China fields 5th generation fighters in quantity. If AR happens on the timeline I think most likely, it will have far greater numbers of 5th and 6th generation fighters. We haven't seen how AD can defend against that kind of threat.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
It would be interesting to know where about USS Theodore Roosevelt and her group are, if they are making their way back up north or not. If you've been following the SCS thread you'll know recently she ran off to Singapore around the time when the Atin Ito/Huangyan Island stand off was flaring up.
It's a bit interesting that she's kind of out of position for May 20 happening.
When nothing happens again, can we report these accounts for engagement farming? There needs to be some consequences for this.
China will also need her own counterpart to the ADM-160C MALD - And plenty of them.
The functions of the ADM-160C are:
1. Decoy & deception (by baiting enemy aerial A2/AD systems to expose their location and fire control information);
2. Offensive ECM (jamming and suppression of enemy aerial A2/AD systems); and
3. Defensive ECM (accompanying attack aircraft/bombers against enemy AAM/SAM interception, and LACMs/AShCMs swarms by providing close-range ECM "escort" to them on their way towards their targets i.e. acting as mini-EW loyal wingman UCAV)
In fact, the USN has requested Raytheon to develop an even more advanced variant of the ADM-160 that would have enhanced ground-hugging/sea-skimming, ECM, networking and unmanned-unmanned collaboration capabilities since 2016. Hence, it would be prudent for China to employ similar missiles for suppression of enemy A2/AD systems against not just the rebel island, but along the entire 1IC as well.
I think cpc goal is increasing the economic integration and I guess dependence so that it will convince younger gen wanese their future lies with mainland. That better opportunity is in mainland. But I’m hearing some chatter among younger wanese community around me here in Aus and on FB they are getting more resistant instead. Not sure if they matter as much. They could easily yield when they realize US are treating like pawns and fighting china till the last wanwanese. these are the strawberry generation after all.
But the thought of a far right Nazi like group similar to Azov fanatics to hijack the political and military apparatus in tw that is vehemently anti mainland is starting to worry me. I hope it won’t happen though.
lcloo
Captain
An effective way of eliminating Taiwan's air defense missiles is gathering intelligence on positions of their stockpile, and detroy them at the start of AR with 300-400mm bunker buster guided rockets. With-out replenishment, SAM launchers will quickly have no missiles to fire.
And this applies to other types of munition stores of ROC army and navy.
And this applies to other types of munition stores of ROC army and navy.
I still can't believe people think Taiwan can shoot the three gorges dam. Some ROC general said that was not possible in 2017. 7 years later people still haven't states what weapon Taiwan will do it with since that dam can stand a nuke.
the biggest capability for AD is something you can't buy: geography.
Ukraine had the 2nd strongest air defense in Europe after Russia itself. And it's been getting pounded by like what, 3k cruise missiles? But they can keep functioning thanks to geography that allows them to forward deploy short ranged air defense in hidden positions, long range strategic radars forcing low flight and spotters doing visual search.
This allows forward deployed air defenses to shoot Russian planes at point blank range with radars only turning on for final engagement.
Their geography also allows them to resupply easily.
Taiwan won't have that luxury. They must keep their radars on to shoot because there's nowhere for observers or hidden launchers in the strait and all their strategic assets are basically right on the beach including most of their civilian population so they can't just pull back inland. Not that there's much 'inland' to pull back to.
But on the opposite side, to strike any target in China of importance, they have to face the same geographic challenges of overflying hostile territory.
So not much videos provided by PLA of the exercises? When Pelosi landed, we got videos from live fire exercises, ballistic missile launching, fighter jets etc.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Taiwan can’t mitigate its fundamental Achilles Heel of distance and space.
It has a lot of AD assets, but not a lot of space to move them around in, and very little time to get moving in the event of AR breaking out.
The bulk of its AD assets are almost certainly going to be destroyed in warehouses and at bases before they even get a chance to think about deploying or dispersing.
The Harpy is really an obsolete weapon and strategy for the PLA these days. They are still effective at their role, but given the kinds of options the PLA has at their disposal, I just don’t think those Harpies will get a chance to do much as the fight would essentially be over by the time they can get on station.
For long term SEAD/DEAD, I think the PLA will use a combination of UAVs, UCAVs and J16s.
WingLoongs and other medium/heavy UCAVs will be essentially take over the SEAD part of the mission from Harpies by providing a 24/7 persistent, recoverable overhead presence with near immediate strike capability as soon as targets are revealed.
I also expect extensive use of micro drones that can drone swarm and navigate complex dynamic environments like forests to be scattered by larger drones or powered dispensers to thoroughly check areas for hidden enemy assets, with overhead UCAVs ready to delivery immediate fires on any targets revealed by the mini drones. Patrolling J16s would be able to bring heavier ordinance to bare almost as quickly should the need arise, and land based MLRS and ballistic missiles are also available for rapid engagement should targets that warrant their deployment be detected.
This is why I always think the Ukraine war is a terrible example for what modern drone warfare will be like. Not because I don’t think drones will revolutionise modern combat, but because I don’t think people can yet fully comprehend just how radical that revolution will be when you have dedicated combat drones deployed on an industrial scale as a comprehensive, multifaceted, mutually supporting ecosystem with multiple redundancies and mutual support baked in, as opposed to the jury-rigged piecemeal approach with converted commercial drones we are seeing in Ukraine. It will be like WWI first gen tanks against modern MBTs.