Automatic translation from Russian:
The key to Novorossiya: why Russian troops need to take Mykolayiv
The stage of Russia's special military operation to liberate the territory of the Donbass republics is nearing completion. But no less important in terms of carrying out the tasks of the special military operation announced by Vladimir Putin is the southern direction. Both Moscow and Kiev are aware of the strategic importance of Mykolaiv. What awaits one of the oldest Russian cities of the Black Sea region in the near future?
The other day, the executive committee of Mykolaiv city council officially banned the study of Russian language in the city. Not only the subject of "Russian language," which until recently was studied in some schools, but even the relevant elective courses were banned.
Margarita Simonyan in her telegram channel responded to this meaningfully, "As of September 1 schools in Nikolaev prohibit the study of the Russian language. So we have to take Nikolaev before 1 September".
Against this background, Ukrainian politicians "unexpectedly" started talking about the city's impregnability, and in a rather hysterical manner.
"Mykolaiv is located between two rivers, and if something is imminent, we will simply blow up two bridges. The city in such a case is a dead end, because they will have to bypass the river," said Vitaly Kim, governor of Mykolaiv Region.
"It is impossible to take Odessa without taking Mykolaiv. It is impossible to take Mykolaiv. To do that you have to stop us at Kherson, break us at Kherson, go to Mykolaiv, feeding through two strings - the Kakhovka Dam and the Antonov Bridge. It is absolutely unrealistic," Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, echoed him.
Shortly before this absentee discussion, Russian military correspondents reported that the Russian Armed Forces had established full control over the Kynbirna Spit in the south of the Mykolayiv region.
To begin with we have to state the obvious. Those who say that Russian troops must take Nikolaev are right. There are several reasons for this.
The city "looms" over Kherson, and as long as Mykolaiv is under the control of the Ukraine's armed forces, there will be no peace in the Northern Black Sea Region. Tochka-U missiles and reconnaissance and sabotage groups are flying into Kherson from the Mykolaiv area. In addition, the city of Ochakov in Mykolaiv region "locks up" access to the sea from the Dnieper-Bug estuary and thereby blocks the work of Kherson ports. But it is not the only thing that is important.
During Soviet times, Nikolaev was one of the few sites in the world for the construction of aircraft carriers. All Soviet heavy aircraft-carrying cruisers were built here, at the Black Sea Shipyard (BSS), but during the Ukrainian period the shipbuilding practically died out. The Black Sea Shipyard and another major shipyard were declared bankrupt and virtually liquidated.
Part of the waterfront of the Black Sea Shipyard (BSS) was bought by Ukrainian oligarch Oleksiy Vadaturskiy (JV Nibulon) for the transhipment of grain. Nevertheless, according to experts, the existing sites make it possible to revive one of the world's largest shipbuilding complexes. And it is extremely important, because sooner or later Russia will have to return to the question of building its own aircraft carrier fleet. And in this sense, the liberation of Nikolaev from the Nazis is highly relevant.
We should not forget the factor of historical justice. Nikolaev is an indigenous Russian city, founded by Catherine II and Grigory Potemkin.
Virtually 100 per cent of the local population speaks Russian at home. Therefore, the measures taken by the Ukrainian occupation authorities in the spirit of banning the study of the Russian language in schools look like an elaborate mockery of its inhabitants. Moreover, during the Maidan protests of 2004 and 2014 Mykolaiv was a major centre of the anti-fascist resistance.
It is not often mentioned today, but a few weeks before the mass murder on 2 May 2014 in the Trade Union House in Odessa, representatives of far-right criminals "rehearsed" this crime in Mykolaiv by attacking the local anti-Maidan camp at night. It has never been officially reported exactly how many people were the victims of this raid.
And, of course, the infrastructure factor should not be forgotten.
The Bug estuary is 11 kilometres wide to the south of Nikolaev, and the Southern Bug in its lower reaches is 2 kilometres wide. The main crossing of the river is the Varvarovsky bridge, located in the town. Bypassing the Mykolaiv region, travelling towards Odessa, is extremely problematic.
Still, Vitaly Kim, governor of Mykolaiv Region was very sarcastic when he spoke of "undermining two bridges". Destruction of the Ingulsky bridge in Mykolaiv would create inconvenience mainly for local residents, because there are also crossings over the Ingul river upstream. The problem of a temporary replacement for the Varvarovsky bridge could, in principle, also be solved.
Option one was to bypass the town of Voznesensk, north of the river (advanced groups of Russian troops had already approached it during the initial stage of the special operation), and option two was to erect a temporary crossing. It is clear that to do this under fire from the western bank is extremely problematic. It is at this stage that the Kynburne Spit could play a role.
Those who today draw maps of the main attack on Mykolaiv from Kinburn through Ochakov have not bothered to understand the geography of the region.
The entrance to the Dnieper-Bug estuary between the Spit and Ochakov is now blocked by Ukrainian barges and clearly mined. And it is physically impossible to "drag" large landing craft through Kinburn. And the large-scale landing itself is fraught with serious difficulties. The right bank of the estuary is precipitous. Only certain areas of the coast are convenient for landing, which are probably reliably covered by the artillery of the enemy.
However, if the advance from Kinburn to the north takes place against the background of the operation near Mykolaiv itself, it may prove successful (the Ukrainian military will simply have no time to repel it), in which case it will solve the problem of potential attempts by the Ukrainian armed forces to prevent the forcing of the Southern Bug. Therefore the Ukrainian authorities should not aggravate their future by absolutely senseless from the military point of view barbaric actions like undermining the bridges that Ukraine inherited from the USSR.
Now Nikolaev, at the centre of historical Novorossia, is the key to the North-Western Black Sea region. Establishing full control over it would enable an almost unhindered offensive to the border with Odessa Oblast, as there are few places in that direction that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could "get a grip" on.
However, in order to establish effective control over Mykolaiv, one crucial point must be taken into account. The city's population has been living in close proximity to the front line for several months now and, being in an almost complete information vacuum, has been actively processed by Ukrainian propaganda.
These are Russian-speaking people who, until recently, voted en masse for the Party of Regions and came out to rally against the Maidan coup d'état. But now many of them are disoriented, frightened and unaware of what is actually happening.
Therefore, even before a possible offensive begins, we need to try to reach them through all possible means of communication - from messengers and social media to radio broadcasts and leaflets. The truth is, in a sense, no less effective than tanks or cruise missiles.
