The War in the Ukraine

Kich · Sunday at 1:22 PM

plawolf said:
Nukes have not been used all these decades not because of some gentlemanly agreement, instead because of nuclear proliferation and mutual deterrence through the threat of nuclear mutual annihilation. That was crystallised and formalised by treaties and mutual respect and restraint in SOP.

The problem is that the current crop of leaders in NATO are all spoilt rich brats who have been systematically shielded from all form of personal responsibility and accountability for their actions since birth by the wealth and power of their families to the point that they simply cannot conceive of the notion of having to suffer consequences for their choices and actions now that they are in positions of power and influence.

So they only think about how they can hurt the Russians with reckless disregard for what the Russians might be able to do to hurt them right back, to the point where not only did they play salami slicing game against Russia’s nuclear deterrence, but now daring to do an alpha strike on their air based leg of the nuclear triad.

Russia can use nukes in Ukraine and get away with it because Ukraine doesn’t have any nukes to nuke them back with. If anyone else was moronic enough to use nukes against Russia, the Russians have the nukes to nuke them right back. Which is why they don’t fear anyone else threatening them with nukes. Unless you go after Russia’s nuclear retaliation capabilities like Ukraine just did in a massive way that actually materially compromises Russian nuclear deterrence. That’s the red line that no nuclear power can afford to allow crossed without answer. And the answer needs to be suitable disproportional to discourage further such attempts to undermine Russian nuclear deterrence.

You should move away from this nuke discussion. You are wasting your time. Putin would never resort to nukes. Many red-lines have been crossed and his bluffs have been called and they've never used nukes.

From the US explicitly providing targeting data on Russian soil to Ukraine long range targets to even just recently an attempt on Putin's life while he was flying to Kursk.

[If anything Putin could have nuked Ukraine forces inside Kursk during their invasion. 10K UA forces were in that bulge at the height of it. That could have eliminated all the fighting power and sent a powerful message]

Russia is severely weak conventional and for too long uses nuclear as shield and a sword to threaten others but self-preservation rules and Putin doesn't want to start a nuclear war that potentially invites his own destruction.

I think we all falsely equates internally modern Russia to Cold War USSR. They are not the same and modern Russia is severely weak that appropriately should be termed as a local regional power like Turkey or Israel.

SolarWarden · Sunday at 1:32 PM

gelgoog said:
The numbers of air launched cruise missiles used in strikes was already decreasing as Geran production keeps increasing. The Geran is way more cost effective.

There are also other launch platforms for cruise missiles other than aviation. You have Iskander-K and Kalibr.

Some people are also making a big fuss about bomber losses being irreplaceable as the Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 are not in production. But the Tu-160 is in production and can also launch the Kh-101.

Basically.

Dude just stop already. You sound like the guy inside a burning building and saying everything is fine when it is not. If true and 40 bombers of all kind were taken out, hell lets say 10 strategic bombers were taken out, this is a huge deal for VKS and to downplay it as a no big deal is major coping.

sndef888 · Sunday at 1:37 PM

Is no one else concerned about the fact that this was a civilian disguised operation? We used to have ethical debates about this and now that it's happened everyone just seems to accept it

FriedButter · Sunday at 1:40 PM

sndef888 said:
Is no one else concerned about the fact that this was a civilian disguised operation? We used to have ethical debates about this and now that it's happened everyone just seems to accept it

Isn’t this a norm? I don’t see why there would be any debates. It isn’t like this sort of thing hasn’t been happening for thousands of years.

Kich · Sunday at 1:48 PM

sndef888 said:
Is no one else concerned about the fact that this was a civilian disguised operation? We used to have ethical debates about this and now that it's happened everyone just seems to accept it

I mentioned earlier in my comment how this provides a playbook for Taiwan. Today's event can happen to anyone.

I will add in an off tangent that expect to hear Ukraine's name mentioned 100x fold when Western discussions about Taiwan's defense arises.

Ukraine methods are seen as achievable for Taiwanese defense and sabotage techniques. While the two are not the same, expect Taiwan to try replicate Ukraine's method. Why not? It's cheap and has been proven effective.

Cheap sea drone swarms against PLAN massive navy. They don't have to slam into the ships, just arm them with AshM and have them sail in closer to launch missiles.

But at the same time, US is once again showing the world how to defend against drone swarms in the Red Sea against Yemen and in defense of Israel.

