Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.


escobar

Brigadier
That's why they're now taking to tracking the PLA aircraft with ground-based sites. I don't know if that means they won't scramble until they know the invasion is coming or if they'll do it but less frequently.

A better question is whether China will attempt to invade before the F-35 could reasonably be made available if a sale was approved during the Biden administration.
What exactly F-35 will change ?
 

silentlurker

Junior Member
Registered Member
Actually some Taiwan commentators that everything is ready now for invasion. The Chinese leadership is just waiting for the Taiwan government to make a mistake. One recent example was the cancelled Kelly Craft visit to Taiwan last January 2021. That was a close call since the PLA is threatening to use of force if the visit was pushed. It was the speculated reason why Kelly's aircraft circled around for hours and force Mike Pompeo to cancel the trip not just for Taiwan but also in Europe diplomatic trips just to cover the Taiwan trip issue. And this happened around Washington insurrection. Take note of the current reconciliatory tone of the Taiwan leadership after this event.

So no, the reunification is not a function of the availability of F-35. If the Taiwanese government is careful enough not to trigger Chinese leadership, it is a safe bet it could happen after the next Chinese leadership change in 2022. It is one of the primary reasons why Xi Jinping has been granted by constitution to rule China indefinitely. He made it clear from the beginning of his term to solve this Taiwan issue and not pass through the next generation of Chinese leaders.
My question then, if China is waiting for Taiwan to slip up why warn the US? Let the trip happen, Kelly Craft announces US supports independent Taiwan for UN or whatever, then declare war immediately after.
 

silentlurker

Junior Member
Registered Member
Actually some Taiwan commentators that everything is ready now for invasion. The Chinese leadership is just waiting for the Taiwan government to make a mistake. One recent example was the cancelled Kelly Craft visit to Taiwan last January 2021. That was a close call since the PLA is threatening to use of force if the visit was pushed. It was the speculated reason why Kelly's aircraft circled around for hours and force Mike Pompeo to cancel the trip not just for Taiwan but also in Europe diplomatic trips just to cover the Taiwan trip issue. And this happened around Washington insurrection. Take note of the current reconciliatory tone of the Taiwan leadership after this event.

So no, the reunification is not a function of the availability of F-35. If the Taiwanese government is careful enough not to trigger Chinese leadership, it is a safe bet it could happen after the next Chinese leadership change in 2022. It is one of the primary reasons why Xi Jinping has been granted by constitution to rule China indefinitely. He made it clear from the beginning of his term to solve this Taiwan issue and not pass through the next generation of Chinese leaders.
My question then, if China is waiting for Taiwan to slip up why warn the US? Let the trip happen, Kelly Craft announces US supports independent Taiwan for UN or whatever, then declare war immediately after.
 

supersnoop

Junior Member
Registered Member
That's why they're now taking to tracking the PLA aircraft with ground-based sites. I don't know if that means they won't scramble until they know the invasion is coming or if they'll do it but less frequently.

A better question is whether China will attempt to invade before the F-35 could reasonably be made available if a sale was approved during the Biden administration.
I don't think any invasion would be predicated on a F-35 sale. It is not a "wunderwaffe", and the price precludes any shift of the strategic balance. Honestly, there are probably enough intelligence assets in Taiwan that such a sale would be cautiously welcomed behind closed doors.

My point is more to the fact that there is no obvious path forward at the moment. IDF is getting old (needs some major upgrades like AESA, but the engines are probably too weak for it), Mirage is a dead end, ~100 F-16V is a fraction of the front line force in the early 2000's (~300 between Mirage, IDF, F-16A/B).

My question then, if China is waiting for Taiwan to slip up why warn the US? Let the trip happen, Kelly Craft announces US supports independent Taiwan for UN or whatever, then declare war immediately after.
I don't think that the idea is to fight a war over Taiwan, just to be able to win one. PRC was willing to wait 70 years for HK, they are willing to wait for TW. Without a term limit, Xi Jinping can afford to wait. The time limitation is really more on America's watch, not PRC's. In another 10 years, PLAN will likely be able to float 2 CVBGs to the west coast of the island. At that point, the strategic balance is probably sealed. That isn't to say that the government can't stubbornly hold out and ignore reality (see: Ukraine), but it would be in the best interest to figure out a solution that is win-win.
 

gelgoog

Captain
Registered Member
No aircraft can solve Taiwan's problem. Not the F-35 either. The PRC can use long range rocket artillery to blow up all their airbases.
The PRC could invade Taiwan right now. But the longer they wait the better chances they will have. Even with currently projected Taiwan weapons purchases their situation won't change all that much because any expense Taiwan makes will be vastly outweighed by the PRC.
Another thing is, why invade Taiwan right now when they will have 6x Type 055 cruisers and 3x Type 075 LHDs enter service in a year or two? Why rush it?
 

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