PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
coolgod said:

Yes, Japan Will Defend Taiwan​

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For Japan, peace in the Taiwan Strait is a matter of national survival. A proper discussion of Japanese intervention should thus ask “how” not “if.”







Japan defending Taiwan is what's known as Win-Win-Win-Win-Win-Win cooperation.

The US gets more cannon fodder against China
China gets to settle old debts
Japan gets to overthrow their white masters
Taiwan gets noticed by its senpai
South Korea gets to see Japan take a beating
North Korea gets revenge on Japan

Is there even a loser in this? ;)
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"Yes, Japan will Defend Taiwan," by Ryan C. Bercaw

Next article, "Yes, China would Love to follow America's International Order," by Chad Whitman Smith

Part 3: "Yes, America will Voluntarily give half of its GDP to Japan every year for the next Century for the Atrocities committed at Hiroshima and Nagasaki," by Hiroyoshi Takeyama

And the series finale, "Yes, the US Government has recognized its mistakes and will Gladly return all lands to the Native Americans," by Flying Horse Shitting Crow
 
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Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Sinnavuuty said:
View attachment 130002
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Taiwan deployed launchers with Hsiung Feng II (HF-2) and Hsiung Feng III (HF-3) anti-ship missiles in response to the PLA Joint Sword 2024 exercise in Kenting National Park in Pingtung County.
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The Taiwanese MoD as part of the Joint Sword 2024A exercise reported that a total of 49 aircraft were observed, of which 35 crossed the so-called “median line” in the Taiwan Strait. By aircraft type, Su-30, J-16 and KJ-500 AWACS were observed.

And this:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1793459286842257422
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1793508406025974195
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The got those mobile HF-3 rolling on those silly civilian trucks and it took them something like 7-8 hours between start of the exercise and that HF-3 battery in position and ready to fire. If this was real AR that very obvious convoy would be dead multiple times over.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Major
Registered Member
Temstar said:
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The got those mobile HF-3 rolling on those silly civilian trucks and it took them something like 7-8 hours between start of the exercise and that HF-3 battery in position and ready to fire. If this was real AR that very obvious convoy would be dead multiple times over.
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Doesn't that mean the ROC soldiers are doing their jobs properly? No one wants to die first, much better to wait for the surrender signal safely in their bunkers.
 
GZDRefugee

GZDRefugee

Junior Member
Registered Member
Temstar said:
They're probably alright. Being domestic they can be produced in number unlike patriot so should not be discounted.

As we saw with recent ATACMS attack on Russian S400 with sufficient number of ballistic missiles any AD can be overwhelmed. So question is does AFU have more HIMARS for PLAGF with PCL-191.
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Speaking of AD, what are Taiwan's capabilities in that field and how much have they stockpiled? AShM are great and all but they aren't gonna matter if SAM run out and then C4ISR infrastructure are destroyed. If Taiwan loses the air contest, they lose any chance of fending off the PLA.

EDIT: I remember a post/comment by patch on LCD but since all their content was nuked, I can't find it no more.
 
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Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
GZDRefugee said:
Speaking of AD, what are Taiwan's capabilities in that field and how much have they stockpiled? AShM are great and all but they aren't gonna matter if SAM run out and then C4ISR infrastructure are destroyed. If Taiwan loses the air contest, they lose any chance of fending off the PLA.
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I think you'll have to characterise Taiwan's AD as formidable, this is one area they actually take very seriously. All signs indicate they will replace fully all the previous MIM-23 Hawk positions with Sky Bow, so that's a lot.

On the other hand PLA has given a lot of thought into how to take those out too. For example PLA's clone of IAI Harpy was always considered an anti-radiation weapon and the long loitering time is for them to circle over areas where AD may be to either bait them out or keep them suppressed. The way Russians are using Shahed 131, as long range cheap GPS guided cruise missile came as a surprise and considered "wrong".
 
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