PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
He seems fully convinced that China's global rise will be peaceful with countries in the Asian region gradually accepting this geostrategic leadership in Beijing's orbit, but this is something that is unlikely to happen in the real world, the US has a policy aimed at containing China in the same way it contained the Soviet Union by creating opposing blocs and alliances to isolate China.

As the military power gap narrows each year, the United States will be less able to rely on intervention to defend territory, manage a dangerous escalation, and deter China, the importance of ensuring that U.S. allies and partners in the region can confront Beijing militarily. Washington will have to provide guarantees to allies and partners, while encouraging them to make greater multilateral efforts to defend its hegemony in the Asian territorial area. The United States will pursue a multidimensional strategy of diplomatic engagement with China while countering the expansion of Chinese power across China's neighbors.
suckers!
 

SinoaTerrenum

New Member
Registered Member
Japan & Korea are on a completely different level of sophistication compared to Saudi Arabia. Saudi state is essentially a house of cards with most citizens not well educated and living off state subsidies from oil money. Japan & Korea are true nation states with strong identity, highly well educated population, technology and strong national politics. Saudi Arabia is tiny in population with more than 70% of people being migrant workers from poor countries, they r not even saudi citizens and will never be.

US can probably easily foment a rebellion in Saudi Arabia against the monarchy. But in Japan & Korea, if there foreign policy changes in terms of US China policy, it will be fundamental change in people's thinking. No propaganda will change that. Moreover, Korea and Japan have a very insulated society with their own media in their very own languages, US have zero influence on that.

Any country with reasonable level of GDP per capita and population size will be complete impervious to US or any western influence operations. If there are changes in foreign policy in those countries, it will be because the population or the elites or both have changed their minds.

If Korea or Japan ever becomes pro-China, it will be a fundamental change in the mindset of the people in those countries. I would say, Korea and Japanese identity itself might be formed from being anti-China. It will take years of slow change in their economy, foreign interaction and so on to change their outlook. Or it could change due to a massive war where China dominates or conquers them outright. Anyways, it will not be easy that's for sure.
You grossly overestimate the independent thinking of the JP/KR masses, especially with a non-independent media. Soft needs to absolutely backed by hard power that's deployed - China arguably has the industrial hard power of a pre-WW2 US but until it goes into full war mode countries who drank 50 years of kool-aid aren't going to acknowledge that hard power. War is inevitable, just depends on what form.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Xi Jinping claimed US wants China to attack Taiwan
Chinese president told European Commission president that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into war


ft.com/content/7d6ca06c-d098-4a48-818e-112b97a9497a

China’s President Xi Jinping told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Chinese leader has also delivered the warning to domestic officials in his own country, one person said.

Xi issued the warning in a meeting with von der Leyen in April 2023 that was described to the Financial Times by several people. He said the US was trying to trick China into invading Taiwan, but that he would not take the bait. Another person said he had issued similar warnings to his officials.

The comments provide a window into Xi’s thinking on Taiwan — the most thorny issue in US-China relations.
Some Chinese academics and retired military officers have claimed that Washington is trying to provoke Beijing by providing weapons to Taiwan and pushing other measures to lure China into military confrontation.

Speaking at the Asia Society in January, Cui Tiankai, a former Chinese ambassador to Washington, said China would “not fall into the trap somebody may be preparing for us”, in a veiled reference to the US.

Xi’s remark to von der Leyen is the first known case of him making the claim to a foreign leader. Xi also said that a conflict with the US would destroy many of China’s achievements and undermine his goal of achieving a “great rejuvenation” by 2049.

“If Xi genuinely believes that the US actively seeks conflict with China over Taiwan, then concerns that Xi has created an information vacuum or is otherwise getting poor council from subordinates are, worryingly, true,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at CSIS, a think-tank.

The revelation comes after tensions rose across the Taiwan Strait. China responded to May’s inauguration of Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s new president with major military exercises around the island. Beijing has described Lai as a “dangerous separatist”.
Washington has an obligation to help Taiwan provide for its own defence under the Taiwan Relations Act. But the Biden administration has long stressed that it does not support Taiwanese independence and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo.

