not immigration from the whole world)

Immigration from the region is a non-starter. Not even accounting for the lack of Japanese immigrants to anywhere in the world historically (small populations migrating to Brazil and the US are exceptions not the rule), you have to take into account:

1: These populations, in Korea, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan are experiencing fertility crises themselves. Some of these places are already in negative population growth aka decline. South Korea just got there in fact.

2: Even if these populations were both culturally amenable to immigration and had large surpluses of young people (they have neither) , you still have to deal with the fact that China is a gargantuan nation in population size. I don't think people fully realize the scale here. If those other conditions were somehow met, it would still not put a dent in the issue.

Basically, even if China could get young Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese to somehow migrate at fairly high numbers, the changes would be marginal if you consider the population size of China 1.4 billion. Mexico alone is almost 40% the size of the US in population. There is no country like that for China nearby, except India. Unless you want to welcome millions of Indians in every year, then immigration is a non-starter. The only way is for Chinese people themselves to remedy this.

 

[Overbom]

The only way is for Chinese people themselves to remedy this.

What would you suggest to urgently solve this?

Personally my nuclear option (only to be used as the last measure) is banning contraceptives and the last but most devasting action would be making non-marital s*x illegal in order to force everyone into marriage (even if they don't want to).
Or ban abortion

That's it.

Either births will increase due to other actions taken by the government or nuclear option will be deployed.
Or it does nothing and allows births to decline to 9, then 8 then 7 million by 2030

 

[FangYuan]

Basically, even if China could get young Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese to somehow migrate at fairly high numbers, the changes would be marginal if you consider the population size of China 1.4 billion. Mexico alone is almost 40% the size of the US in population. There is no country like that for China nearby, except India. Unless you want to welcome millions of Indians in every year, then immigration is a non-starter. The only way is for Chinese people themselves to remedy this.

Millions of Indians move into China. This is the script in a horror movie.

 

[Overbom]

Millions of Indians move into China. This is the script in a horror movie.

Look at what happened in Singapore...