The War in the Ukraine

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Looks like the battle is coming to a close. Ukraine is withdrawing, but Russia is trying to cut the retreat. How much can they pull back? And to what pulled back can it resist an attack coming again?
Current state of the war is that Lysychansk-Severodonetsk salient is being abandoned. But the only escape is along a road controlled by Russian fire support. Based on footage of AFU soldiers riding in minivans, I assume that they are not towing their APCs behind them. So there may be mass abandonment of heavy equipment even if the soldiers escape.
 

TK3600

Captain
Registered Member
Current state of the war is that Lysychansk-Severodonetsk salient is being abandoned. But the only escape is along a road controlled by Russian fire support. Based on footage of AFU soldiers riding in minivans, I assume that they are not towing their APCs behind them. So there may be mass abandonment of heavy equipment even if the soldiers escape.
Minivan wont protect them from artillery like APC though.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Minivan wont protect them from artillery like APC though.
well that's what the videos are showing. There are some a few pages back, and here's a picture of a militarized minivan:

proxy-image

a minivan won't protect against artillery but it might be all they have left if they're out of fuel for APCs.
 

tank3487

Junior Member
Registered Member
My assessment was that Russia's initial objectives were the Oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. Then followed by either: Kharkiv & Dnipropetrovsk, or Mykolaiv & Odessa.
It depend on negotiations also. If Ukraine would be ready to strike some kind of deal. It is possible that everything would end with Ukraine losing just Kherson, Donbass and chunk of Zaporozhia.

Water for Crimea and Donbass were always essential goals for Russia. And with Lugansk region control, it is just Kramatorsk and Slavyansk left out of large cities to complete it.

But if deal would not be possible, it is likely that Ukraine would see additional losses.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
I mean isn't it so small that a single artillery barrage or tochka-U would hit everything on it?

Ukraine lost a shit ton of ppl trying to launch attacks to take it back. Presumably, Russia realized that its easier to just defend it from air/sea and not put soldiers on the little rock.

About why they retreated from Kiev direction, as much as some ppl say its because they were overwhelmed, I don't really trust that. Russia barely lost any troops in the North, nearly all losses were in the south (Mauripol) and Donbass.

Conventional wisdom says you need a larger force when invading with the intent of total annexation. Look at the Iraq war for example, US surrounded and had about 1.1 as many troops even with Iraq's deficient command and non existent air force.

Russia had 150 000 to Kiev's 400 000. It is just stupid to push under such conditions, unless the goal of the Kiev push was to force all the elite Ukraine battalions to abandon the south and Donbass, giving the LDPR time to mobilize their soldiers.
 
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