Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[9dashline]

People who don't think China would do some military responses after putting out all that signalling and messaging are delusional.

At the very lowest/weakest we should see overflights of drones (possible manned planes) as well as missiles overflying Taiwan.

This is by the way, the minimum bar of what will happen.

The chances of the PLAAF trying to actually intercept Pelosi's plane and force her away/to not land isn't low either, with the possibility of ROC fighters being shot down being high along with US military planes if they dare enter within 12 km of Taiwan.

Another way to look at it, pretend instead of TW her plane was going to HK and China said no then once it approach 12 mile of Chinese coast China is within legal rights to shoot it down and this is recognized and acknowledged internationally..

Only difference is TW has operated as defacto independent for past 70 years even though its not recognized by UN as a country.

So by sending military planes and escorting its #3 leader into Tiawan provinence airspace America is knowingly, intentionally and willfully involving itself in China's unresolved civil war... even after repeated warnings to stay out and not to mention this is an unilateral repudiation of the Shanghai communique which served as the foundation for reapproachment and US benefitting from Chinese cheap labor and exploiting China for the last 40 or 50 years....

If an objective alien species was watching this from outer space there would be no doubt who is in the right or wrong here...

Ultimately what matters is power dynamics and hegemony, not laws, rights, etc because laws serve hegemony not the other way around.

So in this context its not useful to look at what is legal or right in predicting Chinese response or if Pelosi is getting shot down soon...

If I were Xi I wouldnt even bother with Pelosi and I would just go straight to armed reunification, and if she gets caught in the crosshairs then too bad so sad.... people who pull stunts should know the risks, she is insignificant in the grand scheme of things, this is all about US trying to split apart China in an ill gotten attempt to save its own collapsing hegemony

 

[henrik]

I don’t know why it is so hard to believe that PLAAF will attempt an intercept. They’ve done that with foreign planes, including fighter aircraft, numerous times in the East China Sea and SCS which recently culminated with the chaff incident. Why would Pelosi’s plane be any different?

They are going to intercept as usual.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

This is with their Magic AAM though, which are several decades past expiration. I expect the sidewinders and AIM-120 to be fully functional.

A parachute flare target is also much easier to shoot at than an actively resisting opponent that shoots back. Taiwanese pilots fly only 30 hours per year. In a real engagement it is expected they'll fare as well as Iraqis during Desert Storm.

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[siegecrossbow]

A parachute flare target is also much easier to shoot at than an actively resisting opponent that shoots back. Taiwanese pilots fly only 30 hours per year. In a real engagement it is expected they'll fare as well as Iraqis during Desert Storm.

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Doesn’t matter if your missile is expired. If the seeker doesn’t work, it won’t hit Jack.

 

[Suetham]

They've already made it official.

Did they make it official through an anonymous Taiwan government source from a Taipei state media?

If you have anything else, please share. This does not make Pelosi's visit an official procedure, the act of the visit itself does not make it an official visit.

No, this is an official visit whatever you like it or not.

No, it's not.

It still massively erodes Chinese sovereignty and national security by setting a precedent for other national leaders to make 'unofficial' trips to occupied Taiwan Province.

I don't have the slightest doubt about that. I fully understand the Chinese sentiment, but I reiterate what I stated earlier, this does not amount to an official US state visit to Taiwan.

If after all the hype and strong messages and live fire drills they allow the number 3 in the US to land on Chinese soil without their permission it would destroy Chinese prestige and strengthen Taiwan independence legitimacy. The domestic audience is already on fire, allowing her landing will be a match.

I agree.

 

[sunnymaxi]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554209524919197696

This guy is a China hawk and even he is saying wtf

 

[BoraTas]

In times of actual, proper crisis, I think it's more important than usual to take a step back and avoid emotional fulfillment and venting of frustration towards the crisis or the circumstances of it.
If there's any moment to seriously put up some effort and discipline into posting, I think this would be it.


I basically have three overriding observations, that are taken together:

- Neither side at present actually wants to go to war, and thus neither side will carry out actions involving the use of lethal force in anger in a manner that can easily lead to direct military action against the other. But a variety of options and actions short of that is technically on the table, with the variety being so large that I believe it isn't worth speculating over.

- Pelosi will very likely end up carrying out her trip to Taiwan, and it is wishful thinking to believe that China or the PLA have the physical ability to obstruct or prevent her plane from touching down on Taiwan as that would have to involve the use of lethal force, thus invalidating the previous above point.

