Ladakh Flash Point

siegecrossbow · Jun 28, 2020

Mt1701d said:
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Breitbart’s source is an India today report... they are just reporting their own bs

Holy cow it is becoming a B.S. quotathon.

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India gave a befitting response to those who eyed Indian territory in Ladakh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Sunday referring to the violent stand-off between India and China along the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh without naming China.

Indian and Chinese troops had clashed in Galwan Valley on June 15 in which 20 Indian Army soldiers, including the commanding officer of 16 Bihar Regiment, were killed.

India has shown the world its sense of fraternity during the coronavirus pandemic as well its strength and commitment to protecting its sovereignty and borders, PM Modi said as he addressed Mann Ki Baat, his monthly radio programme.

“In Ladakh, a befitting reply has been given those coveting ur territories. India knows how to maintain friendships but it can also look someone in the eye and retaliate and give an apt reply,” PM Modi said during the 66th episode of Mann Ki Baat.

“Our brave soldiers have shown that they will not let any harm be done to Mother India’s pride. India bows to our brave martyrs. They have always kept India safe. Their valour will always be remembered,” he added.

This is the first Mann Ki Baat episode after the face-off in Ladakh.

The Prime Minister also extended his condolences to the families of the soldiers who were killed in the Galwan Valley clash.

“The inner sense of pride that families feel on the supreme sacrifice of their brave sons and their sentiment for the country, constitutes the true power and the might of the country.”

The external affairs ministry has squarely blamed China for the standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), saying China had massed troops along the disputed frontier since May, violated a recent understanding to disengage in Galwan Valley and disregarded all mutually agreed norms for border patrols.

Accusing China of triggering several face-offs by trying to unilaterally change the status quo along the LAC, the Indian side rejected the Chinese side’s “unjustified and untenable” claim on Galwan Valley.

The statement also acknowledged both sides “remain deployed in large numbers in the region”.

Looks like Modi is trying to avoid a fight at all costs. He didn't mention China by name in either of the two speeches he gave. My prediction is that if nothing happens by the middle of August (when snow cuts off supply lines) nothing will happen this year.

Mt1701d · Jun 28, 2020

siegecrossbow said:
Holy cow it is becoming a B.S. quotathon

Sigh that’s how news is done nowadays, Someone comes out with BS, all other news reports on the BS and then everyone thinks the BS is legit because all ‘credible’ news source reported on it, until you find out they all say XYZ reported the BS as a source. I am starting to legit consider that modern news reporting is just the lifecycle of BS-ing.

Usually I would look at the one reporting and sometimes dismiss it out-of-hand, but you never know if they actually have some other more legit sources. But finding other news report with other/more legit sources is like hitting the lottery nowadays. But this time Indian news out did themselves and literally completed the lifecycle of BS

solarz · Jun 28, 2020

Mt1701d said:
Sigh that’s how news is done nowadays, Someone comes out with BS, all other news reports on the BS and then everyone thinks the BS is legit because all ‘credible’ news source reported on it, until you find out they all say XYZ reported the BS as a source. I am starting to legit consider that modern news reporting is just the lifecycle of BS-ing.

Usually I would look at the one reporting and sometimes dismiss it out-of-hand, but you never know if they actually have some other more legit sources. But finding other news report with other/more legit sources is like hitting the lottery nowadays. But this time Indian news out did themselves and literally completed the lifecycle of BS

It's the Age of Misinformation.

Xizor · Jun 28, 2020

AndrewS said:
It would also demonstrate the clear *benefits* of aligning with China.

I am receptive of the underlying emotions when you say "China may relieve Kashmir".

But while at it, why not separate and create a Sikh state out of India too? Just make the PLA and PA to March a few kilometers down the Kashmir Valley to reach the Arabian sea and you've got yourself another group of people eager to break away from India.

Let's be real. Liberating Kashmir is not probable or possible. It is far fetched. Even more so for China whose capacity for sustained offensive capability would be termed as modest by me.

There's the threat of nuclear weapons from India too.
The best thing China can do would be to open a line for delivering equipments and ammunition for Pakistani Army (who has got enough reasons to endure the pain) and hope to neutralize the Indian Nuclear threat by helping Pakistan in prompt first strike.
Then there exists the threat of Indian Navy. India's submarines are a credible threat to Pakistan. Neutralizing Indian Nuclear sub is difficult too. I think they'd have moved it to a safe place (Eastern coast of India already may have a Hainan like Sub dock/shelter albeit much smaller).
Both India and Pakistan would have already slugged low kt theater nukes by then.

