No no. China cannot take Taiwan even without US support. A D-day style invasion is one of the hardest military maneuvers to pull off. And requires the element of surprise. In the case of taiwan, any PLAN preparation will be spotted weeks in advance giving Taiwanese forces ample time to prepare.
And even if china secures the beach landing, it faces a arduous task of fighting off Taiwanese gorilla warfare for years. Also remember, Taiwan is a very mountainous country, plenty of places for Taiwanese military to hide.
Only way China gets Taiwan is if the Taiwanese people actually want to reunify with China. And the only way that’s happening is if the two countries share similar political values. But under that scenario, the CCP has to go
This will not go like the invasion of Normandy. China will initiate this. They have rocket artillery that will go over 300 km, covering most of Taiwan. The landing will happen in multiple places, inland, on East Coast, West Coast. They could even take ports. When a country can take out your soldiers and equipment from across the strait, and can see all your troop movements, it means there would be very little resistance at all the landing sites.
The bombardment will start at night. After one night of bombing, Taiwan will lose all headquarters, airports, missile batteries, radar installations. The troops that rush to the beaches will be blown up enroute even before the invasion. Drones, airplanes and choppers will clear the landing sites of any further resistance.
In two or three days, there will be enough Chinese forces that the tide will turn. Hiding in buildings and in the mountains is not that easy. Small number of elite troops can hide in the mountains, but can only do some sabotage which will not change the outcome. With drones looking at you 24/7, it is not that easy to even hide in the mountains. Those that stay in the buildings will eventually be picked up by face recognition software. Anyways, if you are staying inside a building, you are not stopping the invasion. To do so, you must stop the flow of troops and material through the ports. Militarily, taking Taiwan without the involvement of the U.S. is a done deal. I just don't think it is the right thing for the Chinese to do right now.
