Ladakh Flash Point

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Jason_

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The increase in troops and equipment by China since 2020 is far below what would be required to counter and defeat a dedicated Indian invasion. But it's done regardless because it's been wanting for a long time and 2020 revealed India does have plans to take parts of Tibet if Amit Shah's 2019 speech wasn't enough to show what India wants to do.

The problem for Indians is that their leaders are less than incompetent. Military strategic thinking from the early 20th century and a poor understanding of how military ties with politics... if what is said over the years by Amit Shah and their countless defence leaders aren't obvious enough as to how true that is. But one can only be incompetent for so long before it's exposed and obvious... which India quietly accepts deep down.

So long as China stays technologically superior and well equipped to deal with India, their political leaders may at most only attempt slight salami slicing. If it comes down to a dedicated horde rush from the Indians because the majority of their forces have basically always been in this area, China has no means of countering except tactical nukes or a lot of thermobaric weapons.
India cannot launch a full scale invasion. There are no logistics or infrastructure in place. Simply getting the troops to acclimate to the plateau will take weeks.
 

SEAD

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India cannot launch a full scale invasion. There are no logistics or infrastructure in place. Simply getting the troops to acclimate to the plateau will take weeks.
Exactly. People who have never been in Tibet cannot imagine how harsh the environment is. It’s not easier for taking military operations in some regions of Tibet than in south polar.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
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I think people underestimate the difficulties of operating Air Force in high altitude conditions. Laser guided munitions can miss due to intense sunlight interference. Satellite guided bombs can miss due to terrain.

You basically need to recalibrate all of your weapons and that takes a lot of trial firing to tweak. Not all countries have the luxury of doing that.
Indeed. It's the Indians who are routinely underestimating high altitude warfare. For the last 2 years. We have seen China do plenty of live-fire exercises. While for India, we had seen only a handful of actual live-fire exercises. India could not afford to expend their imported munitions in exercises. It's one thing to do sporadic test firing and claim technical success. It's another to actually get your soldiers to fire large amounts of the same munitions in exercises, and repeat those successes.

The Indians like to cite their decades of experience in fighting Pakistan over Kashmir. But those fighting there in the last 30 years had been exclusively low-intensity warfare. That's why the Indians like to talk about doing 'surgical strikes' or 'special operations' against their enemies. India likes to assume that war with China will be fought in skirmishes. They hope that the advanced Indian weaponry could allow them to win some individual skirmishes against China. And then India can claim victory.

China, unlike India is preparing for large-scale high-intensity warfare. A war fought with India over a broad front from Ladakh, to AP. They're preparing for India going for all-out war against them. The scale of the PLA military exercises and infrastructure buildup reflects this. China is preparing for high-intensity warfare over a extended campaign period.

High-intensity warfare is beyond even the thinking of Indian military top brass. They have talked about troop numbers, but they haven't even talked about how to conduct large-scale operations. The Indians like to imagine that they are inspired by the Israeli method of modern warfare. But that is an absurdity. Bombing poor militaries and impoverished people is not high-intensity warfare, it's bullying. China will not be bullied.

The Ladakh standoff of 2020 is an example. The Indians moved some units to salami-slice pieces of Aksai Chin away from China. The PLA responded by moving troops over a broad front to take back swathes of Aksai Chin. That shocked the Indians immensely. The clashes at Galwan and Pangong Lake were all individual skirmishes within a large front. The Indians had to react to every Chinese movement. It was China that dictated the battlespace over Ladakh. China is serious about fighting over territory. They don't sneak around to steal salami-slices of land. They will grab entire areas if they wanted to. The Indians have no idea what is coming for them if China is pushed into going to war.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
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Are there any PLAAF aircrafts still using Russian/Ukrainian munitions? Just my own curiosity and not relevant to the main topic(I know Su-35 is but any others?)

In terms of air to air weapons R-27 and R-77 are still used for legacy flankers like the J-11A/Su-27/Su-30 and Su-35, but in the case of PLANAF Su-30 they are being phased out due to both age and depletion in live fire exercises. China has successfully integrated PL-12 and PL-8 with Su-30.

I am unsure if China still imports Russian air to surface munition but in the early 2000s it was the largest consumer of Russian air to surface missiles, even more than Russia itself.
 

