Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[Michaelsinodef]

but those movements could easily been tracked via satellite images and random folks who have nothing better to do taking pictures.

The US might have an idea or could see with their satelites, although that is at the end of the day a maybe, cuz we really don't know how much monitoring and info they can have.

As for actual people on the ground taking photos and them leaking on the internet? Happens yes, but not always not to mention those bases might not be that close to urban places.

Lastly, they might fire directly from the base or from nearby, which means they can stay in the base and quickly moblize/get ready to fire within say 1-3 hours.

 

[Engineer]

There are so many bad takes on this thread.

• Shooting down Pelosi's plane.
  It isn't going to be an issue. If the USAF is worth its salts, it isn't going to let PLAAF get close. The question you lots should be asking is whether USAF would fire first if PLAAF insists on intercepting Pelosi's plane. If yes, then the firefight would start long before Pelosi's plane gets into range, leaving plenty of time for her to fly away.
  
  
• China is not ready for war yet.
  Yeah, no shit. That's why the US is going to start one before China gets ready. Do you lots really think US is going to sit idly by while China surpasses the US in every metrics?
  
  
• China should make public the number of nuclear weapons.
  That's not how it works. If you have no warheads but the US says you have 300 warheads, then you have 300 warheads. If you have 3000 warheads but the US says you only have 300 warheads, then you have only 300 warheads. See how this works? Fixating on the public figure is meaningless.
  
  
• Just let her land and reach a compromise.
  This is not going to work. The US hasn't shown any willingness to compromise for the past few years, what makes you lots think that is going to change now? The US isn't even willing to lift its own import tariffs that are wrecking the US's economy. The US is clearly not an entity that can be reasoned with.
  
  
• It's just a visit, not crossing China's red line.
  Oh, but it is, because Pelosi could then announce official recognition of Taiwan as an independent state. And look, there are conveniently battle groups around Taiwan ready to offer immediate protection, and they will only get more numerous as time goes on. Fait accompli. The US couldn't hope for a better outcome: incorporate Taiwan as a forward base against China, discredit China from being able to standup to the US with the international community falls in line behind the US as a result, and last but not least wreck havoc in China's internal politics.
  
  
• There is really nothing China can do because of sanctions blah blah.
  Ah well, I guess when push comes to shove, the US could always kick out Chinese representatives in the UN. The US could then pass any resolution it wants to punish China and China would have no choice but to comply. It's GG then and China should just surrender right now... na, just kidding. Instead of wasting time worrying about going kinetic or not, focus instead on how to go kinetic and buy another 10 years of time for China.

 

[emblem21]

Hi all,

War is the extension of politics.

Some factors in to play:

Local US Politics:
- Democrats are in for a hammering they haven't recieved in a long time due to US being actually being in recession. Biden is the most unpopular leader with questionable mental health. His no. 2 is so bad that Biden could get more votes if he was in ICU. So democrats are desperate to change the messaging from inflation and recession.

Ukraine war happened too early, the fatigue has set in, it isn't even a top headline daily anymore. Russia didn't run out of missiles in march and widened up after making mistakes early on and are gradually progressing. The ruble and economy are stable and the sanctions are biting back.

The Pelosi drama is a win-win at first thought. If Pelosi lands etc without any serious consequence, Democrats can claim 'we showed em!'. Normally, this messaging would die down as well by November and won't help democrats.

If China responds in any an impactful manner, then that will be the steroid injection into 'ChInA bAd' narrative. This messaging will sustain at a higher pitch and will allow democrats some distraction from the local economic issues. If Pelosi is hit, then China is offering US a cassus belli whether you guys agree or not. Public in west would and would be happy to part with their tax money to hit back at China. This is playing straight into their hands.

USA wins in both scenarios unless China can humiliate USA without hitting.

Furthermore, long term US policy is obviously to keep goading China into making mistakes and generate more bad PR so they can convince more of their allies to decouple faster.

