Miscellaneous News

[FriedButter]

It honestly doesn't deserve attention though, the PLA losing against ROC forces in a 1v1.

Cuz it's such an unlikely scenario and chance of happening, and if it did happen, then China has some FAR MORE pressing problems than just the attitude of ASEAN and other countries.

ROC will win a 1v1… in the social media war. Millions of CCP bot will be destroyed on the beaches by continuous machi- ban hamming. Then they will revert back to reality and see that their virtual world isn’t the real world like Armenia and Ukraine.

 

[ansy1968]

Totally agreed.

In fact, I see the reunification of Taiwan by China to be the key deciding factor in determining the sway of ASEAN behavior in the foreseeable future. It would be either China's (and the rest of the Global South's) camp, or the US-led Lackeys Inc.'s camp.

Of course, in case the military reunification of Taiwan is to be expected in any particular point in time in the near future, I hope that China has conducted necessary preparatory works in order to safeguard her flanks so that the PLA could focus entirely on Taiwan.

For instance, China could hold closed-door meetings with all ASEAN countries, between the heads-of-state, or the heads-of-government, or both. China could then propose that:

1. The security and safety of all ASEAN countries will be guaranteed;
2. Trade and economic relations between China and ASEAN would be safeguarded and maintained as normal; and
3. ASEAN countries would have even greater and lucrative development, growth, cooperation and intergration opportunities with China and the rest of the world through the BRI;
etc.

These offerings should come with the preconditions for ASEAN countries to:

1. Stay strictly neutral;
2. Stay out of the expected conflict regarding Taiwan; and
3. Refrain from supporting the Taiwanese separatists in any method or form.

The best would be for all ASEAN countries to reject any requests by any foreign military forces to dock and utilize the bases and facilities in these ASEAN countries. Such measures, if can be met, would be useful to prevent those bases and facilities from becoming staging areas for the US-led Lackeys Inc. to launch counterattacks against China, should the US-led Lackeys Inc. decides to directly intervene.

I'm looking at you, Singapore.

Although, should military reunification of Taiwan becomes unavoidable, IMO, all ASEAN countries would most likely be sitting idly while watching the conflicts unfolding across the Taiwan Strait and the West Pacific attentively. Honestly, I don't think any ASEAN country would stupidly join the conflict against China, as long as they themselves aren't directly threatened.

Regarding how the outcome of the reunification of Taiwan would result in ASEAN's behavior towards China versus the US-led Lackeys Inc., here's my personal take, so please take it with a pinch of salt.

(Here, direct intervention means directly involved in the conflict, i.e. participating in the war as an active belligerent. Supplying weapons and intelligence like what NATO is doing to Ukraine right now is not considered as a direct intervention.)

Scenario 1 - China successfully reunify and control Taiwan without any direct intervention from US-led Lackeys Inc.:
In general, ASEAN would become pro-China to a certain degree, with certain exceptions.
One; ASEAN countries that are pro-China (i.e. Laos, Cambodia, Thailand) would most certainly lean closer towards China, as they see that the chances of China-US conflict to increase, and that their safety could be endangered. Hence, China's security protection would be needed in case the US-led Lackeys Inc. attempted anything stupid with their home country.
Two; ASEAN countries that are anti-China/pro-West (i.e. Vietnam and Philippines) would either:
#1 - Choose to lean closer towards the US-led Lackeys Inc., because with Taiwan gone as a distration for China, they see their claims on the South China Sea becoming more vulnerable, as China is able to focus more on the South China Sea dispute. They are more likely to ask the US-led Lackeys Inc. to balance out China's prowess in the ASEAN region; or
#2 - Become more neutral with maybe slight pro-China tint, seeing that China has become even more powerful in the Western Pacific, and with the US-led Lackeys Co. unwilling to protect and defend Taiwan, what chances would the US-led Lackeys Co. come to their aid, in case they got into conlfict with China?
Three; ASEAN countries that are more neutral (i.e. Malaysia, Brunei) would become somewhat closer to China in order to get on China's good side for more benefit-reaping. Being cautiously at that, however, shall I add.

