The War in the Ukraine

[2handedswordsman]

It's not practical to build a concrete box... by what measure? Skilled labor or expense? It seems far more costly to me to lose your nuclear triad than to build concrete shelters.

A strategic bomber is equal or bigger than a common airliner like 737 per se

 

[Kich]

If anything this attack has demonstrated the need for anti-drone tech. 3 years into this war and no one has developed an effective hard-kill anti drone system.

I've seen the APS system China tested with the Type 99. That system is geared towards RPG so I doubt it will work against FPV.
The HQ-17AE SAM system is the only dedicated system I've seen that might work against fpv drones.

Anyone can suffer from such attack. Imagine Taiwanese spies during a war, park trucks full of drones outside of major bases.

This can happen to anyone and yet it seems no one is working on a hard-kill system against them. Only EW which are not fully effective and are useless against fiber-linked drones.

 

[gelgoog]

Would this attack meaningfully degrade Russia's ability to launch large cruise missile salvos or force them to decrease e.g. salvo size? Or do they have plenty of spare capacity?

The numbers of air launched cruise missiles used in strikes was already decreasing as Geran production keeps increasing. The Geran is way more cost effective.

There are also other launch platforms for cruise missiles other than aviation. You have Iskander-K and Kalibr.

Some people are also making a big fuss about bomber losses being irreplaceable as the Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 are not in production. But the Tu-160 is in production and can also launch the Kh-101.

Is this attack another one that looks good on optics but has no large impact regarding the current war right now?

Basically.

 

[Stealthflanker]

I wonder how many bombers were destroyed during the Ukrainian attack?

The Toll so far were 4x Tu-95 and some 3x Tu-22M3. At least from the video provided.

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

If anything this attack has demonstrated the need for anti-drone tech. 3 years into this war and no one has developed an effective hard-kill anti drone system.

I've seen the APS system China tested with the Type 99. That system is geared towards RPG so I doubt it will work against FPV.
The HQ-17AE SAM system is the only dedicated system I've seen that might work against fpv drones.

Anyone can suffer from such attack. Imagine Taiwanese spies during a war, park trucks full of drones outside of major bases.

This can happen to anyone and yet it seems no one is working on a hard-kill system against them. Only EW which are not fully effective and are useless against fiber-linked drones.

It exists, and as drones shows the laser development is also fast and I guess current lasers will be replaced in nearby future with a new generation

【【察话会Au】250527 猛士防空“新三件套”是一种妥协的艺术-哔哩哔哩】

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Latest ShiLao talkshow where he and Otter talked about Mengshi based laser defense systems. Key takeaways—

1) they are the domestic use variant of OW5-A10, which implies a maximum output of 10KW.
2) They are dedicated to point defense against FPV drones. During internal assessment they are found to be superior in the role to air defense guns.
3) They are dirt cheap, costing less than other Mengshi based assets like 625 air defense gun and FB-10 SAMs. Even if enemy weapons score a lucky hit it is not too big of a deal since it is so cheap.
4) It’s so cheap that even notorious misers like PLAGF have rolled them out in massive numbers.
5) There is a variant mounted on unmanned vehicle in operation in the ETC. Otter has a photo of it but won’t share with anyone outside of his circle. It is even more disposable than the manned variant for obvious reasons. Funniest thing about it is that it has a cope cage.
6) Otter confirmed that next gen PLAN destroyer will have a very high powered laser point defense capable of intercepting cruise missiles (I guess at least subsonic ones) and gloated about Helios underperforming, which alleviates pressure for Chinese engineers.
7) Ultimately the Mengshi based air defense platforms are a stopgap measure after witnessing the damage loitering munitions/FPV/bomb dropping drones could do during Russo-Ukrainian War.

 

[siegecrossbow]

It exists, and as drones shows the laser development is also fast and I guess current lasers will be replaced fast with new generation

FPV drones are even more susceptible to laser damage than regular quadcopters because they strip off a lot of external components to save weight for boosting speed/increasing range.

 

[Kich]

I would like to add that Russia's weakness invited these attacks. They've dragged their feet so long in this war and are also just simply to weak to do anything against all the red-lines broken.

They are weak. And I'm tired of even trying to explain about it.

This is not how you prosecute a war. US and the West have shown the world multiple times on how to effective wage one.

They should have done everything to destroy Ukraine's means of waging a war from day 1 but instead:

• They've allowed Ukraine to maintain power and electricity.
• They even allow Ukraine to continue to have a functioning Air Force and bases.
• They haven't destroyed and conventionally destroyed Ukraine Western city hub of arms transfer--Lviv

Russia's slow methodical way of waging this war is actually evil because it is prolonging this war leading to more unnecessary suffering and death. Ridiculous. I've been complain about them for so long that I partially tuned out this war.

Their military is so functionally corrupt that it's criminal. They fucking never learn from anything. Just months ago they were using 4th gen fighters, flankers, on a gun strafing runs against sea drones after 2 years into this war. How was that even allowed when they had Orion UAV drones capable of hunting those sea drones? It's why they lost one flanker to a sea drone.

They are so ridiculous that I promise you they will never learn anything from this.

Any one of us here would do a marvelous job in running the Russian MOD than those fools Putin has serving under him. Corruption kills.

