PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

GZDRefugee

Junior Member
Registered Member
I also expect extensive use of micro drones that can drone swarm and navigate complex dynamic environments like forests to be scattered by larger drones or powered dispensers to thoroughly check areas for hidden enemy assets, with overhead UCAVs ready to delivery immediate fires on any targets revealed by the mini drones.
What's the advantage of this if you can just stick a bomb on the micro drones? You would have a better response time due to proximity and better range due to no need for recovery of ultimately expendable assets. Just send in the swarm, anything that is humanoid and glowing on thermals eats an explosion. Anything else that is vehicle or building shaped is queued for a loitering munition or overhead UCAV to strike.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
So not much videos provided by PLA of the exercises? When Pelosi landed, we got videos from live fire exercises, ballistic missile launching, fighter jets etc.
There is fewer indeed, more may come out over time.
Just saw this photo for example:
61ab5cebly1hq0u4tshxkj20ve0hngms.jpg
052D 155 is Nanjing, named after (former?) capital of ROC.

Funnily enough Type 22 missile boat have also been spotted exercising near those outlaying islands.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
What's the advantage of this if you can just stick a bomb on the micro drones? You would have a better response time due to proximity and better range due to no need for recovery of ultimately expendable assets. Just send in the swarm, anything that is humanoid and glowing on thermals eats an explosion. Anything else that is vehicle or building shaped is queued for a loitering munition or overhead UCAV to strike.

Duration/coverage and damage assessment.

With a small drone, you are really going to struggling to have it carry any meaningful explosive payload without massively reducing its range. That means each swarm will only be able to cover a fraction of the area it might over wise be able to search without the explosives.

The payload your micro drones sacrificed so much range to carry will also have questionable effectiveness against SAMs and Radars.

If you turn your drones into suicide attackers, you then loose your drones when you attack. That means it can leave a big question mark on whether you actually taken out the target. This is why Lancets tend to have Supercams overhead when attacking and is a major shortcoming of the Harpy.

As such, it’s far better to keep your micro drones light so they can search a bigger area faster, and also have them on hand to do close up damage assessment after the air strikes have landed to confirm target destroyed or call in follow up shots to finish any survivors.

The kind of suicide micro drones you suggest would be better suited for anti-infantry work. For example clearing a beachhead of defenders and urban warfare and counter insurgency ops etc.
 

lcloo

Captain
There is fewer indeed, more may come out over time.
Just saw this photo for example:
View attachment 130038
052D 155 is Nanjing, named after (former?) capital of ROC.

Funnily enough Type 22 missile boat have also been spotted exercising near those outlaying islands.
This photo depicted Taiwan's Tuo Chiang class catamaran corvette along side PLAN DDG #155. This time PLAN ships must be very close to Taiwan island shores.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
This photo depicted Taiwan's Tuo Chiang class catamaran corvette along side PLAN DDG #155. This time PLAN ships must be very close to Taiwan island shores.
For closeness here's another one:

007Gut6Lly1hq0g5ephd4j32801o0b29.jpg
This time around CCG sent multiple ships to patrol the east side of Taiwan, this one got close enough to see the coast and even central mountain.

Actually that's an aspect of the exercise this time around that's different from before. There are multiple instances this time of PLAN working closely with CCG:
006Rm4MAgy1hpzrlyvgwdj31yz10zaz5.jpg
The type 22 with smaller CCG ship took place somewhere near one of the outlaying islands.

006Rm4MAgy1hpzrm4ms7zj31wp0uxh9p.jpg
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
All lines related to independence trend upwards.

IMO status quo as it stands is basically de facto independence. Policies adopted by the DPP is blatantly hostile towards the mainland. Remember, Pelosi visiting, US troops stationed on Kinmen, and TSMC sanctions are "status quo".

2019 uptick in sentiments was due to the USA-instigated riots in HK. It is starting to go back down. Sticking to status-quo in some way has always been the majority opinion for decades.

All your examples are recent developments. Status quo has not been static over the last 75 years. You have gone from open hostility to direct travel links. This wasn’t even really imaginable even as recently as the 90’s. As a point of comparison, try taking a flight from Seoul to Pyongyang. You’ll be picking missile fragments out from your behind… It was actually under the CSB-DPP regime (the same CSB who wanted to declare independence while PRC was not as strong, but discouraged by Bush Jr. for GWoT support) when the first charter flights were made. Once CSB left, regular flights were established.

Even under Tsai-DPP, they had to relent and allow critical infrastructure on their territory to be supplied by mainland (Kinmen fresh water pipeline).

Maybe one day status quo will be PLA base in Hualien, yet somehow DPP still exists. What would we say then? DPP still has to deal with reality too.

For closeness here's another one:

View attachment 130039
This time around CCG sent multiple ships to patrol the east side of Taiwan, this one got close enough to see the coast and even central mountain.

Actually that's an aspect of the exercise this time around that's different from before. There are multiple instances this time of PLAN working closely with CCG:
View attachment 130040
The type 22 with smaller CCG ship took place somewhere near one of the outlaying islands.

View attachment 130041

One thing to always remember with these exercises, the equipment is probably less important compared to the level of integration and coordination shown by forces. Here we can see direct coordination between Coast Guard and Navy. In the event of a conflict, Coast Guard should be effectively able to handle some auxiliary taskings from the Navy. ROCN actually has a similar concern as the Tuo-Chiang is also used by the ROCCG.

2022 we saw operational deployment of YY-20 and J-16D which are new platforms in those Taiwan exercises, so there is some forward thinking in utilizing future assets.
 
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