Scenario 2 - China failed to reunify and control Taiwan without any direct intervention from the US-led Lackeys Inc.:
Except ASEAN countries that are pro-China, ASEAN as a whole would be more likely and ready to embrace the US-led Lackeys Inc. and be more vocal and adamant in the South China Sea issue. Considerable amount of respect and trust for China from ASEAN would be shaken.
This is mainly because if China couldn't beat Taiwan that is already on their own, what makes China to even have the reason and face to deal with ASEAN countries regarding the South China Sea dispute?
This is especially when the US-led Lackeys Inc. isn't seriously affected, which means they can certainly better pursuade ASEAN countries to turn their backs on China, alongside piling on more pressure against China in order to weaken her further.

Scenario 3 - China successfully reunify and control Taiwan, and managed to beat back the US-led Lackeys Inc.'s direct intervention:
This would be the absolute best scenario for China in ASEAN.
China managed to beat back US-led Lackeys Inc. can only mean one thing - China's position as the sole dominant superpower in the Western Pacific region has become truly undisputed.
One; ASEAN countries that are pro-China would definitely throw themselves into China's arms. No explanations needed
Two; ASEAN countries that are anti-China/pro-West would either:
#1 - Have to become more relenting in their dealings with China; or
#2 - Have no choice but to accept the reality that neither the US, nor her lackeys can ever help them in case they got into conflict with China.
In both cases, these anti-China/pro-West ASEAN countries would have to become more friendly to China, albeit reluctantly. Because if otherwise, what else can they even secure? China can just whip their arse in case they want to try to do anything funny with China.
Three; ASEAN countries that are more neutral would become more friendly to China, rather than otherwise.

Scenario 4 - China failed to reunify and control Taiwan, and got beaten back by the direct intervention from the US-led Lackeys Inc.:
This would be the absolute worst scenario for China in ASEAN.
With China throughoutly weakened and wasted, ASEAN countries that have conflicting claims with China in the South China Sea would become even more daring and assertive. The whole of ASEAN would throw themselves into the arms of the US-led Lackeys Inc, considering that China's status as a prominent superpower in the Western Pacific is gone, and the US-led Lackeys Inc. would have their back in case of any conflicts with China.
It would be very hard for China to regain respect and trust from ASEAN from that point onwards. Basically speaking, game over.

So there's my take. And I believe that:
1. The analysts and decision makers in the Chinese government and the PLA would have seriously considered my above points too; and
2. The above responses of ASEAN on China's military reunification of Taiwan can also be, simply put, applied for the rest of the Global South.

In short, I believe that for the future of humanity to be secured and shielded by neo-imperialism and neo-colonialism of the US-led Lackeys Inc., China must WIN in this Taiwan conflict. AND, China must make that win over Taiwan and the US-led Lackeys Inc. an ABSOLUTE VICTORY.

China only has ONE SHOT at this. Make it count, China.

ASEAN, and the rest of the Global South, rest their eyes on you.

(Sorry for the long mumble-jumble)

Bro as a resident in the region, all we want is a peaceful neighborhood, Period! We don't want to choose side and even tiny Singapore who is a hostage of the US had the courage to say so. The US is trying hard to appease us BUT with $15 million that is an insult, so China won the American lost. The crucial element is the Philippine, without us the strategy of containment will move to the 2nd Island chain with Guam as a fulcrum. So how about SK and Japan? will they stay true as a pillar of American strategy? The fact is the history in that region they never saw China as a threat cause the Chinese never invaded them, when they went in to help and they never overstay their welcome and return home. So what about Taiwan will SK and Japan intervene, if China sink an Aircraft Carrier they will declare their neutrality ASAP, they don't want to be a frontline state. The American knew without them these 2 countries will be at war with each other the so called Strategic Pillar stand in shaky ground.