Chinese Politics:
Now CCP has decided for whatever reason that this is the hill they will fight on. I feel they could've decided they'd fight on another hill, but it is what it is. Seeing the local social media trends, the public is laser focused and hyped. The legitimacy of CCP is at stake. The expectations have been set high and if they are not delivered it will certainly hurt CCP's image and US will walk away with an easy win.

Things such as:
- Live excercises,
- More rhetoric of this and that,
Etc will not satisfy the public.

The public expects something meaningful and consequential.

At the same time, I don't think CCP are dumb enough to start a direct war with US and allies. US is baiting them, and hoping to further galvanize their allies.

CCPs ideal response should be squarely on (1) Taiwan directly, and (2) indirectly, make the conflict with China unpopular amongst US masses. US lost Vietnam and Afghanistan not because they couldn't pound the local militias indefinitely, but because public had enough of it and it became a political liability. Hitting Pelosi will make a war against China more popular in west, hence it's counter-productive.

So with all of the above, what are the options on esscalatory ladder:l and it doesn't have to be instant, but multiple over multiple schedules.

1. China can take over some of the Islands. Warn that any economic sanctions from West, especially Europe will mean that they will retaliate by assisting Russia in fighting Ukraine. Ukraine is a proxy for west, where they hope to cut down Putin without sacrificing any of their own, an ideal scenario they hope to support indefinately. This suddenly becomes very expensive if China backs Russia, then Ukraine is a no win scenario for the West unless they wish to start a nuclear war with Russia. So, counter-baited. Also allows China go test their equipment in real world scenario. China can claim if West interferes in its internal matters, it will interfere in European matters.

There will be economic costs for all sides, but frankly, West is already through trade war and other restrictions, attempting that, but trying to minimize their blowback. This will neuter that strategy.

Taiwan would need to be made example of to deter local lapdogs like India and Japan not be a punching bag.

2. Announce ambiguous no fly zone over Taiwan, Taiwan and allies would need to escort every civilian aircraft, China can pick and choose, creating alot of cost with nothing on it. They can again warn any sanctions will result in Ukraine scenario mentioned above. It's a trump card.

3. Rare earth metals, start charging 50% Pelosi tax for x number of months, you know it's not permanent and not super escalatory, it hits US consumers, creates inflation without much impact. US is already busy trying to find alternate supply chains so milk this cow now.

4. Other factors that create inflationary impacts indirectly. Perhaps port closures due to military excercises. Global supply chains are expensive and fucked as they are, this creates more drama and makes things difficult.

5. Other indirect factors: oil etc, they can push Iran to go nuclear and bait a strike if things don't remain neutral on that front. Iran is willing to bat for Russia right now, they'll be delighted with China on their side.

6. Immediately start moving their reserves out of jurisdictions that can be locked / stolen like Russians and Iranians faced. This is key, if China isn't doing this already after Russia, now is the time.

7. Lots of private Chinese citizen investments sitting in west that can be stolen, start making a plan to get rid of those.

8. Seriously consider Rapid build up and preparation under pretext of Pelosi provocation for unification within days/weeks before US and allies can mobilize and [ eventually go for it.]( I will explain why time isn't necessarily on Chinese side)

The solution is to counter bait and make life miserable for the political elite. Knee jerk reactions like sHoOT dOwN pEloSi are childish and short sighted and wet dream come true for US.

Is time in China's side? Yes and no.

US has waken up, they're expediting 6th gen fighters, focusing on key technologies to stay ahead (recent example of Semiconductor subsidies) abd trying to limit China in areas it has edge in like cutting down Huawei, arguably which would have been no. 1 mobile manufacturer today but now is out of the picture due to 5g and other restrictions. No Chinese corporation will be allowed to become global leaders in critical industries and they will be hit hard under pretext of 'national security'.

