Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.


supersnoop

Junior Member
Registered Member
From World News thread
You are right, my mistake

I hear recently ROCAF has given up sending up fighters to tangle with each incursion because ROCAF is near combat ineffective from exhaustion. Recently they've instead taken up the habit of targeting PLAAF aircraft with surface to air missile's fire control system radar.

To which PLAAF are basically like "Oh, bonus! Gee thanks for showing us how your air defence system work before the fighting even start, that should take another few minutes off your life expectancy when things go loud."

You can see both groups have AWAC or ECM aircraft present just for studying Taiwan's air defence system response.

North Group:
View attachment 70487

South Group:
View attachment 70488

South Group according to flightrader, just in case you're not convinced ROCAF lies basically every day with their flight path that they release:
View attachment 70486

Question for people with more expertise than myself.
Flying over the south and east sides are something like more realistic preparation for any sort of intervention scenario.
Combination of AWACS/MPA/J-10/J-16 is the kind of combined operation that was not possible until recently.
Furthermore, such a package (to me anyway), seems like a realistic strike-escort package for anti-shipping operations
ECM craft can recon if there exist reasonable surface-based anti-air support for these operations.
 

crash8pilot

Junior Member
Registered Member
From World News thread


Question for people with more expertise than myself.
Flying over the south and east sides are something like more realistic preparation for any sort of intervention scenario.
Combination of AWACS/MPA/J-10/J-16 is the kind of combined operation that was not possible until recently.
Furthermore, such a package (to me anyway), seems like a realistic strike-escort package for anti-shipping operations
ECM craft can recon if there exist reasonable surface-based anti-air support for these operations.

Not an expert, but my two-cents:
  • Just my hypothesis - gut feeling is that the waters are swamped with underwater threats (okay slight exaggeration - maybe not filled with submarines, but the possibility of even one SSBN off the coast of China doesn't exactly sit well), that explains the ASW Y-8/9s.
  • With tensions practically at an all time high, the PLA wouldn't be flying airborne assets unescorted, and that's why we see the fighters (chances are J-16s are also armed with AShMs and ARMs).
  • AWACs paints an accurate image of the sky just in case the ROC, JSDF, USAF F-15 fighters at Kadena or Super Hornets from a nearby 7th Fleet CVW scramble and escalate to directly engage PLA air assets.
  • Y-8/9 ECM variants not only conduct reconnaissance by painting the EW image of where hostile radars are, they more importantly can jam the hell out said radars to make it challenging to obtain a solution to fire off SAM missiles at PLAAF airborne assets. They could also aid PLA fighters in SEAD/DEAD should things escalate.
  • It reads more as an act of reactionary self-defense (against my hypothesis of sub-surface threats, or USAF aircraft skirting near our borders) or deterrence rather than a direct military intervention/invasion preparation.
  • If the PLA indeed needed to practice their tactics for invasion, imho they'd be doing it at the testing facilities in Dingxin at Gansu Province far away from the public eye rather than the skies of the Taiwan Strait.
 
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siegecrossbow

Brigadier
Staff member
Super Moderator
Not an expert, but my two-cents:
  • Gut feeling is that the waters are swamped with underwater threats (okay slight exaggeration - maybe not filled, but the possibility of even one SSBN off the coast of China doesn't exactly sit well), that explains the ASW Y-8/9s.
  • With tensions practically at an all time high, the PLA wouldn't be flying airborne assets unescorted, and that's why we see the fighters (chances are J-16s are also armed with AShMs and ARMs).
  • AWACs paints an accurate image of the sky just in case the ROC, JSDF, or USAF fighters at Kadena or a CVW scramble and escalate to directly engage PLA air assets.
  • Y-8/9 ECM variants not only conduct reconnaissance by painting the EW image of where hostile radars are, they more importantly can jam the hell out said radars to make it challenging to obtain a solution to fire off SAM missiles at PLAAF airborne assets. They could also aid PLA fighters in SEAD/DEAD should things escalate.
  • It reads more as an act of reactionary self-defense (against my hypothesis of sub-surface threats, or USAF aircraft skirting near our borders) or deterrence rather than a direct military intervention/invasion preparation.
  • If the PLA indeed needed to practice their tactics for invasion, imho they'd be doing it at the testing facilities in Dingxin at Gansu Province far away from the public eye rather than the skies of the Taiwan Strait.