My opinion after 6 years of Duterte, the flashpoint have move to Taiwan, everybody in ASEAN believes in diplomacy as they knew the new Philippine gov't will stay the course. Lets be honest most of the leaders in ASEAN lack the strength of Character to say NO to America, the reason for Duterte popularity in the region, he can Voice the region concern vigorously without fear of repercussion.
And the Taiwanese are not stupid, even the Virgin Heroine is having second thought, this Ukraine War is an eye opener for most country in the region, the American pledges and promises hold NO strategic value, BUT uncertainty and destruction.

 

[Overbom]

Totally agreed.

In fact, I see the reunification of Taiwan by China to be the key deciding factor in determining the sway of ASEAN behavior in the foreseeable future. It would be either China's (and the rest of the Global South's) camp, or the US-led Lackeys Inc.'s camp.

Of course, in case the military reunification of Taiwan is to be expected in any particular point in time in the near future, I hope that China has conducted necessary preparatory works in order to safeguard her flanks so that the PLA could focus entirely on Taiwan.

For instance, China could hold closed-door meetings with all ASEAN countries, between the heads-of-state, or the heads-of-government, or both. China could then propose that:

1. The security and safety of all ASEAN countries will be guaranteed;
2. Trade and economic relations between China and ASEAN would be safeguarded and maintained as normal; and
3. ASEAN countries would have even greater and lucrative development, growth, cooperation and intergration opportunities with China and the rest of the world through the BRI;
etc.

These offerings should come with the preconditions for ASEAN countries to:

1. Stay strictly neutral;
2. Stay out of the expected conflict regarding Taiwan; and
3. Refrain from supporting the Taiwanese separatists in any method or form.

The best would be for all ASEAN countries to reject any requests by any foreign military forces to dock and utilize the bases and facilities in these ASEAN countries. Such measures, if can be met, would be useful to prevent those bases and facilities from becoming staging areas for the US-led Lackeys Inc. to launch counterattacks against China, should the US-led Lackeys Inc. decides to directly intervene.

I'm looking at you, Singapore.

Although, should military reunification of Taiwan becomes unavoidable, IMO, all ASEAN countries would most likely be sitting idly while watching the conflicts unfolding across the Taiwan Strait and the West Pacific attentively. Honestly, I don't think any ASEAN country would stupidly join the conflict against China, as long as they themselves aren't directly threatened.

Regarding how the outcome of the reunification of Taiwan would result in ASEAN's behavior towards China versus the US-led Lackeys Inc., here's my personal take, so please take it with a pinch of salt.

(Here, direct intervention means directly involved in the conflict, i.e. participating in the war as an active belligerent. Supplying weapons and intelligence like what NATO is doing to Ukraine right now is not considered as a direct intervention.)

Scenario 1 - China successfully reunify and control Taiwan without any direct intervention from US-led Lackeys Inc.:
In general, ASEAN would become pro-China to a certain degree, with certain exceptions.
One; ASEAN countries that are pro-China (i.e. Laos, Cambodia, Thailand) would most certainly lean closer towards China, as they see that the chances of China-US conflict to increase, and that their safety could be endangered. Hence, China's security protection would be needed in case the US-led Lackeys Inc. attempted anything stupid with their home country.
Two; ASEAN countries that are anti-China/pro-West (i.e. Vietnam and Philippines) would either:
#1 - Choose to lean closer towards the US-led Lackeys Inc., because with Taiwan gone as a distration for China, they see their claims on the South China Sea becoming more vulnerable, as China is able to focus more on the South China Sea dispute. They are more likely to ask the US-led Lackeys Inc. to balance out China's prowess in the ASEAN region; or
#2 - Become more neutral with maybe slight pro-China tint, seeing that China has become even more powerful in the Western Pacific, and with the US-led Lackeys Co. unwilling to protect and defend Taiwan, what chances would the US-led Lackeys Co. come to their aid, in case they got into conlfict with China?
Three; ASEAN countries that are more neutral (i.e. Malaysia, Brunei) would become somewhat closer to China in order to get on China's good side for more benefit-reaping. Being cautiously at that, however, shall I add.