They are also rallying allies, AUKUS is one example, there is talk of Economic NATO etc. They are going to do what every power would do in this scenario. China is not going to be against US alone in 10-20 years, theyd be up against a more armed up Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia. (Not sure about India since they're so incompetent), but all of that Economic might will be much bigger than China even if China surpasses US one on one.

So I think the time window for reunification is earlier rather than later.

Hopefully China doesn’t shoot this idiot down atm but rather use this as a chance to rearm and simply show that unlike last time with the carrier, that this time China has options in how to react to the USA and give that the US economy is not doing well right now, China can easily strike there with a vengeance along with interesting Defense fund and having a greater incentive to dumping the dollar. As long as China doesn’t let her land completely unopposed, this is a win of itself given how much is done to help her to arrive in Taiwan whereas in the past this would be unthinkable. Keep in mind that her presence in Taiwan isn’t going to help the US economy in anyway. To anyone that says the USA could use this as a rallying more to dump more money into the military, well if the US dollar loses its value, they cannot pay their staff nor that they purchase the required resources to make the weapons to actually fight a 2 way war. Once China does away with the US dollar along with cementing their strength, then the time will come for China to do away with this bi!ch. either via sanctions or simply letting the internal civil issues take care of this 81 year old trash. Also considering that Taiwan is on such ultra high alert right now, means they are not quite so confident in their sugar daddy either.

 

[supercat]

People who think that the US is intentionally baiting China for war are deluded.

Some policy makers in the Biden regime want to trigger a "Pearl Harbour" moment desperately to whip up anti-China hatred in the U.S. (yes, they don't think there is enough anti-China hatred now!) and to portray the U.S. as the "great savior" of the mankind against evil China.

Thus, when Jake Sullivan observes that there is not enough anti-China sentiment to bolster an image of the United States as a “saviour of mankind” against China and that America is in need of a “Pearl Harbour moment” I would be very wary.

The circus around Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in the coming days, and evident glee that is coming forth from many of these

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over this prospect is a clear sign that something incredibly reckless and stupid is about to happen.

Pelosi’s airplane might indeed be shot down on her completely irrelevant and unnecessary trip to Taiwan, and if it is, don’t be surprised if it was the Americans themselves who are behind it, who have shown they are willing to do anything for that “Pearl Harbour moment.”

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If Pelosi visits Taiwan without any incident, then one thing is certain: the Chinese government has been thoroughly infiltrated by U.S. spy ring.

 

[horse]

I think you are viewing US alone and not with atleast it's western european allies. As you saw with Russia, Europeans will take the cost to it's own economies.

You're banking a strategy on the well intentions of others.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Some policy makers in the Biden regime want to trigger a "Pearl Harbour" moment desperately to whip up anti-China hatred in the U.S. (yes, they don't think there is enough anti-China hatred now!) and to portray the U.S. as the "great savior" of the mankind against evil China.

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If Pelosi visits Taiwan without any incident, then one thing is certain: the Chinese government has been thoroughly infiltrated by U.S. spy ring.

Those cheeky bastards are gonna sacrifice Pelosi for a Pearl Harbour moment. Does she even know about this?

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

Just curious. Could President Xi save face and not lose credibility if he were to order the detonation of a full-yield DF-41 warhead(s) (a test similar to the 1966 one involving the DF-2) over Nop Nur once Pelosi arrives in Taipei?

Another option could be to fly two (one launch from TEL, the other from a Silo or train) DF-41s carrying dummy warheads over Taipei and the Australian Capital toward South Pacific in full-range tests to demonstrate DF-41's capabilities?

Could these be face-saving options should Pelosi press forward (which is the likely scenario now)?

 

[siegecrossbow]

Just curious. Could President Xi save face and not lose credibility if he were to order the detonation of a full-yield DF-41 warhead(s) (a test similar to the 1966 one involving the DF-2) over Nop Nur once Pelosi arrives in Taipei?

Another option could be to fly two (one launch from TEL, the other from a Silo or train) DF-41s carrying dummy warheads over Taipei and the Australian Capital toward South Pacific in full-range tests to demonstrate DF-41's capabilities?

