PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

tamsen_ikard

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Blitzo

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Allegedly infrared tracking of PLA H-6 and J-16 by ROCAF aircraft. Is this via IRST from a f-16? Seems escalatory as it could be misinterpreted as a lock.

As expected, the comments are... Interesting.

F-16 doesn't have IRST, Is it from the view of a short range missile like AIM-9? It could also be from a targetting pod as well.

It's just tracking from a Sniper Pod, which is typically used for surveiling ground targets but also can be used for tracking aerial targets.

Sniper Pods are of course used across a number of platforms around the world, in this case for the ROCAF it would be fitted aboard their F-16s.


It's not particularly a big deal.

This entire exercise and the actions of both sides are just political theater.
 

siegecrossbow

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Allegedly infrared tracking of PLA H-6 and J-16 by ROCAF aircraft. Is this via IRST from a f-16? Seems escalatory as it could be misinterpreted as a lock.

As expected, the comments are... Interesting.

Since it is done via sniper pod, which is passive IR detection I don’t see how it could be construed as a lock unless the F-16 in question was at six’o clock of the H-6 or J-16, which doesn’t appear to be the case here.
 

Wrought

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This entire exercise and the actions of both sides are just political theater.

Really? I was under the impression that the PLA was using these exercises (and previous ones) as a means of testing interservice communication and/or coordination at scale. That while there is obviously a political aspect to it, the practical military training was the more important part.
 

Blitzo

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Really? I was under the impression that the PLA was using these exercises (and previous ones) as a means of testing interservice communication and/or coordination at scale. That while there is obviously a political aspect to it, the practical military training was the more important part.

You really don't need this political theater and media exposure to do that kind of training.

I won't say that this exercise provides zero training benefit, but it is basically just political theater in the sense that the training benefits could be done in a heap of other methods without this exposure over it.
 

Wrought

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You really don't need this political theater and media exposure to do that kind of training.

I won't say that this exercise provides zero training benefit, but it is basically just political theater in the sense that the training benefits could be done in a heap of other methods without this exposure over it.

Just looking at a map I don't really see any politically "safe" areas to conduct large-scale training with land/naval/air assets. Go north and you're closer to Korea/Japan, go south and you're closer to the Philippines. All of whom have their own reasons to be nervous about these sort of operations.

It's obviously not a coincidence they are choosing Taiwan now of all times, but I do think the training is ultimately necessary and now is a good a time as any in the military sense. And surely a training environment which is accurate in all geographic/topographical/etc aspects to the real thing—because it's literally the same place—is a bonus. I mean, if you need to conduct major exercises in a politically sensitive area anyways, you might as well do it when you have a convenient political excuse.
 
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Blitzo

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Just looking at a map I don't really see any politically "safe" areas to conduct large-scale training with land/naval/air assets. Go north and you're closer to Korea/Japan, go south and you're closer to the Philippines. All of whom have their own reasons to be nervous about these sort of operations.

It's obviously not a coincidence they are choosing Taiwan now of all times, but I do think the training is ultimately necessary and now is a good a time as any in the military sense. And surely a training environment which is accurate in all geographic/topographical/etc aspects to the real thing—because it's literally the same place—is a bonus. I mean, if you need to conduct major exercises in a politically sensitive area anyways, you might as well do it when you have a convenient political excuse.

I never made any remarks about "safe" areas to conduct large scale joint exercises, and the areas of this exercise around Taiwan is no more or less safe than other areas in the region.

What I am saying is that there is nothing about these exercises at this stage which indicate particular complexity or scale that is outside of what the PLA should be able to usually do, and the only reason this seems to be impressive is because they're choosing to showcase parts of it via media.


Flying a few dozen sorties around Taiwan in close proximity to the island itself is fine, and coordinating with a couple dozen ships doing the same, sure fine.


Far more interesting is actual large scale theater exercises with hundreds of sorties a day in conjunction with rocket forces and naval forces, much of which we would not see being done outside of Chinese airspace or relatively close to Chinese waters, respectively, all with much less media fanfare.
These exercises are comparatively child's play compared to what we know and suspect they do for training.
 
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