- China's warnings and the PLA's warnings towards Pelosi's trip was never one that threatened the use of lethal military force (or the threat of war) in this instance, but rather that the trip would be further moving China and the US state of further irreversible tension and/or confrontation that could result in conflict between China and Taiwan (and by extension the US) in the future. In essence it is a further warning that this is getting closer and closer to the red line. But it is not a threat of war and lethal force, and the US knows this, and we should all know this too. Anyone trying to portray China's warnings as if they are "toothless," are either genuinely misinterpreting the intent of China's signaling -- or they are being deliberately malicious.



I do not think trying to speculate beyond that level of detail is worthwhile at this stage, and instead the responsibility is to sit back and watch.

This will be my last contribution to the thread until the entire ordeal is finished.

I agree with some of this.

- Shooting down Pelosi's plane would be unwise for China since it is a move with a very low reward/risk ratio. Outright invading Taiwan would be less risky and more in line with China's policies. I agree with this. Thus if Pelosi wants to land in Taiwan, she will.

- But I think it'd be wrong to conclude China won't use military force against Taiwan itself. China really raised stakes with consisted military signaling. We are also close to the elections. Considering how perfectionist high cadres of the CPC are, undermining China's credibility by not reacting after so many words would be very detrimental for Xi. The language used is very in line with the language used before Korea and Vietnam expeditions. The signaling is quite clear.

- The US has developed a policy of revising One China policy while pledging to comply with it. The same goes for Taiwan with the 1992 consensus too. We had a progressively advancing salami slicing for the last 6 years. The problem with this is One China policy is already a big compromise by China. China shouldn't and, I think, won't allow it to become an ever bigger compromise. China's policies envision severing of relations with countries that recognize Taiwan, and invasion of Taiwan in case Taiwan declares formal independence. In this perspective, it is logical for China to use limited force against Taiwan and partially sever its relations with the USA in response to this limited violation of One China.

- What force China can use against Taiwan? Actually, there are methods that would involve minimal to no deaths. Armed flyover, invasion of undefended Penghu and Kinmen islands (thus no deaths), blockade of Matsu (thus little to no deaths), declaration of a no-fly zone against ROCAF (few dozen deaths at most without further escalations) to harm the Taiwanese economy, etc... We saw Chinese state media talking about "getting full control of the straits" and "making further responses easier". These reactions would be quite consistent with these phrases. They are quite risky but so is not reacting to the erosion of the status quo.

- Having a crisis in the straits may be a good opportunity for China and China may have voluntarily triggered all of this with harsh rhetoric. This crisis is a good material to justify increased military spending to other Asian nations and the Chinese public.

 

[nixdorf]

That's not how the international bond market works. If you default on one, you default on the entire world. Bye bye to your economy, as the world's reserve currency, it hurts the US to default than it hurts China. It's also impossible to selectively default on any single country since most bonds are held by shell companies or shell entities.

That's not how the international bond market works. If you default on one, you default on the entire world. Bye bye to your economy, as the world's reserve currency, it hurts the US to default than it hurts China. It's also impossible to selectively default on any single country since most bonds are held by shell companies or shell entities.

The same thing that happened to Iran is happening to Russia and will happen to China.

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Iranian frozen assets in international accounts are calculated to be worth between $100 billion

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and $120 billion.... Since 1980, Iran has demanded that the US, European Union, and South Korea return all of the frozen assets to Iran, but their demands have largely been ignored.

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Some of the seized assets have been resold to third parties, while many have been given to families of victims of the regime.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

The U.S. Pentagon spokesperson, John Kirby just reiterated the long standing U.S. commitment that his country does not support Taiwanese Independence.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554166267527004160

 

[phrozenflame]

Hi all,

War is the extension of politics.

Some factors in to play:

Local US Politics:
- Democrats are in for a hammering they haven't recieved in a long time due to US being actually being in recession. Biden is the most unpopular leader with questionable mental health. His no. 2 is so bad that Biden could get more votes if he was in ICU. So democrats are desperate to change the messaging from inflation and recession.

Ukraine war happened too early, the fatigue has set in, it isn't even a top headline daily anymore. Russia didn't run out of missiles in march and widened up after making mistakes early on and are gradually progressing. The ruble and economy are stable and the sanctions are biting back.

The Pelosi drama is a win-win at first thought. If Pelosi lands etc without any serious consequence, Democrats can claim 'we showed em!'. Normally, this messaging would die down as well by November and won't help democrats.

