The War in the Ukraine

muddie

Junior Member
From a strategic prospective, how come Russia has not gone after Ukraine senior leadership similar to Israel?

The AFU is clearly shifting to more grey-zone or "terrorist" style operations as they are losing the initiative on the conventional side in frontlines. Drone attacks and assassinations of Russian military personal inside Russia are becoming more common. They have also made numerous threats against Putin and other senior Russian politicians.

Seems like the logical move for Russia is to remove Ukraine/AFU leadership, because it's clear the will to fight is still strong for Ukrainians and while events like these do not actually change frontlines, it provides a morale boost and boldens further attacks.
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
It affects the capabilities of the Russian nuclear triad.

This is taken from TMB 2024:
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If Ukraine disabled dozens of bombers as has been alleged, then the nuclear response capability has been compromised.

The most likely scenario I have seen so far is 9 bombers destroyed.
Nuclear triad is a buzzword. What is the actual practical effectiveness for a Nuke Bomber? You get closer to enemy and then lob a Nuclear cruise Missile?

Why not make the cruise missile bigger and longer ranged and launch it from land?

Why not launch a ground based ICBM or Sub based ICBM instead?

Nuke bombers are completely unneccesary in modern warfare
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
You cannot damage one that already in Patrol tho. Those will be below the arctic circle or anywhere where their patrol is taken. There will always be SSBN on patrol.

FPV drones isn't going to scratch a submarine, which is built around a cylinder of high strength steel intended to survive immense pressures, on top of a secondary outer pressure hull of steel which is going to act better than spaced armor. Remember that Black Sea Fleet Kilo that was hit by a cruise missile? Rostov un Don was the name I think. That submarine is being repaired.


Nuclear triad is a buzzword. What is the actual practical effectiveness for a Nuke Bomber? You get closer to enemy and then lob a Nuclear cruise Missile?

Why not make the cruise missile bigger and longer ranged and launch it from land?

Why not launch a ground based ICBM or Sub based ICBM instead?

Nuke bombers are completely unneccesary in modern warfare


These old bombers are easy meat to a stealth fighter that managed to penetrate air defenses. The maintenance for something old must be incredible.

This brilliant tactical exercise and I emphasize brilliant would make a good ton of PR, but unfortunately you shot the wad and wasted a lifetime opportunity when you could have struck Russia's drone factories like the ones making Gerans and Lancets. Or the ones making electronics and optics. Or fiberoptics. I also don't see a single Su-34 or Iskander launcher attacked, or why they didn't attack the depot for Iskander missiles? Sometime ago, they did struck a GRAU warehouse but it appears what was destroyed was some old Grad MLRS rockets. Still considering what a pain Grads are still in the battlefield, that's a good victory.
 

phrozenflame

Junior Member
Registered Member
If Russia can control all of Ukraine which is a huge country full of very fertile land and also a 40 million+ Russian speaking population which can be easily integrated to Russia proper with much easier effort then these costs are nothing.

Lets face it, Strategic Bombers are completely useless in a true peer war for anything other than conventional lobbing standoff missiles. And you can fire those missiles from the ground as well. No one will use Bombers to fire Nukes these days, ICBMs are simply much much better. So, losing even all of the Bombers is not a big deal for Russia.

Losing all old Soviet era tanks and Artillery? If they are not used now, they will likely never be used. They are getting too old anyway, Russia putting them to good use to get huge landmass and huge population is a big bonus.

Black Sea fleet was likely the weakest fleets that Russia has. Russia can dominate the black sea with ground based Air power alone if they need to. So, again, temporary set backs.

Getting Ukraine is the big prize. Now the question is, If Russia can pull it off.
That boat sailed long ago. Russia is finding it difficult to fully capture even the territories it has claimed in Ukraine.
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
That boat sailed long ago. Russia is finding it difficult to fully capture even the territories it has claimed in Ukraine.
I expect the war in Ukraine to unfold like WW1 western front where millions died to capture few Km of land until one side (Germay) was so depleted that they had a revolution at home and the new govt negotiated a surrender. Germany lost huge land after that war.

I also expect there will be some kind of revolution that will end this war. Either Revolution in Ukraine or in Russia. There will be a change in government and that new government will surrender.
 

Nautilus

New Member
Registered Member
What great news. I've seen a lot of talk about compromising Russia's nuclear deterrence, but what about its conventional long-range land-attack capabilities? Would this attack meaningfully degrade Russia's ability to launch large cruise missile salvos or force them to decrease e.g. salvo size? Or do they have plenty of spare capacity?
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
If Russia can control all of Ukraine which is a huge country full of very fertile land and also a 40 million+ Russian speaking population which can be easily integrated to Russia proper with much easier effort then these costs are nothing.

Already a good chunk of the Ukrainian population is with the Russians are fighting the rest of Ukraine. That's the DPR and the LPR. People often forget this but it is partially a civil war.

Losing all old Soviet era tanks and Artillery? If they are not used now, they will likely never be used. They are getting too old anyway, Russia putting them to good use to get huge landmass and huge population is a big bonus.

I don't think the numbers of Soviet weaponry are being depleted fast enough before all of Ukraine's military age male population runs out. There's signs of that happening for a while. The average rate of capture is now up to 20 square kilometer a day from 10km in 2024.


Assuming artillery and tanks are running out, which they're not, there's always the drones, which are continuously improving. Some of the footage from the Russian side are showing non interrupted assaults, which means no drones, no shelling, no opposition. Days and days go by and the Ukrainians do not capture a single square kilometer of territory that can be objectively verified. This is unlike 2023 or even 2024.

The Russians and to quite a degree the Ukrainians too, have a persistent habit of taking destroyed stuff, fixing and repairing it, and off back to the battlefield. That's why I don't take kill claims seriously because to a good degree, the stuff is recovered and fixed. This is especially with the Soviet stuff where they are made in such a way an idiot can repair it. These things also have tons of parts available and what's missing can be solved by a 3D printer. That's why in reality, to make sure stuff doesn't get repaired and returned to the battlefield, it will be repeatedly by struck by drones and artillery. There's also the emphasis in striking down recovery vehicles.

Tanks, and especially turtle tanks or Tsar Mangals, are the worst damage sponges. One Turtle tank took as many as 30+ FPV drones, and the Russians recovered it after a week of being abandoned. There were still FPV drones tangled up in it's steel chains. This is why tanks are not really running out.

What's more in danger of running out are the APCs and IFVs. They are much more fragile. But you still need them. Drones cannot assault and take territory. An armored column can. Much of the stuff being used here are now new production, used along with restored old ones. The Ukrainians have a much more severe APC and IFV problem than the Russians, as they are often using pickups and automobiles now, even fitting them with drone cages and EW modules.
 
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