 

[plawolf]

I don't know why people think nuclear response is likely. Nukes haven't been used for 80 years and it's for good reason. Once the genie is out of the bottle it cannot be put back in.

Using a nuke now means any escalation with the west from here forward would invite a nuclear response from the west. You can no longer climb down once you go up the nuclear escalation ladder. China would be incredibly incensed by a nuclear strike also as it will also invite a nuclear response to Taiwan, given that a green flag has been given to make a non-nuclear conflict nuclear.

Nukes have not been used all these decades not because of some gentlemanly agreement, instead because of nuclear proliferation and mutual deterrence through the threat of nuclear mutual annihilation. That was crystallised and formalised by treaties and mutual respect and restraint in SOP.

The problem is that the current crop of leaders in NATO are all spoilt rich brats who have been systematically shielded from all form of personal responsibility and accountability for their actions since birth by the wealth and power of their families to the point that they simply cannot conceive of the notion of having to suffer consequences for their choices and actions now that they are in positions of power and influence.

So they only think about how they can hurt the Russians with reckless disregard for what the Russians might be able to do to hurt them right back, to the point where not only did they play salami slicing game against Russia’s nuclear deterrence, but now daring to do an alpha strike on their air based leg of the nuclear triad.

Russia can use nukes in Ukraine and get away with it because Ukraine doesn’t have any nukes to nuke them back with. If anyone else was moronic enough to use nukes against Russia, the Russians have the nukes to nuke them right back. Which is why they don’t fear anyone else threatening them with nukes. Unless you go after Russia’s nuclear retaliation capabilities like Ukraine just did in a massive way that actually materially compromises Russian nuclear deterrence. That’s the red line that no nuclear power can afford to allow crossed without answer. And the answer needs to be suitable disproportional to discourage further such attempts to undermine Russian nuclear deterrence.

 

[Overbom]

Nukes have not been used all these decades not because of some gentlemanly agreement, instead because of nuclear proliferation and mutual deterrence through the threat of nuclear mutual annihilation. That was crystallised and formalised by treaties and mutual respect and restraint in SOP.

The problem is that the current crop of leaders in NATO are all spoilt rich brats who have been systematically shielded from all form of personal responsibility and accountability for their actions since birth by the wealth and power of their families to the point that they simply cannot conceive of the notion of having to suffer consequences for their choices and actions now that they are in positions of power and influence.

So they only think about how they can hurt the Russians with reckless disregard for what the Russians might be able to do to hurt them right back, to the point where not only did they play salami slicing game against Russia’s nuclear deterrence, but now daring to do an alpha strike on their air based leg of the nuclear triad.

Russia can use nukes in Ukraine and get away with it because Ukraine doesn’t have any nukes to nuke them back with. If anyone else was moronic enough to use nukes against Russia, the Russians have the nukes to nuke them right back. Which is why they don’t fear anyone else threatening them with nukes. Unless you go after Russia’s nuclear retaliation capabilities like Ukraine just did in a massive way that actually materially compromises Russian nuclear deterrence. That’s the red line that no nuclear power can afford to allow crossed without answer. And the answer needs to be suitable disproportional to discourage further such attempts to undermine Russian nuclear deterrence.

Bet you 5 bucks that Russia won't nuke Ukraine.

Another 5 bucks that Russia won't nuke NATO (spoilt rich brats seems to have calculated that Putin will chicken out, something called PACO)

Another 5 bucks that Russia will talk big game, do a "massive retaliatory missile attack", sink a few ships, hit an Ukrainian air base etc thats it. Beyond that, won't do anything

 

[2handedswordsman]

I would like to add that Russia's weakness invited these attacks. They've dragged their feet so long in this war and are also just simply to weak to do anything against all the red-lines broken.

They are weak. And I'm tired of even trying to explain about it.

This is not how you prosecute a war. US and the West have shown the world multiple times on how to effective wage one.

They should have done everything to destroy Ukraine's means of waging a war from day 1 but instead:

• They've allowed Ukraine to maintain power and electricity.
• They even allow Ukraine to continue to have a functioning Air Force and bases.
• They haven't destroyed and conventionally destroyed Ukraine Western city hub of arms transfer--Lviv

Russia's slow methodical way of waging this war is actually evil because it is prolonging this war leading to more unnecessary suffering and death. Ridiculous. I've been complain about them for so long that I partially tuned out this war.

Their military is so functionally corrupt that it's criminal. They fucking never learn from anything. Just months ago they were using 4th gen fighters, flankers, on a gun strafing runs against sea drones after 2 years into this war. How was that even allowed when they had Orion UAV drones capable of hunting those sea drones? It's why they lost one flanker to a sea drone.

They are so ridiculous that I promise you they will never learn anything from this.

Any one of us here would do a marvelous job in running the Russian MOD than those fools Putin has serving under him. Corruption kills.

Man this war is between former brotherly countries. It's more like a civil war than an "effective war" of sending everything against people with flip flops. That's why it is an SMO. With it's pros and cons. Tip to armed chair generals. Yes it's perfectly plausible to be caught offguard even at war if you are thousands km from the battlefield. Guarding is the most boring but dangerous thing invented by mankind. It can vary from deadly boring to deadly active