Chinese anxiety over US intentions has grown in recent years, while US concerns about assertive Chinese military activity around Taiwan have risen.

One Chinese academic said Washington was “actively encouraging independence forces in Taiwan” and the US knew that if they crossed a red line by declaring independence, China would be forced to take military action.

Blanchette said one possible explanation for Xi’s comment was that some subordinates were trying to steer him away from more aggressive policies.

“Whatever the explanation for Xi’s comments, it’s clear that the decision-making environment — and the information feeding into it — is being warped, either by Xi’s lieutenants, or by his own autocratic behaviour,” Blanchette said.

Bonnie Glaser, a German Marshall Fund China expert, said the comment may have been part of China’s attempt to pull Europe away from the US on the Taiwan issue, but is was also possible that Xi believed it.

The Chinese embassy in Washington did not comment on Xi’s remark, but said the US was selling weapons to Taiwan and backing “independence separatist forces”.

Von der Leyen’s spokesperson said she did not disclose details about private meetings. The White House did not comment.

Additional reporting by Henry Foy in Brussels
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Xi Jinping claimed US wants China to attack Taiwan
Chinese president told European Commission president that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into war


ft.com/content/7d6ca06c-d098-4a48-818e-112b97a9497a

China’s President Xi Jinping told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Chinese leader has also delivered the warning to domestic officials in his own country, one person said.

Xi issued the warning in a meeting with von der Leyen in April 2023 that was described to the Financial Times by several people. He said the US was trying to trick China into invading Taiwan, but that he would not take the bait. Another person said he had issued similar warnings to his officials.

The comments provide a window into Xi’s thinking on Taiwan — the most thorny issue in US-China relations.
Some Chinese academics and retired military officers have claimed that Washington is trying to provoke Beijing by providing weapons to Taiwan and pushing other measures to lure China into military confrontation.

Speaking at the Asia Society in January, Cui Tiankai, a former Chinese ambassador to Washington, said China would “not fall into the trap somebody may be preparing for us”, in a veiled reference to the US.

Xi’s remark to von der Leyen is the first known case of him making the claim to a foreign leader. Xi also said that a conflict with the US would destroy many of China’s achievements and undermine his goal of achieving a “great rejuvenation” by 2049.

“If Xi genuinely believes that the US actively seeks conflict with China over Taiwan, then concerns that Xi has created an information vacuum or is otherwise getting poor council from subordinates are, worryingly, true,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at CSIS, a think-tank.

The revelation comes after tensions rose across the Taiwan Strait. China responded to May’s inauguration of Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s new president with major military exercises around the island. Beijing has described Lai as a “dangerous separatist”.
Washington has an obligation to help Taiwan provide for its own defence under the Taiwan Relations Act. But the Biden administration has long stressed that it does not support Taiwanese independence and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo.

Chinese anxiety over US intentions has grown in recent years, while US concerns about assertive Chinese military activity around Taiwan have risen.

One Chinese academic said Washington was “actively encouraging independence forces in Taiwan” and the US knew that if they crossed a red line by declaring independence, China would be forced to take military action.

Blanchette said one possible explanation for Xi’s comment was that some subordinates were trying to steer him away from more aggressive policies.

“Whatever the explanation for Xi’s comments, it’s clear that the decision-making environment — and the information feeding into it — is being warped, either by Xi’s lieutenants, or by his own autocratic behaviour,” Blanchette said.

Bonnie Glaser, a German Marshall Fund China expert, said the comment may have been part of China’s attempt to pull Europe away from the US on the Taiwan issue, but is was also possible that Xi believed it.

The Chinese embassy in Washington did not comment on Xi’s remark, but said the US was selling weapons to Taiwan and backing “independence separatist forces”.

Von der Leyen’s spokesperson said she did not disclose details about private meetings. The White House did not comment.

Additional reporting by Henry Foy in Brussels

Truly ROFL at the comments by the DC China-hawk blobs and so-called "Chyna expArts". They are the actual ones who're living in the "Chyna Bad No Matter What!" echo chamber.

