Ladakh Flash Point

siegecrossbow said:

The strategic conundrum is that if (and that's a big IF) India attacks and goes for Aksai Chin, Pakistan isn't gonna exactly sit still and leave Kashmir alone.

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To be fair, Pakistan has less resources than India for any offensive adventure. They are well equipped for defending what they already have. The theater nukes Pakistan has gives them a significant breathing room.

Pakistan maybe able to get some patches of land but not Kashmir in its entirety

twineedle said:

I do appreciate how the rules are equally applied to all, and only the most serious of offences are met with bans.

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@twineedle bro we appreciate your participation, its an exchange of ideas, not about debating to win. We want to know the Indian perspective as well as yours on us. We may disagree the point is to have a friendly discussion and welcome to SDF.

I wonder what's the end goal of India here. Right now they just seem to be mirroring Chinese move. But, they can't outbuild the Chinese and deploying more soldiers is just going to take much needed money from elsewhere. Might as well swallow their pride and cut a deal with China. China may even be willing to help with their Covid problem and who knows in the future China could possibly broker a deal between Pakistan and India. That basically clears the way for India to focus solely on their economy.

watt said:

I wonder what's the end goal of India here. Right now they just seem to be mirroring Chinese move. But, they can't outbuild the Chinese and deploying more soldiers is just going to take much needed money from elsewhere. Might as well swallow their pride and cut a deal with China. China may even be willing to help with their Covid problem and who knows in the future China could possibly broker a deal between Pakistan and India. That basically clears the way for India to focus solely on their economy.

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They have already cut a deal. It's just that it's not China they've cut it with. It's the US.

Remember the Sino Soviet split, the Zhenbao island clash, US China relationship 1980s? There is a bollywood remake of that.

twineedle said:

Previously I thought you had intended to seriously discuss the topic of the thread. Now, i doubt that.

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I don't even think this troll is Indian. He sounds more like an unhinged deranged American Trumpist.

India's goal is to preserve the legitimacy of its claim on Aksai Chin while positioning within the remaining 20% dispute in order to maintain an access to Aksai Chin and the legacy dispute between the two. China's goal is to prevent India from making good their claim of Aksai Chin and thwart its advances in creating some de facto ownership of the remaining 20% which is what China has done on the 80% China controls, since the border war in the 60s. This has resulted in both insisting (still) on token positions and presence within the 20%, for India so that it doesn't lose the 20% and allow it to become a buffer from which China could cut off Indian access to the rest of India's claims and for China so that India doesn't gain de facto control on the 20%.

The high profile conflict zones of Pangong lake and Galwan valley have been disengaged so that it is less of a political drama case for India (since the ruling party needs to deal with that drama whereas the Chinese state doesn't) and allow both sides to play diplomacy and talk without distractions from India's people and the BJP's detractors and competitors. China disengaged PLA after India agreed to terms of disengagement but effectively the disagreement on disputes and claims are unresolved. Basically those disengagements seem to have been there to create some political room for the BJP to be less distracted by internal politics and form better diplomacy and solutions with China... in this case, they are unsatisfactory ones and neither side is budging on their grand intentions. The reasons for this have also been speculated on in the past but this is a summary.

Since neither side will compromise on goals and both are at odds, China wants India to play less to the Americans while India wants China to do as India wishes. I would say India demands more of the relationship compared to China. China considers India for some reason, to be working against China and with the US against China on multiple fronts. It therefore concludes that India has bad intentions and since it is playing the role of enemy state, what can China do about these issues? It can either confront India in Ladakh or it can give an enemy state disputed territory. China hasn't done anything to India. India thinks China's support of Pakistan is enough to consider China as its enemy state and that is a fair criticism from their perspective. The big picture situation is an unfortunate thing and a remnant of the legacy dispute. If one or both could compromise properly and work with each other, the diplomatic resolution becomes more realistic, right now it is on a war path and much to the delight of the US. Indian leaders cannot see beyond these decades and don't know what's good for themselves long term... as in very long term. We can pretend western powers are peace loving sweethearts or we can get real.

as a benchmark, a lightly mechanized force, with support troops, of about 200,000 men will consume about 1,000 tons of supplies a day just standing still on defensive If the whole force marchs the requirements would double or triple. Go into offensive, it will double or triple again. That is just the supply the force will consume, not including the supply that must be consumed just to get the supplies there. This also does not include any heavy equipment replacement that would be needed once the fighting gets serious.

