Ladakh Flash Point


localizer

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“You can’t afford to go all out into an import substitution mode — you don’t have the financial resources nor the technology,” he said. “We’ve got to be very strategic in terms of deciding which sectors we want to ramp up production. You can’t afford to think of boycotting everything all at once.”
 

reservior dogs

New Member
Registered Member
Given the absolutely colossal cost in lives and economic damage, would you take a working vaccine now, or wait months for one that might also work?

You also need to factor in that developing the vaccine is only half the equation. Just how much longer would it take to manufacture the hundreds of millions of doses of it needed to effectively inoculate western populations without China’s manufacturing and support infrastructure networks (if it is even possible)?



And just how did you calculate such odds? Because the only way Taiwan can fend off a full force invasion from China is with massive and immediate direct foreign military involvement. Even then it’s at best a close run thing, and most likely will only serve to increase the time and cost for China to take Taiwan.



Because COVID19 is a once in multiple-generations freak event; and I am not naive enough to think of Chinese National policy as purely reactionary and so principled that China is not able to take a hard nosed approach to evaluating the impact of such events to not consider all possible opportunities it presents.

As mentioned above, the lion share of the cost and risk of a military solution to the Taiwan issue would be from direct foreign military intervention and potentially from economic damage from sanctions and boycotts afterwards.

The PLA will be stronger in absolute and relative terms to better dissuade and even fight off foreign military involvement in the future yes, but the costs to China of fighting off the US in 10 years time is still going be to orders of magnitudes more than just fighting Taiwan tomorrow. In addition to the significantly less likelihood of direct US military involvement in a Taiwan takeover under the scenario described, there will almost certainly be far less economic fallout as neither the US or EU could afford to impose economic sanctions on China if they are relying on the good graces of Beijing to supply them with COVID19 vaccines.

There are always at least two sides to each calculation when it comes to game theory - your own strengths and motivations, and your opponents. The best outcome you can reach is usually achieved when making your move when the relative difference between the two sides is most in your favour, so you cannot simply only look at how your own power and motivational curves develops, but also need to be mindful of how your opponent’s change as well.

Going by current trends, it seems likely American hostility towards China will be far more entrenched and deep rooted at all levels of government and society in 10 years’ time give the great power competition at play and how China is increasingly catching up and exceeding America. As such, even though both the absolute power of the PLA will be much stronger, and the relative power different between the PLA and the US military will be much smaller in 10 years time, the likelihood that America will commit to direct military action may actually also be higher given that will probably be their last and only chance to decisively change the course China is on to comprehensively overtake America.

Far more concerning for China is that as things stand, China is the reactionary side. America and trigger war any time it wants by merely giving Taiwan a secret node that it would support its declaring of independence. That means China needs to be constantly ready to fight for Taiwan and not have any moments of weakness.

Imagine what could have happened had China not been as effect at dealing with COVID19 as it was. If China was hobbled by COVID19 and it was America that managed to decisively contain the outbreak, there would be a huge likelihood that America would choose and capitalise on that sudden shift in power by pushing Taiwan to formal independence.

Can you guarantee that it will always been success and smooth sailing for China for the next 10, 20 or 30 years until China is so far ahead of America that even during a moment of national weakness and calamity that China would still be able to fight off the fully might of the US military who can pick and choose when to fight to best suit their timetable?



As decided by who? If given the choice of some personal economic hardship and Taiwan, I doubt many ordinary people in China will choose money.

This focus on economic delivery is just more western prejudices and wishful thinking being projected on China.

The obsession on money is a western semi-racist charcuterie of Chinese much like the same anti-Semitic stereotyping against Jews.

The focus on economic performance is just western wishful thinking that the year China has a bad economy is the year the people will all rise up and do a colour revolution for them.
While it would be militarily possible for China to take Taiwan today, I don't think it would happen unless the U.S. or Taiwan really force the issue. I agree that if China were to take Taiwan today, the U.S. would be unlikely to intervene militarily. However, in the current strategic competition between the two nations, China is still the weaker of the two. It is therefore very important for China to keep as many countries at least neutral in this competition as possible. In today's environment, it is very difficult for the U.S. to create an alliance against China since countries like even Japan and Germany have their self interests to serve. When not forced to choose sides, they won't. Invading Taiwan would provide the U.S. with leverage that would force other countries to choose a side. Given that the U.S. is still the stronger power of the two, when forced to choose sides, every country will side with the U.S. On the other hand, if this event was forced by Taiwan, then it gives other countries cover not to choose sides.