Scenario 2 - China failed to reunify and control Taiwan without any direct intervention from the US-led Lackeys Inc.:
Except ASEAN countries that are pro-China, ASEAN as a whole would be more likely and ready to embrace the US-led Lackeys Inc. and be more vocal and adamant in the South China Sea issue. Considerable amount of respect and trust for China from ASEAN would be shaken.
This is mainly because if China couldn't beat Taiwan that is already on their own, what makes China to even have the reason and face to deal with ASEAN countries regarding the South China Sea dispute?
This is especially when the US-led Lackeys Inc. isn't seriously affected, which means they can certainly better pursuade ASEAN countries to turn their backs on China, alongside piling on more pressure against China in order to weaken her further.

Scenario 3 - China successfully reunify and control Taiwan, and managed to beat back the US-led Lackeys Inc.'s direct intervention:
This would be the absolute best scenario for China in ASEAN.
China managed to beat back US-led Lackeys Inc. can only mean one thing - China's position as the sole dominant superpower in the Western Pacific region has become truly undisputed.
One; ASEAN countries that are pro-China would definitely throw themselves into China's arms. No explanations needed
Two; ASEAN countries that are anti-China/pro-West would either:
#1 - Have to become more relenting in their dealings with China; or
#2 - Have no choice but to accept the reality that neither the US, nor her lackeys can ever help them in case they got into conflict with China.
In both cases, these anti-China/pro-West ASEAN countries would have to become more friendly to China, albeit reluctantly. Because if otherwise, what else can they even secure? China can just whip their arse in case they want to try to do anything funny with China.
Three; ASEAN countries that are more neutral would become more friendly to China, rather than otherwise.

Scenario 4 - China failed to reunify and control Taiwan, and got beaten back by the direct intervention from the US-led Lackeys Inc.:
This would be the absolute worst scenario for China in ASEAN.
With China throughoutly weakened and wasted, ASEAN countries that have conflicting claims with China in the South China Sea would become even more daring and assertive. The whole of ASEAN would throw themselves into the arms of the US-led Lackeys Inc, considering that China's status as a prominent superpower in the Western Pacific is gone, and the US-led Lackeys Inc. would have their back in case of any conflicts with China.
It would be very hard for China to regain respect and trust from ASEAN from that point onwards. Basically speaking, game over.

So there's my take. And I believe that:
1. The analysts and decision makers in the Chinese government and the PLA would have seriously considered my above points too; and
2. The above responses of ASEAN on China's military reunification of Taiwan can also be, simply put, applied for the rest of the Global South.

In short, I believe that for the future of humanity to be secured and shielded by neo-imperialism and neo-colonialism of the US-led Lackeys Inc., China must WIN in this Taiwan conflict. AND, China must make that win over Taiwan and the US-led Lackeys Inc. an ABSOLUTE VICTORY.

China only has ONE SHOT at this. Make it count, China.

ASEAN, and the rest of the Global South, rest their eyes on you.

(Sorry for the long mumble-jumble)

Its all about strength. The stronger China gets, the more desperate ASEAN will be to court other powers to balance it.

Its a self-strengthening cycle. The only way out of this loops is for China to become, at minimum, the undisputed regional hegemon.


Do you see African/Latin American countries trying to seriously balance the US? lol

Even the small moves that they do nowadays is because China has gotten stronger. But tell them to openly start seriously balancing out the US and you would get a big fat "NO!" from them. Nobody is suicidal enough to dare to start having thoughts about "balancing".

The only reason why ASEAN can do that is not because they have god-given powers but merely because they are so close to China that they automatically get negotiating chips when talking with the US.

Bet you this, if ASEAN was located in South America, the moment daddy US came and locked their door, they would do a Japanese-style slave bow and lick its boots.

It all depends on China's power. The stronger it gets, the further away its power radiates and encompasses more countries which allow these countries to start balancing out the US.

The stronger it gets, the more they (outside ASEAN) will balance out the US. We can already see this happening in real time with the Gulf countries in Middle East and increasingly in South America

 

[ansy1968]

Its all about strength. The stronger China gets, the more desperate ASEAN will be to court other powers to balance it.