Nope. Weather and terrain conditions at Dingxin are vastly different from that of Taiwan strait. Dingxin is useful for DACT and aerial combat strategy validation, but not the substitute for the real thing.

The rumor I heard before CD closed down is that they are rotating aircraft/pilots from the Eastern and maybe other theater commands for Taiwan enforcement flights. One of the benefits is to familiarize the pilots with conditions in the straits.
 

voyager1

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not an expert, but my two-cents:
  • Gut feeling is that the waters are swamped with underwater threats (okay slight exaggeration - maybe not filled, but the possibility of even one SSBN off the coast of China doesn't exactly sit well), that explains the ASW Y-8/9s.
  • With tensions practically at an all time high, the PLA wouldn't be flying airborne assets unescorted, and that's why we see the fighters (chances are J-16s are also armed with AShMs and ARMs).
  • AWACs paints an accurate image of the sky just in case the ROC, JSDF, or USAF fighters at Kadena or a CVW scramble and escalate to directly engage PLA air assets.
  • Y-8/9 ECM variants not only conduct reconnaissance by painting the EW image of where hostile radars are, they more importantly can jam the hell out said radars to make it challenging to obtain a solution to fire off SAM missiles at PLAAF airborne assets. They could also aid PLA fighters in SEAD/DEAD should things escalate.
  • It reads more as an act of reactionary self-defense (against my hypothesis of sub-surface threats, or USAF aircraft skirting near our borders) or deterrence rather than a direct military intervention/invasion preparation.
  • If the PLA indeed needed to practice their tactics for invasion, imho they'd be doing it at the testing facilities in Dingxin at Gansu Province far away from the public eye rather than the skies of the Taiwan Strait.
I am not an expert but cant China build thousands of cheap UUVs and then let them loose to the surrounding waters with actice sonars trying to pinpoint enemy submarine's location.

If it is just a big problem for the PLA I dont know why they just dont throw money and just make the entire area full of UUVs
 

crash8pilot

Junior Member
Registered Member
Nope. Weather and terrain conditions at Dingxin are vastly different from that of Taiwan strait. Dingxin is useful for DACT and aerial combat strategy validation, but not the substitute for the real thing.
Not doubting what you're saying, just quoting what I said based on a
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... I know they can be biased and may indeed report in a more dramatic fashion to escalate the depiction of PLA thread/readiness, but I can certainly see some credit in their reporting. Just sayin why would the PLA and the CMC want to let NATO know their roadmap on how they intend to take back Taiwan militarily should say Tsai Ing-Wen and the DDP declare independence?

Screenshot 2021-03-29 at 6.47.57 PM.png
 
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PUFF_DRAGON

New Member
Registered Member
I am not an expert but cant China build thousands of cheap UUVs and then let them loose to the surrounding waters with actice sonars trying to pinpoint enemy submarine's location.

If it is just a big problem for the PLA I dont know why they just dont throw money and just make the entire area full of UUVs

The expense. Powerful electronic equipment like active sonars and air war radars cost an arm and a leg. I don't have figures on hand for mil-spec sonars but the air war radars on an Arleigh Burke destroyer costs like $400 million and the diesel electric generators that power them also cost similar amounts. At that point why not just buy an entire war submarine.

SOSUS, the American sonar net works because AIUI the sonar buoys are wired to power plants on land.
 

siegecrossbow

Brigadier
Staff member
Super Moderator
Not doubting what you're saying, just quoting what I said based on a RAND report... I know they can be biased, but I can certainly see some credit in their reporting. Just sayin why would the PLA and the CMC want to let NATO know their roadmap on how they intend to take back Taiwan militarily should say Tsai Ing-Wen and the DDP declare independence?