China will wait until its power surpass the U.S. before taking Taiwan. I think even at that time, the way they would do it is to blockade and wait for the U.S. to not show up. Once it is clear that the U.S. is not coming, then Taiwan would fold. I would not worry about waiting for an opening. China too can find a vile of detergent and go to the U. N. if the timing suits them.
 

muddie

Junior Member
While it would be militarily possible for China to take Taiwan today, I don't think it would happen unless the U.S. or Taiwan really force the issue. I agree that if China were to take Taiwan today, the U.S. would be unlikely to intervene militarily. However, in the current strategic competition between the two nations, China is still the weaker of the two. It is therefore very important for China to keep as many countries at least neutral in this competition as possible. In today's environment, it is very difficult for the U.S. to create an alliance against China since countries like even Japan and Germany have their self interests to serve. When not forced to choose sides, they won't. Invading Taiwan would provide the U.S. with leverage that would force other countries to choose a side. Given that the U.S. is still the stronger power of the two, when forced to choose sides, every country will side with the U.S. On the other hand, if this event was forced by Taiwan, then it gives other countries cover not to choose sides.

China will wait until its power surpass the U.S. before taking Taiwan. I think even at that time, the way they would do it is to blockade and wait for the U.S. to not show up. Once it is clear that the U.S. is not coming, then Taiwan would fold. I would not worry about waiting for an opening. China too can find a vile of detergent and go to the U. N. if the timing suits them.
Not sure why people are talking about Taiwan in an India thread?!

Also why would China proactively attack Taiwan unless Taiwan formally declares independence, which is NOT happening because that would give China justification. China is playing the long game here through economical and political entrapment. There is 0 chance U.S. has the political willpower or the public support to intervene on behalf of Taiwan. I can guarantee you 80%+of Americans can't point out where Taiwan is on a map.
 

Petrolicious88

New Member
Registered Member
While it would be militarily possible for China to take Taiwan today, I don't think it would happen unless the U.S. or Taiwan really force the issue. I agree that if China were to take Taiwan today, the U.S. would be unlikely to intervene militarily. However, in the current strategic competition between the two nations, China is still the weaker of the two. It is therefore very important for China to keep as many countries at least neutral in this competition as possible. In today's environment, it is very difficult for the U.S. to create an alliance against China since countries like even Japan and Germany have their self interests to serve. When not forced to choose sides, they won't. Invading Taiwan would provide the U.S. with leverage that would force other countries to choose a side. Given that the U.S. is still the stronger power of the two, when forced to choose sides, every country will side with the U.S. On the other hand, if this event was forced by Taiwan, then it gives other countries cover not to choose sides.

China will wait until its power surpass the U.S. before taking Taiwan. I think even at that time, the way they would do it is to blockade and wait for the U.S. to not show up. Once it is clear that the U.S. is not coming, then Taiwan would fold. I would not worry about waiting for an opening. China too can find a vile of detergent and go to the U. N. if the timing suits them.
No no. China cannot take Taiwan even without US support. A D-day style invasion is one of the hardest military maneuvers to pull off. And requires the element of surprise. In the case of taiwan, any PLAN preparation will be spotted weeks in advance giving Taiwanese forces ample time to prepare.

And even if china secures the beach landing, it faces a arduous task of fighting off Taiwanese gorilla warfare for years. Also remember, Taiwan is a very mountainous country, plenty of places for Taiwanese military to hide.

Only way China gets Taiwan is if the Taiwanese people actually want to reunify with China. And the only way that’s happening is if the two countries share similar political values. But under that scenario, the CCP has to go
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
No no. China cannot take Taiwan even without US support. A D-day style invasion is one of the hardest military maneuvers to pull off. And requires the element of surprise. In the case of taiwan, any PLAN preparation will be spotted weeks in advance giving Taiwanese forces ample time to prepare.

And even if china secures the beach landing, it faces a arduous task of fighting off Taiwanese gorilla warfare for years. Also remember, Taiwan is a very mountainous country, plenty of places for Taiwanese military to hide.

Only way China gets Taiwan is if the Taiwanese people actually want to reunify with China. And the only way that’s happening is if the two countries share similar political values. But under that scenario, the CCP has to go
@Bltizo

Can you move this to a Taiwan thread?
 

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