Its a self-strengthening cycle. The only way out of this loops is for China to become, at minimum, the undisputed regional hegemon.


Do you see African/Latin American countries trying to seriously balance the US? lol

Even the small moves that they do nowadays is because China has gotten stronger. But tell them to openly start seriously balancing out the US and you would get a big fat "NO!" from them. Nobody is suicidal enough to dare to start having thoughts about "balancing" the Hegemon

The only reason why ASEAN can do that is not because they have god-given powers but merely because they are so close to China that they automatically get negotiating chips when talking with the US.

Bet you this, if ASEAN was located in South America, the moment daddy US came and locked their door, they would do a Japanese-style slave bow and lick its boots.

It all depends on China's power. The stronger it gets, the further away its power radiates and encompasses more countries which allow these countries to start balancing out the US.

The stronger it gets, the more they (outside ASEAN) will balance out the US. We can already see this happening in real time with the Gulf countries in Middle East

@Overbom Brother in our history, In ancient time we have experience living under Chinese hegemony and we prosper, all this balancing act is an American propaganda cause we never saw China as a threat. They see and judge China thru their owned western prism. Of course when the US and ASEAN leaders talk the topic is China, we use China as a bargaining chip to push our ECONOMIC agenda while the American push theirs. All in All it's just talk and with this current US administration nobody want to follow the Ukrainian example...lol

What I see with Brandon recent Taiwan gaffe is so damaging to US prestige. Instead of weakening China it had embolden her with us in the region being pull along. Neutrality is the current word being use as a foreign policy tool. Vietnam is silent and Singapore is starting to bark back...lol

 

[Coalescence]

@Overbom Brother in our history, In ancient time we have experience living under Chinese hegemony and we prosper, all this balancing act is an American propaganda cause we never saw China as a threat. They see and judge China thru their owned western prism. Of course when the US and ASEAN leaders talk the topic is China, we use China as a bargaining chip to push our ECONOMIC agenda while the American push theirs. All in All it's just talk and with this current US administration nobody want to follow the Ukrainian example...lol

What I see with Brandon recent Taiwan gaffe is so damaging to US prestige. Instead of weakening China it had embolden her with us in the region being pull along. Neutrality is the current word being use as a foreign policy tool. Vietnam is silent and Singapore is starting to bark back...lol

The current status quo is extremely favorable for all the countries in the region like ASEAN, Japan and South Korea. It has gotten attention from the West, giving them investments, military deals and all sorts of other goodies. Its in their best interest to keep the region peaceful through negotiations and diplomacy secretly or openly, and balance the power in the region between both major powers to keep this gravy train rolling.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

One question: why do you regard losing to Taiwan 1v1 as less damaging to Chinese prestige than losing to US?

Is it because losing to Taiwan 1v1 can be spun as having insufficient will but retaining the physical capability to deter, while losing to the US means Chinese deterrence has completely failed?

It's not just prestige, however. It's about power projection and the ability to stave off any foreign contenders in the Western Pacific.

Scenario 1: China vs Taiwan would be 1 vs 1.

Scenario 2: China vs Taiwan with direct intervention from the US-led Lackey Inc. (i.e. US+Japan+South Korea+Australia+UK) would be 1 vs 6.

Even if South Korea and the UK chicken out and decide to stay neutral, it would still be 1 vs 4.

To put it simply:

Scenario 1 = You fighting alone against only one opponent;
versus
Scenario 2 = You fighting alone against multiple opponents.

Which fight would would hurt you more? And which fight would carry more implications and effect later on?

 

[ansy1968]

The current status quo is extremely favorable for all the countries in the region like ASEAN, Japan and South Korea. It has gotten attention from the West, giving them investments, military deals and all sorts of other goodies. Its in their best interest to keep the region peaceful through negotiations and diplomacy secretly or openly, and balance the power between both major powers to keep this gravy train rolling.

@Coalescence Bro under the US hegemony how many economic crisis and war did the region experiences? the current status quo only happen in 2012 when Xi assume the presidency and the weakening of the US after the 2008 financial crisis. What did it say, China provide a stabilizing influence in the region and the US does the opposite.