Could these be face-saving options should Pelosi press forward (which is the likely scenario now)?

Isn't what you suggested like unclogging a toilet by blowing up the pantry?

 

[texx1]

Now let's examine the assumptions that suggest China will go kinetic.
For 1 here, I'm ambiguous. CPC operates on mysterious terms, you never know what happens on top, and anyone who claims who knows anything is probably bullshitting or spreading propaganda. It is 2017 that CPC removed presidential limits, but what does it mean? China has 3 key positions, chairman of the central military commission, president of PRC, and general secretary of the CPC. Xi is all 3, but one would argue that chairman of CMC and general secretary of CPC matters much more than president of PRC. The paramount leader of China is not always the person holding the president position, but the one who controls the party and CMC. So in this lens, that 2017 decision to scarp presidential terms if kind of meaningless because there is no term limit on CMC and CPC chairman/general secretary.
But, nothing means nothing, I think the 2017 removal of presidential term limit is also a political message, since it is a decision that all high ranking CPC members must vote on, so there must be consensus here. My take is that the higher ups in CPC may realized that going into the 2020s China will be in a peroid of turmoil and it needs a strong, powerful, and stable leader, and perhaps Xi is the correct person to ensure the party and the country's survival. The 2017 term limit change is just a public announcement of this. If this is the case, then that may mean that Xi is set to have a successful outcome this congress regardless since that decision has been made 5 years ago (think about Shandong carrier, many people speculate that it is required by CMC whereas Navy wanted to go straight to 003 after Liaoning, but CMC believed having another carrier for early 2020s will be vital to nation's security and ordered the Navy to build 002 before pursuing a 003, and how Shandong is actually being used right now in a Taiwan situation - if CMC and CPC saw this coming in early 2010s when building their warships, why would they decide right now in 2022 whether the nation's paramount leader should stay or not?).
If the outcome of this year's congress was set in stone many years ago and Xi will stay on since that is CPC's consensus for the past couple of years, then how much would a Taiwan scenario change the outcome of that pre-established decision? It is hard to say, and I have no definitive answer.

Xi is not Deng. He doesn't have the same political capital from Deng's revolutionary history or military prestige accumulated from civil war victories (thus full control of PLA). After retirement in 89, Deng still exercised his power behind the scene and managed to maintain his paramount leader status without any official party ranks or governmental positions. When Deng did his southern tour (further supporting opening up) in 1992, he had already resigned all his party and governmental positions. He went to Shenzhen as a regular CCP member.

IMO, Xi still needs the political capital stemming from holding official party positions in order to project his control. Consensus could change. Xi's response to new political developments (Pelosi visit) could very well affect already established plans considering how June 4 incident brought down Zhao Ziyang (then General secretary). Therefore, I expect Xi's response would be at least on par with what Jiang did in the third Taiwan strait crisis.

 

[xypher]

Another reason why I think that the US is not betting on war there is their behavior in Ukraine. If the US was assured of their military supremacy, they would directly intervene into the conflict especially after Russian military was weaker than what they thought. Let's face it, everyone understands that Putin would not use nukes unless Russian soil is directly threatened so purely defensive force deployment would have extremely low chances of nuclear escalation aside from words. The problem there is that if the US underperforms, its influence and prestige are going to take a massive hit.

Some policy makers in the Biden regime want to trigger a "Pearl Harbour" moment desperately to whip up anti-China hatred in the U.S. (yes, they don't think there is enough anti-China hatred now!) and to portray the U.S. as the "great savior" of the mankind against evil China.

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If Pelosi visits Taiwan without any incident, then one thing is certain: the Chinese government has been thoroughly infiltrated by U.S. spy ring.

"Pearl Harbor" moment would only be triggered if China directly attacked the US soil first, which is not going to happen. Shooting down Pelosi won't create such a moment nor would China attacking Taiwan.