I doubt at the moment any military force really has the ability to airlift 3,000-6,000 tons by air over any significant distance every day, day in and day out, to support 200,000 men on sustained mechanized offensive against opposition, even without the enemy contesting air superiority over the force.

There is zero possibility that the Indian military can conduct offensive operation inside Tibet with 200,000 men even if it were the most proficient or skilled force in the world.

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If india is less involved with the same powers that are attacking China, China would have less reason to view India as a primary source of destabilisation in these regions. If India didn't support Tibetan independence and constantly undermine China there and particularly in various forms of propaganda. Like can you blame China for considering India untrustworthy and certainly out to harm China?

Likewise, China supports Pakistan militarily and politically. Mostly just politically. If India resolves conflict with Pakistan, China and India could move a step closer towards resolving tensions too since that is a common factor and a major motivator of enmity at least from India towards China.

It doesn't help that Indian politicians are far more likely to be acting in bad faith (since it is certain Chinese ones cannot be, this is logical, undeniable and obvious since why would it harm its own interests and goals) and influenced by third party groups. These issues are Chinese and Indian bilateral ones that less directly involve Pakistan and therefore also the Kashmir conflict. The rest is political and ideological in nature but therefore also minimal issues. If Pakistan and India work towards real peace and that is sustained, China and Indian issues are a step closer to peaceful resolution. I have a feeling many Indians particularly those Hindu nationalist types have no intention or true desire for peace. China does because it is doing well with it and wants to maintain how well it is doing. Instability and war is awful but if it comes, will be sure to end it.

The prevailing attitudes I feel from Indian nationalists and military fanboys is they want to repeat some rape of Nanking situation and want a chance to satisfy their depravity. Well let nature and judgement be upon them for that sadism. A conquest of Tibet is their desire and a balkanisation of China so they can do as they please and feel mighty and powerful on the suffering of others. It's fucked up and disgusting but that's how many of them talk.

China clearly would prefer things stayed the same way they have for the last thirty years. The conditions that is. The trajectory of China would make it several times the US by the end of the century if those conditions continue for it. And when it does, as it has the power to now, it has no desire to rape and pillage.

So India isn't happy with the present situation for the last fifty years and China isn't happy with India making trouble for China at every turn. There is the underlying reason for the conditions that inflamed the conflict. Of course we also have article 370 being revoked, both sides salami slicing at various points in history and setting up that precendent, and India threatening CPEC and BRI, then there's the backdrop of the Doklam disagreement and troop patrols within the 20%. If India had military superiority in this region, India would have taken the 20%. Because Chinese kept demonstrating effectiveness of modern artillery - basically as effective as ballistic missiles now hitting moving targets at 150km somehow, Indian military leaders thought twice about actual war. China is in defensive posture here and waiting for Indian attack which erred. India didn't expect China to react so dramatically to mirror developments and increased patrols. Indian military leaders also understand going to war may mean no coming back. This isn't an excursion into Kashmir to do as they please as the IA has done. It also won't be some light exchange of gunfire on the LOC. They hesitated and CCP understands no war is happening but the enemy waits in patience for an opportunity. Coordinating with the real superpower on a potential two front engagement. China should maintain the peace but arm itself well and be prepared.

ougoah said:

If one or both could compromise properly and work with each other, the diplomatic resolution becomes more realistic

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I dont know what you would like for China to compromise on.

China from the start of the conflict behaved extremely "business-like". It released the captured Indian soldiers. It didnt try to humiliate India om the public media, unlike India which started slandering China and releasing fake videos.

China also even took the unprecedented step of hiding its own casualties from its own people in order to avoid having the diplomatic talks getting derailed by the public's anger.

China also, as you mentioned, agree with India to disengage from some areas in order to give Indian leaders some breathing room from their own domestic politics.

Xi has repeatedly said that he wants a friendly relationship with India. Instead, India has responded by breaching the Kashmir issue and then attacking Pakistan (Feb 2019?)

India has without cause repeatedly attacked China whenever it had thought that "China" was weak.

In fact I would say that China has treated India so good that it actually gave it courage to provoke and attack China without consequences. It was about time that China seriously slapped back India.

And even now it still took a step back and disengaged from its conquered Indian claimed land.

What more you would like for China to compromise? To break up the alliance with Pakistan? To stop the CPEC program? To become an Indian doormat letting it attack without any consequences and killing Chinese soldiers?

IMO there is no more room for compromise. India has opened too much its own mouth for China to take a step back. Only compromise will come from Indian's side