If China responds in any an impactful manner, then that will be the steroid injection into 'ChInA bAd' narrative. This messaging will sustain at a higher pitch and will allow democrats some distraction from the local economic issues. If Pelosi is hit, then China is offering US a cassus belli whether you guys agree or not. Public in west would and would be happy to part with their tax money to hit back at China. This is playing straight into their hands.

USA wins in both scenarios unless China can humiliate USA without hitting.

Furthermore, long term US policy is obviously to keep goading China into making mistakes and generate more bad PR so they can convince more of their allies to decouple faster.

Chinese Politics:
Now CCP has decided for whatever reason that this is the hill they will fight on. I feel they could've decided they'd fight on another hill, but it is what it is. Seeing the local social media trends, the public is laser focused and hyped. The legitimacy of CCP is at stake. The expectations have been set high and if they are not delivered it will certainly hurt CCP's image and US will walk away with an easy win.

Things such as:
- Live excercises,
- More rhetoric of this and that,
Etc will not satisfy the public.

The public expects something meaningful and consequential.

At the same time, I don't think CCP are dumb enough to start a direct war with US and allies. US is baiting them, and hoping to further galvanize their allies.

CCPs ideal response should be squarely on (1) Taiwan directly, and (2) indirectly, make the conflict with China unpopular amongst US masses. US lost Vietnam and Afghanistan not because they couldn't pound the local militias indefinitely, but because public had enough of it and it became a political liability. Hitting Pelosi will make a war against China more popular in west, hence it's counter-productive.

So with all of the above, what are the options on esscalatory ladder:l and it doesn't have to be instant, but multiple over multiple schedules.

1. China can take over some of the Islands. Warn that any economic sanctions from West, especially Europe will mean that they will retaliate by assisting Russia in fighting Ukraine. Ukraine is a proxy for west, where they hope to cut down Putin without sacrificing any of their own, an ideal scenario they hope to support indefinately. This suddenly becomes very expensive if China backs Russia, then Ukraine is a no win scenario for the West unless they wish to start a nuclear war with Russia. So, counter-baited. Also allows China go test their equipment in real world scenario. China can claim if West interferes in its internal matters, it will interfere in European matters.

There will be economic costs for all sides, but frankly, West is already through trade war and other restrictions, attempting that, but trying to minimize their blowback. This will neuter that strategy.

Taiwan would need to be made example of to deter local lapdogs like India and Japan not be a punching bag.

2. Announce ambiguous no fly zone over Taiwan, Taiwan and allies would need to escort every civilian aircraft, China can pick and choose, creating alot of cost with nothing on it. They can again warn any sanctions will result in Ukraine scenario mentioned above. It's a trump card.

3. Rare earth metals, start charging 50% Pelosi tax for x number of months, you know it's not permanent and not super escalatory, it hits US consumers, creates inflation without much impact. US is already busy trying to find alternate supply chains so milk this cow now.

4. Other factors that create inflationary impacts indirectly. Perhaps port closures due to military excercises. Global supply chains are expensive and fucked as they are, this creates more drama and makes things difficult.

5. Other indirect factors: oil etc, they can push Iran to go nuclear and bait a strike if things don't remain neutral on that front. Iran is willing to bat for Russia right now, they'll be delighted with China on their side.

6. Immediately start moving their reserves out of jurisdictions that can be locked / stolen like Russians and Iranians faced. This is key, if China isn't doing this already after Russia, now is the time.

7. Lots of private Chinese citizen investments sitting in west that can be stolen, start making a plan to get rid of those.

8. Seriously consider Rapid build up and preparation under pretext of Pelosi provocation for unification within days/weeks before US and allies can mobilize and [ eventually go for it.]( I will explain why time isn't necessarily on Chinese side)

The solution is to counter bait and make life miserable for the political elite. Knee jerk reactions like sHoOT dOwN pEloSi are childish and short sighted and wet dream come true for US.

Is time in China's side? Yes and no.

US has waken up, they're expediting 6th gen fighters, focusing on key technologies to stay ahead (recent example of Semiconductor subsidies) abd trying to limit China in areas it has edge in like cutting down Huawei, arguably which would have been no. 1 mobile manufacturer today but now is out of the picture due to 5g and other restrictions. No Chinese corporation will be allowed to become global leaders in critical industries and they will be hit hard under pretext of 'national security'.

They are also rallying allies, AUKUS is one example, there is talk of Economic NATO etc. They are going to do what every power would do in this scenario. China is not going to be against US alone in 10-20 years, theyd be up against a more armed up Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia. (Not sure about India since they're so incompetent), but all of that Economic might will be much bigger than China even if China surpasses US one on one.

So I think the time window for reunification is earlier rather than later.