escobar
Brigadier
So every Time some dude visit TW, you detonate a Nuke ? Let this stupid move to putin
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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the best PLA could do right now is to saturate Taiwan with missiles and bombings, hoping to use terror to bomb the greens into submission. Any attempts to conduct amphibious operations are too risky due to presence of adversaries' sub. That would be hundreds and thousands of PLA infantry and armors wasted without even given a chance to fight.
If Xi really had issues his government would probably not issue that many public strong warnings, just stay relatively silent instead of dragging the dispute into the public. Like how Pompeo's attempted visit was relatively quickly squashed with high level military threats.
Those warnings could only really mean 2 things. Either military operation, which could scale from least escalatory (recapture of one of or all, Kinmen, Lianjiang and Penghu) to most escalatory (full on assault on ROC and arrest of Pelosi and her team), or the Xi government just hammed it up to get public approval for military spending.
After Russia's risky move, both Poland and Germany announced they would build Europe's strongest army, Germany devoted 100 billion extra spending for 2022. Likewise, after this risky move from America, China could easily justify making public their intention to build the strongest military in the Pacific Ocean, and put 500 billion extra spending to strengthen its numbers. Chinese people's attitude towards the anglos is quite similar to Polish attitude towards the Russians. They remember the historical pain suffered while occupied by them, and the PLA will not want for either donations nor recruits.
China has some of the most advanced military tech in the world, but the numbers are lacking due to lack of funding. A 1 time increase of 500 billion, permanent commitment to 2% spending, will allow, among many other things, China to fast track its 6th gen program and build many more factories for stealth fighters, allowing the Air Force to enjoy numerical advantage in J-20s vs F-35s.
I will put a little of my thought on this "Pelosi-should-be-allowed-to-land-or-not" debacle.
Here are two possible scenarios:
1. If the Chinese government does not intend on stopping Pelosi's plane from landing in Taipei, then things would be much simpler and less risky. Just refer to others who have talked about this in the previous posts in this thread.
In fact, if China wants to launch her reunification war on Taiwan in response to Pelosi's visit, by waiting until Pelosi's plane has left Taiwan, and that the US Navy's CSG and ESGs have lowered their war readiness somewhat would be more beneficial for China's cause. By then, the PLA would already have sufficient time to mobilize enough personnel and equipment.
Furthermore, the Pacific Typhoon Season is currently in full swing and will continue until late-October. Landing and combat operations cross-strait and around the island itself would be significantly affected in case any typhoon is heading towards Taiwan when the war is still in progress.
2. If the Chinese government really intend on stopping Pelosi's plane from landing in Taipei, I believe that the PLA should make sure that Pelosi's plane can leave the Taiwan area and not come back - and NOT shooting the her plane down.
Personally, I don't see how the pilots tasked with flying Pelosi's plane would dare to continue the flight to Taipei when fighters from the PLAAF and USAF + ROCAF are dueling at each other just around them. Remember what @Patchwork_Chimera said - Pelosi's plane would high-tail out of the region in case any shooting starts.
Even if Pelosi is a daredevil, somehow (which she isn't - she has never been in the military in her entire life), the White House and especially the Pentagon would intervene on her behalf. Why? At least we have someone like General Milley who is clear-headed enough than many of those hawkish politicians in DC. That's also why the Pentagon said that Pelosi's visit is not a good idea in the first place.
As long as the PLA can cause some chaos around Taiwan when Pelosi is about to visit (such as engaging USAF and/or ROCAF fighter planes, conducting extra large scale military exercises right in the expected flight paths of her plane, firing Dong Feng missiles into waters near Taiwan, etc), then I believe the most striaghtforward protocol for the pilots onboard would be to fly Pelosi's plane towards Okinawa, Yokota or even Guam immediately. Remember that it is the responsibility and priority of the US military to make sure that Pelosi is safe and sound. Whether or not she can land in Taipei and meet English Vegetable is a different matter entirely.
Besides, I think that even if fighter planes from either or both sides got damaged and/or shot down, it would not lead to immediate escalation into a full-scale war, unless either side does the escalation first. If my intuition is correct based on the responses from the White House up till now, neither Beijing nor Washington DC wants to escalate this into a full-scale war. Phones in the Pentagon and/or the August 1st Building would ring like no tomorrow as soon as the confrontation begins, or in case the first shootings were reported.
