Possible. However imo this can only happen seriously when China enjoys overwhelming regional military superiority. When that happens, everyone will become obedient.
Until that becomes a reality, I don't expect any serious change on ASEAN's behaviour.
Totally agreed.
In fact, I see the reunification of Taiwan by China to be the
key deciding factor in determining the sway of ASEAN behavior in the foreseeable future. It would be either
China's (and the rest of the Global South's) camp, or the
US-led Lackeys Inc.'s camp.
Of course, in case the military reunification of Taiwan is to be expected in any particular point in time in the near future, I hope that China has
conducted necessary preparatory works in order to
safeguard her flanks so that the
PLA could focus entirely on Taiwan.
For instance, China could hold
closed-door meetings with all ASEAN countries,
between the heads-of-state, or
the heads-of-government, or both. China could then
propose that:
1. The
security and safety of all ASEAN countries will be
guaranteed;
2.
Trade and economic relations between China and ASEAN would be
safeguarded and maintained as normal; and
3. ASEAN countries would have even
greater and lucrative development, growth, cooperation and intergration opportunities with China and the rest of the world through the
BRI;
etc.
These offerings should come with the
preconditions for ASEAN countries to:
1.
Stay strictly neutral;
2.
Stay out of the expected conflict regarding Taiwan; and
3.
Refrain from supporting the Taiwanese separatists in any method or form.
The best would be for all ASEAN countries to
reject any requests by
any foreign military forces to
dock and utilize the bases and facilities in these ASEAN countries. Such measures, if can be met, would be useful to prevent those bases and facilities from becoming
staging areas for the US-led Lackeys Inc. to launch counterattacks against China, should the US-led Lackeys Inc. decides to directly intervene.
I'm looking at you, Singapore.
Although, should military reunification of Taiwan becomes unavoidable, IMO, all ASEAN countries would most likely be sitting idly while watching the conflicts unfolding across the Taiwan Strait and the West Pacific attentively. Honestly, I don't think any ASEAN country would stupidly join the conflict against China, as long as they themselves aren't directly threatened.
Regarding how the
outcome of the reunification of Taiwan would result in
ASEAN's behavior towards China versus the US-led Lackeys Inc., here's my personal take, so please
take it with a pinch of salt.
(Here, direct intervention means directly involved in the conflict, i.e. participating in the war as an active belligerent. Supplying weapons and intelligence like what NATO is doing to Ukraine right now is not considered as a direct intervention.)
Scenario 1 - China successfully reunify and control Taiwan without any direct intervention from US-led Lackeys Inc.:
In general, ASEAN would
become pro-China to a certain degree, with
certain exceptions.
One; ASEAN countries that are
pro-China (i.e. Laos, Cambodia, Thailand) would most
certainly lean closer towards China, as they see that the chances of China-US conflict to increase, and that their safety could be endangered. Hence, China's security protection would be needed in case the US-led Lackeys Inc. attempted anything stupid with their home country.
Two; ASEAN countries that are
anti-China/pro-West (i.e. Vietnam and Philippines) would either:
#1 -
Choose to lean closer towards the US-led Lackeys Inc., because with Taiwan gone as a distration for China, they see their claims on the South China Sea becoming more vulnerable, as China is able to focus more on the South China Sea dispute. They are more likely to ask the US-led Lackeys Inc. to balance out China's prowess in the ASEAN region; or
#2 -
Become more neutral with maybe slight pro-China tint, seeing that China has become even more powerful in the Western Pacific, and with the US-led Lackeys Co. unwilling to protect and defend Taiwan, what chances would the US-led Lackeys Co. come to their aid, in case they got into conlfict with China?
Three; ASEAN countries that are
more neutral (i.e. Malaysia, Brunei) would
become somewhat closer to China in order to get on China's good side for more benefit-reaping. Being cautiously at that, however, shall I add.
Scenario 2 - China failed to reunify and control Taiwan without any direct intervention from the US-led Lackeys Inc.:
Except ASEAN countries that are pro-China, ASEAN as a whole would be
more likely and ready to embrace the US-led Lackeys Inc. and
be more vocal and adamant in the South China Sea issue.
Considerable amount of respect and trust for China from ASEAN would be shaken.
This is mainly because if China couldn't beat Taiwan that is already on their own, what makes China to even have the reason and face to deal with ASEAN countries regarding the South China Sea dispute?
This is especially when the US-led Lackeys Inc.
isn't seriously affected, which means they can certainly better pursuade ASEAN countries to
turn their backs on China, alongside piling on more pressure against China in order to weaken her further.
Scenario 3 - China successfully reunify and control Taiwan, and managed to beat back the US-led Lackeys Inc.'s direct intervention:
This would be the
absolute best scenario for China in ASEAN.
China managed to beat back US-led Lackeys Inc. can only mean one thing -
China's position as the sole dominant superpower in the Western Pacific region has become
truly undisputed.
One; ASEAN countries that are
pro-China would definitely
throw themselves into China's arms. No explanations needed
Two; ASEAN countries that are
anti-China/pro-West would either:
#1 - Have to
become more relenting in their dealings with China; or
#2 - Have no choice but to
accept the reality that neither the US, nor her lackeys can ever help them in case they got into conflict with China.
In both cases, these anti-China/pro-West ASEAN countries would
have to become more friendly to China, albeit reluctantly. Because if otherwise, what else can they even secure? China can just whip their arse in case they want to try to do anything funny with China.
Three; ASEAN countries that are
more neutral would
become more friendly to China, rather than otherwise.
Scenario 4 - China failed to reunify and control Taiwan, and got beaten back by the direct intervention from the US-led Lackeys Inc.:
This would be the
absolute worst scenario for China in ASEAN.
With China throughoutly weakened and wasted, ASEAN countries that have conflicting claims with China in the South China Sea would become even more
daring and assertive. The whole of ASEAN would
throw themselves into the arms of the US-led Lackeys Inc, considering that China's status as a prominent superpower in the Western Pacific is gone, and the US-led Lackeys Inc. would have their back in case of any conflicts with China.
It would be very hard for China to regain respect and trust from ASEAN from that point onwards. Basically speaking,
game over.
So there's my take. And I believe that:
1. The analysts and decision makers in the Chinese government and the PLA would have seriously considered my above points too; and
2. The above responses of ASEAN on China's military reunification of Taiwan can also be, simply put, applied for the rest of the Global South.
In short, I believe that for the future of humanity to be secured and shielded by neo-imperialism and neo-colonialism of the US-led Lackeys Inc., China must
WIN in this Taiwan conflict.
AND, China must make that win over Taiwan and the US-led Lackeys Inc. an
ABSOLUTE VICTORY.
China only has
ONE SHOT at this.
Make it count, China.
ASEAN, and the rest of the Global South, rest their eyes on you.
(Sorry for the long mumble-jumble)
