Because things that been done for thousands of years aren't allowed anymore. Nuclear use was only 80 years ago.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
The US has been dealing with drones over its air bases it recent years and this is exactly the type of attack people are afraid would happen. I don't think a comprehensive system for defeating FPV drones currently exists, and to further compounding the problem is that hardened aircraft shelters are expensive to make and maintain (especially if you need to make thousands of them).
You realize that Russia is still far, far away from recapturing areas it actually lost to Ukraine in 2022? Lyman, Izium, Kherson area. Not to mention that Russia has no capability at this point, or in the near future, to try and do another march towards Kiev.
This war is a pretty big embarrassment to Russia and further attacks, like the one that happened, are pretty much eroding Russia’s strategic defense against the West, while the West itself remains completely unscathed
Loss is a subjective, judging by the size of explosive payload on those drones most damage were induced by hitting a filled fuel tank, so majority of hits on unfueld aircraft were light damage, will still require repair which takes time but an operational issue over a material one.
At end of the day Ukraine isn't trying to win the war with these so how much Russia lost doesn't matter, the nature of these are like V2 or Kamakazi, its for boosting their own morale, and that goal has obviously been achieved.. at least until Russia retaliate.
They aren't that far from either Izium or Lyman.
But yeah crossing the river to Kherson is unlikely.
They have the capability, but to fight inside the city would take a lot of troops. You would need a large scale mobilization and the Russian government thus far has balked at this.
This is a big part of the problem IMO, while you can argue a protracted war for sustainable victory require a metered approach to resource allocation, Russian attitude of treating Ukrainians as brothers while Ukrainians, include those who can speak Russian have been brainwashed for 30 years to hate Russia invites terror attacks. There are ethnicity based domestic policies that can effectively eliminate this kind of problem, but those cannot be implemented without by default assume Ukrainians as an ethnicity are a threat, to switch from treating each case separately to implementing a catch-all system to pre-emptively eliminate all possible threats.
Case in point, do what China did in Xinjiang with everyone with Ukrainians background or connections.
While China does have a more advanced domestic security apparatus, it should still be remembered to not make this mistake with Taiwan, everyone with Taiwan connection must be assumed to be a threat, even if they lived on the mainland for years or profess support for unification. Any mercy you show your enemy is cruelty to your own people.
The ground campaign is slow because there's no counter to fpv drones. You can't mass a ground force to launch a mission without being spotted by some drone which calls in some HIMARS or artillery strikes or even more drones to harass you.
Also their Air Force have no SEAD or DEAD capabilities.
So what you got is just a bloody crawl for some dozen kms of land grab (which is just planting flag and hiding from the open). Lots of grey zones everywhere.
This conflict would be over by now if Russia had some anti-drone APS for their armor and anti-drone system for personal. At least their Air Force would provide cover from behind while the ground units marched.
Cheap drones have changed everything.
When you say Russia has no sead capabilities, are you suggesting US has something special in terms of SEAD that Russia doesn't have or have not tried in this war? They have tried everything when it comes to finding and destroying Ukrainian Air defenses. They have succeeded many times and also failed many times.
There is absolutely nothing that US air force has that can beat the layered soviet and the western supplied air defenses that Ukraine posessed.
Even US stealth fighters and bombers would take serious risk if they go against this AD network.
Every heard of the Kh-31?
The Russians have DEAD capabilities.
Most Flanker aircraft also come with Khibiny which can detect and jam radiation sources.
Their main issue is that Ukraine air defenses can keep their radars turned off until the last minute because NATO aircraft provide them with early warning. And that there are loads of such defenses. Next to Russia, Ukraine is the country in Europe with the most air defenses.