Beijing has actually been very patient with whatever shenanigans that the US&LC is throwing at them vis-a-vis not just Taiwan, but also the SCS maritime disputes and the Sino-Indian border disputes.

This is the absolute characteristic of the Chinese leadership that must be respected.

In fact, China's level of patience is actually way beyond our expectations when she was in a much weaker state (even with the 1950s Korean War, 1962 Sino-Indian War, 1969 Sino-Soviet War, 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War happening). Hence, considering that China's combined national prowess is actually much stronger and powerful than ever before - It is actually much more imperative than ever that China must have even greater degree of patience with perseverance and fortitude.

"Let China sleep, for when she awakes, the world will tremble."

If anything - Only when all the requirements are met, and only when no other alternatives are available - Shall China MUST make the world TRULY tremble.
 

Chevalier

Senior Member
Registered Member
Xi Jinping claimed US wants China to attack Taiwan
Chinese president told European Commission president that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into war


ft.com/content/7d6ca06c-d098-4a48-818e-112b97a9497a

China’s President Xi Jinping told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Chinese leader has also delivered the warning to domestic officials in his own country, one person said.

Xi issued the warning in a meeting with von der Leyen in April 2023 that was described to the Financial Times by several people. He said the US was trying to trick China into invading Taiwan, but that he would not take the bait. Another person said he had issued similar warnings to his officials.

The comments provide a window into Xi’s thinking on Taiwan — the most thorny issue in US-China relations.
Some Chinese academics and retired military officers have claimed that Washington is trying to provoke Beijing by providing weapons to Taiwan and pushing other measures to lure China into military confrontation.

Speaking at the Asia Society in January, Cui Tiankai, a former Chinese ambassador to Washington, said China would “not fall into the trap somebody may be preparing for us”, in a veiled reference to the US.

Xi’s remark to von der Leyen is the first known case of him making the claim to a foreign leader. Xi also said that a conflict with the US would destroy many of China’s achievements and undermine his goal of achieving a “great rejuvenation” by 2049.

“If Xi genuinely believes that the US actively seeks conflict with China over Taiwan, then concerns that Xi has created an information vacuum or is otherwise getting poor council from subordinates are, worryingly, true,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at CSIS, a think-tank.

The revelation comes after tensions rose across the Taiwan Strait. China responded to May’s inauguration of Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s new president with major military exercises around the island. Beijing has described Lai as a “dangerous separatist”.
Washington has an obligation to help Taiwan provide for its own defence under the Taiwan Relations Act. But the Biden administration has long stressed that it does not support Taiwanese independence and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo.

Chinese anxiety over US intentions has grown in recent years, while US concerns about assertive Chinese military activity around Taiwan have risen.

One Chinese academic said Washington was “actively encouraging independence forces in Taiwan” and the US knew that if they crossed a red line by declaring independence, China would be forced to take military action.

Blanchette said one possible explanation for Xi’s comment was that some subordinates were trying to steer him away from more aggressive policies.

“Whatever the explanation for Xi’s comments, it’s clear that the decision-making environment — and the information feeding into it — is being warped, either by Xi’s lieutenants, or by his own autocratic behaviour,” Blanchette said.

Bonnie Glaser, a German Marshall Fund China expert, said the comment may have been part of China’s attempt to pull Europe away from the US on the Taiwan issue, but is was also possible that Xi believed it.

The Chinese embassy in Washington did not comment on Xi’s remark, but said the US was selling weapons to Taiwan and backing “independence separatist forces”.

Von der Leyen’s spokesperson said she did not disclose details about private meetings. The White House did not comment.

Additional reporting by Henry Foy in Brussels
In light of this, the comments by Kurt Campbell appear to be a delaying tactic for the US to recalibrate its resources since it just sent billions to Ukraine and needs time to re-arm for the Pacific conflict.
 

