The War in the Ukraine

Some unrelated notes.

Some more information coming out from the Antonov plant strikes in Kiev where the AFU has been manufacturing drones. On May 24, it was struck by a series of Geran drones. These drone appear to be the new version with the 90kg warhead and the footage shows how impactful they are.


Heavy fires reported.


NASA FIRMS landscape satellite indicating the damage, almost wiping out the plant. There might be missiles that might have been used but there's no footage of one. This can be the work of entirely with Gerans.


Geran strike on an AFU vehicular hanger near the front, another case of the increasing tactical level use of the drone. This also shows it's improved destructive power


Russian strike strategies are now moving to just between Gerans and Iskanders, with decoys like Gerberas. Cruise missiles seems less and less part of the equation,

FriedButter said:

The main core problem is Putin stubbornness on being a dove moderate. Reality is what the military can do in Ukraine is greatly limited by Putin insistences on continuing the conflict by tying the military hands behind their back. Compounded by the insistences with offering pointless olive branches to the West 24/7 for years. Exactly the same problems back in Appello Syria when Putin declared an ceasefire and pissed off the military.

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Militarily, what can Russia do against Ukraine right now to change the course of the war? At the beginning is where Russia made the major mistakes of half assing it, by deploying bare minimum number of forces in a tri vector attack and not achieving air superiority. At this point there is nothing they can do to change much in the ground

Incredible oversight in Russian intelligence, it is the worst attack on Russian territory in decades..

It is clear to me that the success that the KGB had is due to Ukrainian strategies, the Muscovotad seem to be very careless and inefficient....

Days earlier, the SBU had already assassinated a bombing commander on Russian territory.

i'm finding it increasingly difficult to deny the schizoid mutterings that russia is controlled opposition.

Kich said:

I would like to add that Russia's weakness invited these attacks. They've dragged their feet so long in this war and are also just simply to weak to do anything against all the red-lines broken.

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A lot of people also thought the Russians wouldn't invade Ukraine and yet they did.

Kich said:

This is not how you prosecute a war. US and the West have shown the world multiple times on how to effective wage one.

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Like the US leaving with its tail behind its legs in Afghanistan?

Kich said:

They've allowed Ukraine to maintain power and electricity.

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The power they have is from their remaining nuclear power plants or imported from Europe.
Way less than what they need.
Thus far Russia has avoided strikes on nuclear power plants.

Kich said:

They even allow Ukraine to continue to have a functioning Air Force and bases.

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You eat too much propaganda. Their airforce is tiny and most of the time is hidden inside buildings.

Kich said:

Russia's slow methodical way of waging this war is actually evil because it is prolonging this war leading to more unnecessary suffering and death. Ridiculous. I've been complain about them for so long that I partially tuned out this war.

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Russia is destroying Ukraine's military potential for good. Instead of making a lightning strike, pseudo victory, and then losing against an insurgency like the US did in Afghanistan and Iraq. You could call it evil, yes. But this is the nature of war.

Kich said:

Their military is so functionally corrupt that it's criminal. They fucking never learn from anything. Just months ago they were using 4th gen fighters, flankers, on a gun strafing runs against sea drones after 2 years into this war. How was that even allowed when they had Orion UAV drones capable of hunting those sea drones? It's why they lost one flanker to a sea drone.

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Typical problem in large organizations. Those were Russian Naval aviation fighters, and the Russian Navy does not operate the Orion.

Overbom said:

Bet you 5 bucks that Russia won't nuke Ukraine.

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I wouldn't discount them nuking a bridge or dam over the Dnieper for example. They could also nuke the train tunnels connecting Ukraine into Europe.

Kich said:

But at the same time, US is once again showing the world how to defend against drone swarms in the Red Sea against Yemen and in defense of Israel.

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Lol. The US lost three fighter aircraft to an opponent without an air force. The US then left Yemen claiming victory. And you are gullible enough to believe them.

SolarWarden said:

Dude just stop already. You sound like the guy inside a burning building and saying everything is fine when it is not. If true and 40 bombers of all kind were taken out, hell lets say 10 strategic bombers were taken out, this is a huge deal for VKS and to downplay it as a no big deal is major coping.

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We have no evidence the Russians lost that many aircraft. And I never said this wasn't a significant loss. Just that it won't affect the course of the war.
These bombers were meant to be replaced over the next decade with PAK DA anyway.

crazyinsane105 said:

Nukes are overrated. Especially in a conflict which is taking place over several hundred miles in terms of the front line and significant territory captured is in the hundreds of meters per day. Unless Russia plans on annihilating every major population center in Ukraine and hoping NATO doesn’t respond (which they most likely will at that point), nukes won’t do anything positive for Russia.

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Russians are capturing territory now at the average rate of 20 square kilometers a day. This surge began after March 2025 when Russians recovered the Kursk region. That's up from 10 square kilometers a day in 2024. Now the Russians are a net positive of over 300 square kilometers in the Sumy region. Russian forces in Southern Donetsk are close two or three kilometers from the border of Dnipetrovosk.

crazyinsane105 said:

Militarily, what can Russia do against Ukraine right now to change the course of the war? At the beginning is where Russia made the major mistakes of half assing it, by deploying bare minimum number of forces in a tri vector attack and not achieving air superiority. At this point there is nothing they can do to change much in the ground

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The course of the war has already changed decisively since the fall of Bakhmut, the blunting of the Ukrainian Summer Counteroffensive in 2023 and the fall of Avdiivka. It's the Ukrainians that need to change the course which is looking to grind down what remains of the adult male population, now namely down to 18 to 24 year olds, if this doesn't stop. As a nation, in demographic terms, Ukraine is finished as self sufficient society as you no longer have a sustainable workforce to operate the economy.

FriedButter said:

The main core problem is Putin stubbornness on being a dove moderate. Reality is what the military can do in Ukraine is greatly limited by Putin insistences on continuing the conflict by tying the military hands behind their back. Compounded by the insistences with offering pointless olive branches to the West 24/7 for years. Exactly the same problems back in Appello Syria when Putin declared an ceasefire and pissed off the military.

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Exactly!!!!

If Putin does not order a truly powerful strike, the hardline Russian political leadership in Moscow may pressure him to hand over control of this operation to the military.

siegecrossbow said:

FPV drones are even more susceptible to laser damage than regular quadcopters because they strip off a lot of external components to save weight for boosting speed/increasing range.

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My friends, the defense against this type of attack is very simple:

Sinnavuuty said:

My friends, the defense against this type of attack is very simple:
View attachment 153317

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Just to be safe they also need a layer of ERA.