Bro as a resident in the region, all we want is a peaceful neighborhood, Period! We don't want to choose side and even tiny Singapore who is a hostage of the US had the courage to say so. The US is trying hard to appease us BUT with $15 million that is an insult, so China won the American lost. The crucial element is the Philippine, without us the strategy of containment will move to the 2nd Island chain with Guam as a fulcrum. So how about SK and Japan? will they stay true as a pillar of American strategy? The fact is the history in that region they never saw China as a threat cause the Chinese never invaded them, when they went in to help and they never overstay their welcome and return home. So what about Taiwan will SK and Japan intervene, if China sink an Aircraft Carrier they will declare their neutrality ASAP, they don't want to be a frontline state. The American knew without them these 2 countries will be at war with each other the so called Strategic Pillar stand in shaky ground.
My opinion after 6 years of Duterte, the flashpoint have move to Taiwan, everybody in ASEAN believes in diplomacy as they knew the new Philippine gov't will stay the course. Lets be honest most of the leaders in ASEAN lack the strength of Character to say NO to America, the reason for Duterte popularity in the region, he can Voice the region concern vigorously without fear of repercussion.
And the Taiwanese are not stupid, even the Virgin Heroine is having second thought, this Ukraine War is an eye opener for most country in the region, the American pledges and promises hold NO strategic value, BUT uncertainty and destruction.
I am also from ASEAN.
Of course, I can confidently say that - For the ASEAN region, apart from the few extreme ones who would like to see the world burn as long as they can achieve their objectives, most of us would like to preserve the current status quo as it is. Or at least, change the status quo into something more fair and better for everyone without having to resort to killing anyone.
In retrospect, there are only two
powers in the Western Pacific region that could significantly alter this status quo -
China and the
United States.
And what
events would cause the significant alteration of this status quo (i.e. flashpoints)?
Conflicts over Taiwan,
conflicts over Diaoyu, and
conflicts in the South China Sea.
But just as you said, the flashpoint has squarely moved over to Taiwan. And as mentioned above, maintaining the current China-Taiwan status quo is the vital for maintaining the status quo across Western Pacific.
All of us agree that Taiwan separating from China through formal independence and/or hosting foreign troops would be a red line that Beijing would never tolerate if crossed. And who is the main driving power that supports and fans the flames so that Taiwan's can inch closer to China's red lines? The United States.
Which relates to my next point: It has been more than 70 years since the People's Republic of China is formed. And Beijing has been patiently waiting for Taiwan to reunify with the motherland.
70 years is a long ass time to wait. Would it be too long to wait another 20 years? In the pragmatic eyes of China, not really.
China has
ample amounts of both
time and
patience on the Taiwan issue. In fact, China can just sit around and grind her own axe while watching the US-led Lackey Inc. deconstruct themselves over some superficial "woke humanity values bla bla bla". That means unless the status quo and red line is being violated, China would prefer to allocate more of her focus on the economy and wellbeing of her own citizens than the military.
However, the same cannot be said about
that certain island towards the southeast, and
that certain superpower across the ocean.
Just take a look at the series of actions and behavior taken by Taipei under
Vegetable English, and Washington DC under the
oligarch-media-military industrial compl- Oops, I mean, the
Orange Man and
Sleepy Brandon over the past years, and you understand that they are itching for a conflict, so that China can be dragged down to mud and the US-led Lackeys Inc. stay clean and clear (despite they clearly aren't).
In fact,
Taipei and
Washington DC are what the world should be worry about,
NOT Beijing.
Back to the first point: What I mentioned about the various scenarios that could play out regarding China-ASEAN affairs due to the conflict on Taiwan is a response to
@Overbom's post #38199.
Do I really think that ASEAN should just throw themselves completely into China's or US' embrace? Not really.
IMO, it's fine for ASEAN to be included and integrated into China's sphere of influence, considering that China-ASEAN relations date back for more than two thousand years. China is also the natural neighbour of ASEAN, so you can't just run away even if you want to - China will always be the neighbour of ASEAN, whether you like it or not.
However, that does not mean ASEAN countries should just become dogs and lackeys to China. Becoming dogs and lackeys would be like how the EU and certain few countries in the Western Pacific have became today.