 

[Rettam Stacf]

Pretty interesting scenarios, but I think even if China did win with or without US intervention in the Taiwan scenario, the ASEAN countries will still use US as a counterbalance and may even further increase their cooperation because now China's military balance in the region becomes tilted in her favor. The current status is actually favorable for every country in the region, and if a war breaks out it would be catastrophic for them, so I think they might secretly do diplomacy and negotiations, especially with Taiwan to prevent a war from happening.

If there was intervention by US forces, this would become incredibly catastrophic for the region regardless of outcome by the end of the battle, because it will become a declaration of war between two major powers that won't end after the battle unless a settlement is reached. Most likely both side's military power will become degraded, and depending on the damage it, it would leave a power vacuum for regional powers like Russia, South Korea and Japan to exploit. If China lost, its going to be unpredictable what will happen, they might completely ally themselves with Russia or declare they will declare a no sail zone in SCS using anti-ship missiles to sink ships, disrupting maritime trade in the region.

Why would China declare a no sail zone in SCS ? It just doesn't make any economic or geopolitical sense.

The majority of maritime traffics in the SCS are for China, Japan, S Korea and Taiwan. Take a look at E Asia map. For Japan, S Korea and Taiwan, they can easily avoid the SCS and take the sea route between the first and second island chains. An inconvenience, may be by an extra day of sailing at the most. A choke hold, absolutely not.

The other country that may be affected is Vietnam. But even Vietnam can sail through her own sovereign water and bypass SCS.

So why would China declare a no sail zone to hurt nobody but her own trade, and antagonize everyone else ?

Fear of China blockading SCS is just Western warmongering narrative for ignorant people with no knowledge of geography and eat up western propaganda whole.

 

[ansy1968]

It's not just prestige, however. It's about power projection and the ability to stave off any foreign contenders in the Western Pacific.

Scenario 1: China vs Taiwan would be 1 vs 1.

Scenario 2: China vs Taiwan with direct intervention from the US-led Lackey Inc. (i.e. US+Japan+South Korea+Australia+UK) would be 1 vs 6.

Even if South Korea and the UK chicken out and decide to stay neutral, it would still be 1 vs 4.

To put it simply:

Scenario 1 = You fighting alone against only one opponent;
versus
Scenario 2 = You fighting alone against multiple opponents.

Which fight would would hurt you more? And which fight would carry more implications and effect later on?

bro, IF SK intervene Seoul will be destroyed not by the Chinese BUT the North Korean, SK are not dumb , they know China act as a restraining factor, the same can be said for Japan. Nk won't hesitate to Nuke Tokyo as a historical revenge. This fight is between the Anglo Saxon country (the five eyes) vs China, Russia and Iran. The US is overstretch and its vassal need to step up, like the Romans before BUT can the US afforded it, IF not they risk the same fate as the Romans as the Vandals and the Visigoth sack Rome.

 

[Coalescence]

Why would China declare a no sail zone in SCS ? It just doesn't make any economic or geopolitical sense.

The majority of maritime traffics in the SCS are for China, Japan, S Korea and Taiwan. Take a look at E Asia map. For Japan, S Korea and Taiwan, they can easily avoid the SCS and take the sea route between the first and second island chains. An inconvenience, may be by an extra day of sailing at the most. A choke hold, absolutely not.

The other country that can be affected is Vietnam. But even Vietnam can sail through her own sovereign water and bypass SCS.

So why would China declare a no sail zone to hurt nobody but her own trade, and antagonize everyone else ?

Fear of China blockading SCS is just Western warmongering narrative for ignorant people with no knowledge of geography and eat up western propaganda whole.

Yeah, it doesn't make sense but the point I want to make is the effect of the loss would be unpredictable, the no sail zone could be selectively enforced on US ships, their allies and the countries in the region that might flip to their side, or as a tool of political settlement for the countries that flipped because of the loss of military power. It all really depends on how it plays out.