The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
One major major major problem that Russia has is their lack of optical satellites. They only have 3 operational optical recon satellites remaining: the recently launched (March 2022) BARS-M, then Persona 2 and 3. All their other satellites like the EMKA series decayed out of orbit and weren't replaced, or failed.

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This is nothing. Russian Space Forces are asleep or something. For comparison, China has the civilian Jilin-1 constellation with 75 full sized (1+ ton, <1 m resolution) optical satellites.

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If Russian forces are not buying satellite imagery from China, they have to start yesterday. It is no wonder Ukrainian forces are achieving operational surprise.


They achieved operational surprise by using the oldest trick of the book. Bad weather. No airplane, no drone, no satellite. No aircraft to attack you nor can artillery get to you. However it also means everything will turn to mud.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
You think a near space blimp drone or a near space balloon could have help them to overcome their satellite-surveillance deficit?
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they need to invest in this capability, either by making their own or buying from China. The problem with Russia is still poor procurement practices relative to even the Ukrainians. Even by PPP, Russia is about the size of Germany. Germany cannot afford what Russia has. They need to decide what to cut and what to keep. Their military spending as %GDP is high enough, they just can't keep spreading themselves too thin.

Ukraine on the other hand had a very tightly focused procurement budget. They didn't waste their money on the Ukrainian Navy that they knew was screwed anyways. They didn't waste their money on the Ukrainian Air Force that is barely hanging on. They put all their money into the ground forces and it is paying off. Russia can afford more than the Ukrainians, but they can't afford more than NATO.

Now, Ukrainians have access to NATO ISR that Russia needs to build for itself or cooperate with China, so Russia can't just dump all their money into the ground forces like Ukraine did. But they do need to cut somewhere and redirect that money to what they actually use and need.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
They achieved operational surprise by using the oldest trick of the book. Bad weather. No airplane, no drone, no satellite. No aircraft to attack you nor can artillery get to you. However it also means everything will turn to mud.
you know what really doesn't help though? not having the satellites.

The Persona satellites are in a Sun-synchronous orbit so you should only need two satellites to cover the entire globe.
yes, in terms of area 2 can cover the globe, but their revisit times are insufficient, up to 40 days!!!

In fact, for a 560km sun-synchronous satellite with250km access ability, the revisit time is of the order of 40 days, i.e. a single satellite needs more than 40 days to provide global coverage. Therefore due such revisit requirements these LEOs are often used in satellite constellations

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So they had sufficient coverage in terms of area but time resolution is horrible.
 

lcloo

Captain
I am wondering if the Ukraine tanks and IFV that advanced far deep into previously Russian held territories, do thay have sufficient logistic support? Fuel and munition supplies have to keep up with the large number of daily consumption.

Success of Ukraine holding onto their gains will depend very much on replenishment that they will get in the next few weeks. And the coming Winter will made the ground condition bad for moving off roads.
 

jvodan

Junior Member
Registered Member
A sobering thought to Ukraine's recent victories is that Putin's political career depends on Russian victory. I cant imagine the war will just magically stop if Ukraine manages to push the Russians all the way back to the border. It may take years before anti war sentiment has spread through enough of the upper echelons of power in Russia to dispose Putin. There is always the risk that those that dispose him do so under a banner of using a stronger fist against Ukraine and not one of suing for peace.
At a point in the near future the empire is going to strike back. Ukraine needs to prepare for this. Failure to do so will mean all the lives lost in achieving the recent gains were for nothing. I hope for Ukraine's sake they are digging into at every defensible point they have captured in preparation for the winter war redux Ukraine edition.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
The AGM-88D has a GPS receiver, so it saves the GPS data of the geolocated radar position so it can accurately flies to the last known position of that radar. And the D version is already old news. The newest E variant even has an own millimeter-wave radar to detect, identify, locate, and engage moving targets.
It means the missile can save its own location, not the radar location.

It has a generic idea about the position of the radar, as good information as you have as tryting to locate the TV emitter with your TV antenna. (or maybe more inferior, the TV antenna has bigger gain than the antenna in the HARM ) .

The mm wave radar is nice toy, only problem is the missile hasn't got time to go around and search for targets, and this kind of stuff easy to fool. They looking for pattern/shape .


And finally, the HARM missiles close to useless in Ukraine, the ones that doesn't fall uselesly due to jam or malfunction been shoot down by the pantsirs of the SAM units.
 

Pmichael

Junior Member
It means the missile can save its own location, not the radar location.

It has a generic idea about the position of the radar, as good information as you have as tryting to locate the TV emitter with your TV antenna. (or maybe more inferior, the TV antenna has bigger gain than the antenna in the HARM ) .

The mm wave radar is nice toy, only problem is the missile hasn't got time to go around and search for targets, and this kind of stuff easy to fool. They looking for pattern/shape .


And finally, the HARM missiles close to useless in Ukraine, the ones that doesn't fall uselesly due to jam or malfunction been shoot down by the pantsirs of the SAM units.

The HARM saves the last known position of the radar and the latest version has three ways of guidance once the radar is turned off.
And yes everything is fine
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
Ukraine is gaining ground with technicals equipment and infantry anyways, not the little armor they still have.
From footage that's clearly untrue, on the Kherson front we have seen Ukraine field a fair number of armoured vehicles.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
From footage that's clearly untrue, on the Kherson front we have seen Ukraine field a fair number of armoured vehicles.
On Kharkov they have relied on technicals and MRAP and they are repeating the tactic in certain parts of Kherson, but where they have used mostly tanks and IFV they keep getting repelled.

Where they might have been achieving progress with tanks, is probably the units comiting Perfidy.
 
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