So maybe PLA is fine and Russia is just flat-out incompetent.

crazyinsane105 · Sunday at 1:51 PM

SolarWarden said:
Dude just stop already. You sound like the guy inside a burning building and saying everything is fine when it is not. If true and 40 bombers of all kind were taken out, hell lets say 10 strategic bombers were taken out, this is a huge deal for VKS and to downplay it as a no big deal is major coping.

A-50 was reported to be destroyed as well. This seriously degrades VKS in every way imaginable.

I thought two weeks back the IAF getting smacked upside the head was bad enough, but Ukraine was like ‘hey Pakistan, hold my vodka…let me show you how to really hurt your enemy’s air force’

There really is no way Russia can respond as effectively to this beyond just saying ‘no more peace talks indefinitely.’ They don’t have any capabilities they can exert on Ukraine which can tilt the battlefield one way or another at this point

tankphobia · Sunday at 1:52 PM

plawolf said:
Russia can use nukes in Ukraine and get away with it because Ukraine doesn’t have any nukes to nuke them back with. If anyone else was moronic enough to use nukes against Russia, the Russians have the nukes to nuke them right back. Which is why they don’t fear anyone else threatening them with nukes. Unless you go after Russia’s nuclear retaliation capabilities like Ukraine just did in a massive way that actually materially compromises Russian nuclear deterrence. That’s the red line that no nuclear power can afford to allow crossed without answer. And the answer needs to be suitable disproportional to discourage further such attempts to undermine Russian nuclear deterrence.

Russia can simply perform an above ground nuclear test and put your theory to rest regarding the possibility of nukes being used.

Yet they haven't even move to that step of the escalation ladder and this is the 3/4th time Russian strategic assets have been struck.

Maybe Russian leaders are not hell bent on turning their neighbour into a nuclear wasteland as posters love to suggest.

Kejora · Sunday at 1:56 PM

Kich said:
I mentioned earlier in my comment how this provides a playbook for Taiwan. Today's event can happen to anyone.

I will add in an off tangent that expect to hear Ukraine's name mentioned 100x fold when Western discussions about Taiwan's defense arises.

Ukraine methods are seen as achievable for Taiwanese defense and sabotage techniques. While the two are not the same, expect Taiwan to try replicate Ukraine's method. Why not? It's cheap and has been proven effective.

Cheap sea drone swarms against PLAN massive navy. They don't have to slam into the ships, just arm them with AshM and have them sail in closer to launch missiles.

But at the same time, US is once again showing the world how to defend against drone swarms in the Red Sea against Yemen and in defense of Israel.

So maybe PLA is fine and Russia is just flat-out incompetent.

China could also use it to their advantage. Imagine if China put several thousands FPV drones on container ships and dock it on enemy ports and use to attack enemy airbases and naval bases.

FriedButter · Sunday at 1:56 PM

Kich said:
So maybe PLA is fine and Russia is just flat-out incompetent.

The main core problem is Putin stubbornness on being a dove moderate. Reality is what the military can do in Ukraine is greatly limited by Putin insistences on continuing the conflict by tying the military hands behind their back. Compounded by the insistences with offering pointless olive branches to the West 24/7 for years. Exactly the same problems back in Appello Syria when Putin declared an ceasefire and pissed off the military.

crazyinsane105 · Sunday at 2:02 PM

tankphobia said:
Russia can simply perform an above ground nuclear test and put your theory to rest regarding the possibility of nukes being used.

Yet they haven't even move to that step of the escalation ladder and this is the 3/4th time Russian strategic assets have been struck.

Maybe Russian leaders are not hell bent on turning their neighbour into a nuclear wasteland as posters love to suggest.

Nukes are overrated. Especially in a conflict which is taking place over several hundred miles in terms of the front line and significant territory captured is in the hundreds of meters per day. Unless Russia plans on annihilating every major population center in Ukraine and hoping NATO doesn’t respond (which they most likely will at that point), nukes won’t do anything positive for Russia.

The War in the Ukraine

Kich

Junior Member

SolarWarden

Junior Member

sndef888

Captain

FriedButter

Colonel

Kich

Junior Member

crazyinsane105

Junior Member

tankphobia

Senior Member

Kejora

Junior Member

FriedButter

Colonel

crazyinsane105

Junior Member