Index

Junior Member
Registered Member
Xi Jinping claimed US wants China to attack Taiwan
Chinese president told European Commission president that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into war


ft.com/content/7d6ca06c-d098-4a48-818e-112b97a9497a

China’s President Xi Jinping told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Chinese leader has also delivered the warning to domestic officials in his own country, one person said.

Xi issued the warning in a meeting with von der Leyen in April 2023 that was described to the Financial Times by several people. He said the US was trying to trick China into invading Taiwan, but that he would not take the bait. Another person said he had issued similar warnings to his officials.

The comments provide a window into Xi’s thinking on Taiwan — the most thorny issue in US-China relations.
Some Chinese academics and retired military officers have claimed that Washington is trying to provoke Beijing by providing weapons to Taiwan and pushing other measures to lure China into military confrontation.

Speaking at the Asia Society in January, Cui Tiankai, a former Chinese ambassador to Washington, said China would “not fall into the trap somebody may be preparing for us”, in a veiled reference to the US.

Xi’s remark to von der Leyen is the first known case of him making the claim to a foreign leader. Xi also said that a conflict with the US would destroy many of China’s achievements and undermine his goal of achieving a “great rejuvenation” by 2049.

“If Xi genuinely believes that the US actively seeks conflict with China over Taiwan, then concerns that Xi has created an information vacuum or is otherwise getting poor council from subordinates are, worryingly, true,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at CSIS, a think-tank.

The revelation comes after tensions rose across the Taiwan Strait. China responded to May’s inauguration of Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s new president with major military exercises around the island. Beijing has described Lai as a “dangerous separatist”.
Washington has an obligation to help Taiwan provide for its own defence under the Taiwan Relations Act. But the Biden administration has long stressed that it does not support Taiwanese independence and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo.

Chinese anxiety over US intentions has grown in recent years, while US concerns about assertive Chinese military activity around Taiwan have risen.

One Chinese academic said Washington was “actively encouraging independence forces in Taiwan” and the US knew that if they crossed a red line by declaring independence, China would be forced to take military action.

Blanchette said one possible explanation for Xi’s comment was that some subordinates were trying to steer him away from more aggressive policies.

“Whatever the explanation for Xi’s comments, it’s clear that the decision-making environment — and the information feeding into it — is being warped, either by Xi’s lieutenants, or by his own autocratic behaviour,” Blanchette said.

Bonnie Glaser, a German Marshall Fund China expert, said the comment may have been part of China’s attempt to pull Europe away from the US on the Taiwan issue, but is was also possible that Xi believed it.

The Chinese embassy in Washington did not comment on Xi’s remark, but said the US was selling weapons to Taiwan and backing “independence separatist forces”.

Von der Leyen’s spokesperson said she did not disclose details about private meetings. The White House did not comment.

Additional reporting by Henry Foy in Brussels
When Lavrov visits a region of Ukraine that wants to leave, promising weapons and assistance, then Zelensky was right to suspect something will happen awhile later. So why would Xi not be suspect something will happen later when Pelosi visits a region of China that wants to leave, promising weapons and assistance?

Though Xi is smart and well informed enough that this is just political theater to judge EU leader reactions. Xi knows America does not have the necessary power to truly contemplate a full scale invasion of China.
 

Diletank

New Member
Registered Member
When Lavrov visits a region of Ukraine that wants to leave, promising weapons and assistance, then Zelensky was right to suspect something will happen awhile later. So why would Xi not be suspect something will happen later when Pelosi visits a region of China that wants to leave, promising weapons and assistance?

Though Xi is smart and well informed enough that this is just political theater to judge EU leader reactions. Xi knows America does not have the necessary power to truly contemplate a full scale invasion of China.
When did Lavrov visit a region of Ukraine that wants to leave it, promising weapons and assistance? And after that Zelensky saw the light?
 

pevade

Junior Member
Registered Member
Another analysis offered from yet again American perspective but with a more nuanced approach. What's the rebuttal from you guys and what's your take on this?


A long winded passage filled with fancy words of that are ultimately some opinions dressed up as "research" that is based on what are at best, guesses. As the saying goes: garbage in, garbage out. Not to mention, outright war is one of the many possible options China has.
 
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