Here are two possible scenarios:
1. If the Chinese government does not intend on stopping Pelosi's plane from landing in Taipei, then things would be much simpler and less risky. Just refer to others who have talked about this in the previous posts in this thread.
In fact, if China wants to launch her reunification war on Taiwan in response to Pelosi's visit, by waiting until Pelosi's plane has left Taiwan, and that the US Navy's CSG and ESGs have lowered their war readiness somewhat would be more beneficial for China's cause. By then, the PLA would already have sufficient time to mobilize enough personnel and equipment.
Furthermore, the Pacific Typhoon Season is currently in full swing and will continue until late-October. Landing and combat operations cross-strait and around the island itself would be significantly affected in case any typhoon is heading towards Taiwan when the war is still in progress.
2. If the Chinese government really intend on stopping Pelosi's plane from landing in Taipei, I believe that the PLA should make sure that Pelosi's plane can leave the Taiwan area and not come back - and NOT shooting the her plane down.
Personally, I don't see how the pilots tasked with flying Pelosi's plane would dare to continue the flight to Taipei when fighters from the PLAAF and USAF + ROCAF are dueling at each other just around them. Remember what @Patchwork_Chimera said - Pelosi's plane would high-tail out of the region in case any shooting starts.
Even if Pelosi is a daredevil, somehow (which she isn't - she has never been in the military in her entire life), the White House and especially the Pentagon would intervene on her behalf. Why? At least we have someone like General Milley who is clear-headed enough than many of those hawkish politicians in DC. That's also why the Pentagon said that Pelosi's visit is not a good idea in the first place.
As long as the PLA can cause some chaos around Taiwan when Pelosi is about to visit (such as engaging USAF and/or ROCAF fighter planes, conducting extra large scale military exercises right in the expected flight paths of her plane, firing Dong Feng missiles into waters near Taiwan, etc), then I believe the most striaghtforward protocol for the pilots onboard would be to fly Pelosi's plane towards Okinawa, Yokota or even Guam immediately. Remember that it is the responsibility and priority of the US military to make sure that Pelosi is safe and sound. Whether or not she can land in Taipei and meet English Vegetable is a different matter entirely.
Besides, I think that even if fighter planes from either or both sides got damaged and/or shot down, it would not lead to immediate escalation into a full-scale war, unless either side does the escalation first. If my intuition is correct based on the responses from the White House up till now, neither Beijing nor Washington DC wants to escalate this into a full-scale war. Phones in the Pentagon and/or the August 1st Building would ring like no tomorrow as soon as the confrontation begins, or in case the first shootings were reported.
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I don't think US will involve the war directly. The loss of the US will be uncontrollable if involved in the war.
This is just a hillarious speculation on my part: What if she's been diagnosed with a terminal disease anyway or her husband maybe about to be implicated for his financial dealings (stocks and all the potential charges and jail time would see her husband to pretty spend the rest of days in jail) or both that her going down in literal flames is her way to go out in the blaze of glory in the service of her God (she's Catholic) and country.
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Stop this coping. Pelosi is doing this because she knows China won't do anything because they've issued a billion threats before this and has not followed through on those threats. This time won't be different. She will be the first speaker to visit Taiwan in 25 years and it looks good for her legacy. Poking China in the eye is really fun for American elites, too.
Damn.
So if a dog bites you what would you do? Cower in fear and try to appease him and reach a compromise with the dog? No of course not, you have to stand your ground and make the dog your b**** (at least in your own territory) and make him understand you are the boss here or else the dog will make you his b**** inside your own territory.
You are using capability as an excuse to why China should just turn the other cheek to the US. when even a far much smaller country (Russia) invaded Ukraine (an actual country, not a province) yet the US still didn't dare to send it's military directly against Russia and instead decided to make do with weapons shipments and sanctions. And those sanctions are devastating western economies, if they repeat those sanctions against China then that would be the end of western economies.
The US didn't corner any one but itself, the US is at it's weakest point since more than a decade now, due to faulty covid policy plus the Russia sanctions, their actions are out of a position of weakness not that of strength.
If you bow to this kind of a person:
Let's hope the leadership in Beijing doesn't share your opinion.
Technically China didn't bow in the trade war so there is a good chance they won't bow now.
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