MrCrazyBoyRavi

Junior Member
Registered Member
Atbeast china can cut off eastern part of India but a full scale India Vs China is hypothetically impossible. Even Russia couldn’t steamroll militarily across flat plain against Ukraine despite superior military hardware & economic resources. China won’t perform any better against India in himalays either.
I think the real hot war will be fought in Ocean where India can choke off China’s trade route. While China is hesitant to leave its China sea bastion due to USN fear.

India can really hurt China more than China can hurt India. India has been actively banning Chinese companies & Technologies, while China is only protesting. When you are named global enemy no1 by west, there is very little you can do to avoid escalation & troubles.

China & India has been at peace for millenium due to Himalayan (geography). Infact both nation are natural allies. Both nation knows they are in hit list of emperilist nations. Just do a goddamn border treaty and stop fighting.
 

SEAD

Junior Member
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Atbeast china can cut off eastern part of India but a full scale India Vs China is hypothetically impossible. Even Russia couldn’t steamroll militarily across flat plain against Ukraine despite superior military hardware & economic resources. China won’t perform any better against India in himalays either.
I think the real hot war will be fought in Ocean where India can choke off China’s trade route. While China is hesitant to leave its China sea bastion due to USN fear.

India can really hurt China more than China can hurt India. India has been actively banning Chinese companies & Technologies, while China is only protesting. When you are named global enemy no1 by west, there is very little you can do to avoid escalation & troubles.

China & India has been at peace for millenium due to Himalayan (geography). Infact both nation are natural allies. Both nation knows they are in hit list of emperilist nations. Just do a goddamn border treaty and stop fighting.
Technically China doesn’t need to leave their bastion, they have a lot of bombers and ASBM/HGV. Those weapons are designed against USN so even “cannon fire to hit a mosquito” in their words to defeat India Navy.
 

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
Atbeast china can cut off eastern part of India but a full scale India Vs China is hypothetically impossible. Even Russia couldn’t steamroll militarily across flat plain against Ukraine despite superior military hardware & economic resources. China won’t perform any better against India in himalays either.
I think the real hot war will be fought in Ocean where India can choke off China’s trade route. While China is hesitant to leave its China sea bastion due to USN fear.

India can really hurt China more than China can hurt India. India has been actively banning Chinese companies & Technologies, while China is only protesting. When you are named global enemy no1 by west, there is very little you can do to avoid escalation & troubles.

China & India has been at peace for millenium due to Himalayan (geography). Infact both nation are natural allies. Both nation knows they are in hit list of emperilist nations. Just do a goddamn border treaty and stop fighting.

Seriously doubt India will dare to choke off China's sea lane trade route in the Indian Ocean. It is a declaration of war. China has too many response options that does not even involve any ground troops. Just to name a few.
  • The first one is already mentioned by @SEAD using ASBM. China can take out Indian aircraft carriers, one after another, with land based ASBM, unless they stay far out in the Indian Ocean and never return to shore. To add insult to injury, the Chinese land based ASBM will fly over India to hit those carriers.
  • There are ample military and civilian targets within 500 km of the border with China, including New Delhi. Taking out one a day, starting with military targets, by SRBM, LRCM and long range rockets until India ceases hostility.
  • Cyber attack on infrastructures like power generation etc.
  • Taking out Indian communication, surveillance and navigation satellites one after another.
  • Divert water from Yarlung Tsangpo/Brahmaputra River. This is a less desirable option as it will affect Bangladesh too.
 

SEAD

Junior Member
Registered Member
Seriously doubt India will dare to choke off China's sea lane trade route in the Indian Ocean. It is a declaration of war. China has too many response options that does not even involve any ground troops. Just to name a few.
  • The first one is already mentioned by @SEAD using ASBM. China can take out Indian aircraft carriers, one after another, with land based ASBM, unless they stay far out in the Indian Ocean and never return to shore. To add insult to injury, the Chinese land based ASBM will fly over India to hit those carriers.
  • There are ample military and civilian targets within 500 km of the border with China, including New Delhi. Taking out one a day, starting with military targets, by SRBM, LRCM and long range rockets until India ceases hostility.
  • Cyber attack on infrastructures like power generation etc.
  • Taking out Indian communication, surveillance and navigation satellites one after another.
  • Divert water from Yarlung Tsangpo/Brahmaputra River. This is a less desirable option as it will affect Bangladesh too.
Diverting water is impossible because most water of these rivers are from South Asian Monsoon but all other methods are exactly available.
 
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