View attachment 70498

Obviously China can't bomb the real deal. But my point stands. It is important to familiarize PLAAF pilots with he actual conditions near Taiwan.
 

supersnoop

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not an expert, but my two-cents:
  • Just my hypothesis - gut feeling is that the waters are swamped with underwater threats (okay slight exaggeration - maybe not filled with submarines, but the possibility of even one SSBN off the coast of China doesn't exactly sit well), that explains the ASW Y-8/9s.
  • With tensions practically at an all time high, the PLA wouldn't be flying airborne assets unescorted, and that's why we see the fighters (chances are J-16s are also armed with AShMs and ARMs).
  • AWACs paints an accurate image of the sky just in case the ROC, JSDF, USAF F-15 fighters at Kadena or Super Hornets from a nearby 7th Fleet CVW scramble and escalate to directly engage PLA air assets.
  • Y-8/9 ECM variants not only conduct reconnaissance by painting the EW image of where hostile radars are, they more importantly can jam the hell out said radars to make it challenging to obtain a solution to fire off SAM missiles at PLAAF airborne assets. They could also aid PLA fighters in SEAD/DEAD should things escalate.
  • It reads more as an act of reactionary self-defense (against my hypothesis of sub-surface threats, or USAF aircraft skirting near our borders) or deterrence rather than a direct military intervention/invasion preparation.
  • If the PLA indeed needed to practice their tactics for invasion, imho they'd be doing it at the testing facilities in Dingxin at Gansu Province far away from the public eye rather than the skies of the Taiwan Strait.

This is a big problem for ROCAF. If the truth is that scrambling aircraft is becoming more and more straining, this will only grow increasingly worse.

As mentioned, a sortie of this size and sophistication was not within the capabilities of PLA even as recent as 10 years ago. Meanwhile, within the same timeframe, ROCAF front line fighter force has shrunk (F-16 and IDF #s basically stayed the same while Mirage is reaching end of life, and F-5 is no longer viable).

Without any overseas commitments and an increasing operations budget, PLA will be free to commit more and more of these exercises in the future.

As a result, I wonder what the future composition of ROCAF will be. Will they ever get F-35? (Argument in this thread before was "red line" and/or espionage concerns, of which I think the latter is more likely)

Future SAM development will also be highly taxed as missiles will be tasked to deal with more PGMs and aircraft themselves.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
This is a big problem for ROCAF. If the truth is that scrambling aircraft is becoming more and more straining, this will only grow increasingly worse.
That's why they're now taking to tracking the PLA aircraft with ground-based sites. I don't know if that means they won't scramble until they know the invasion is coming or if they'll do it but less frequently.
As a result, I wonder what the future composition of ROCAF will be. Will they ever get F-35? (Argument in this thread before was "red line" and/or espionage concerns, of which I think the latter is more likely)
A better question is whether China will attempt to invade before the F-35 could reasonably be made available if a sale was approved during the Biden administration.
 

SimaQian

Junior Member
Registered Member
A better question is whether China will attempt to invade before the F-35 could reasonably be made available if a sale was approved during the Biden administration.
Actually some Taiwan commentators that everything is ready now for invasion. The Chinese leadership is just waiting for the Taiwan government to make a mistake. One recent example was the cancelled Kelly Craft visit to Taiwan last January 2021. That was a close call since the PLA is threatening to use of force if the visit was pushed. It was the speculated reason why Kelly's aircraft circled around for hours and force Mike Pompeo to cancel the trip not just for Taiwan but also in Europe diplomatic trips just to cover the Taiwan trip issue. And this happened around Washington insurrection. Take note of the current reconciliatory tone of the Taiwan leadership after this event.

So no, the reunification is not a function of the availability of F-35. If the Taiwanese government is careful enough not to trigger Chinese leadership, it is a safe bet it could happen after the next Chinese leadership change in 2022. It is one of the primary reasons why Xi Jinping has been granted by constitution to rule China indefinitely. He made it clear from the beginning of his term to solve this Taiwan issue and not pass through the next generation of Chinese leaders.
 

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