Summary :
Covertly supporting Pakistan with hardware, Limiting Russian and Israeli support to India and helping Arab-Pak cooperation is the best way.

Honestly, it's a mess.
Let's just be real in our approach and not sink as low as the members of the many Indian Defence forums with their "Liberating Tibet " and "we hab the best army in the wold" .
I'm not saying you degraded the discussion (can't assume the high horse myself) but I'm feeling a bit shaky regarding the direction we are taking.
I believe in the quality offered here at SDF. Even Defence.pk has seen a degrade in quality.

Nobonita Barua · Jun 28, 2020

AndrewS said:
I agree that China shouldn't deliberately start a war with India

Plus you have to be realistic about China's non-military intervention policy.

When Vietnam thought it could have a military alliance with the USSR in the 1970s/1980s, the Chinese military were very aggressive in reminding Vietnam that they were just a pawn to be used by the USSR.

At the time, the US was more than happy at what was happening to Vietnam, and its "ally" the USSR.

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Yes, if China is seen as imposing/forcing Kashmiri independence with its military, then it would be bad for China's image.

But if the Kashmiri people decide to rise up against their Indian Army occupiers, China would be sympathetic.
Particularly if China-India were already in a war, and China provided a moderate level of support, like blocking the few narrow mountain roads that lead into Srinagar.

Ultimately, 9 million Kashmiri Muslims can completely overwhelm the Indian Army occupation forces in Kashmir if isolated from reinforcement by the Indian Army, and everyone knows this.

We've seen what mass protests can look like with Hong Kong or Black Lives Matter. And those were largely peaceful protests, from people working in the existing system. But with the BJP revoking Article 370 which guaranteed Kashmir's autonomy, there is no existing system to work with. BBC article below

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Also remember that the Indian government stripped the Kashmir police of their weapons before the revoking Article 370, because they feared a rebellion by the police. Voice of America article below on the Kashmir police.

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At a grassroots level, everyone would acknowledge that the Kashmiri people would be better off without their Indian overlords.
It would also demonstrate that there can be *hard costs* to going against Chinese interests.

At the moment, Kashmir is an impoverished police state where nothing works and is cut off from the world.
In the aftermath, Kashmir would be open to development, and presumably become part of CPEC.

That would connect Kashmir to China, Pakistan and the rest of the world.
It would also demonstrate the clear *benefits* of aligning with China.

I get what you are saying. But as i said, getting involved militarily in any region will harm China's long term image. Military intervention(even when asked/invited) are always sensitive & risky. What happened in Vietnam, new generation really doesn't keep those in mind. China should strictly maintain it's non-military intervention policy, that's how among new generation, who has grown up to see literally every day US is creating trouble somewhere, China has positive image. US can scream socialist, communist, south china sea,democracy, free mouth, new generation among globe doesn't really give a damn about what's going on in SCS.Or what types of government is there in what country. In fact, if you ask them, their first question would be, what's US doing in SCS? I have been watching these around me. That's the impact.
You intervene somewhere, be it Kashmir or somewhere else, militarily, bullets will be fired, people will get hurt/killed. For decades to come, these will be twisted either side. Understand this, as long as you don't set boot somewhere else, you don't have blood in your hands, you are clear.
Let me give you an example, xinjiang. US has been "very very worried" about this for long time. But did you see any public resonance giving a single crap to US concern? No, because people don't care. As far as we are concerned, China can do anything in it's territory, flush it, wash it, flood it, who f**king cares? People have their own problems to take care of. If US is so concerned, then they should take them & give them permanent residency instead of dry lip service. And this is not i am saying, you should ask people on the ground.
But when are you talking about intervening in third front, people gets irritated, even when they are not related to it. Once you have set boot on another country, that's point of no return. You will never be able to repair that image.
China has clean image among new generation, it must make sure it is kept that way.

Nobonita Barua · Jun 28, 2020

Xsizor said:
There's the threat of nuclear weapons from India too.

I don't think it will come down to that. Specially when on the other side, you have crazy people who are willing to go any length to totally annihilate India even if they are gone too.
This will keep Indians at bay. Pakistan will be gone, so will be Indian's dear "cradle of civilization".
It is one thing for Indians to come in different forums to scream war, it is another thing to face crazy people armed with nukes who are more than willing to die to take you with them. You can play nuke-nuke game with anybody else. Not with crazy pakis.

Nobonita Barua · Jun 28, 2020

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Petrolicious88 · Jun 28, 2020

Petrolicious88 said:
India missed the bus of leveraging cheap labor manufacturing to riches for two reasons:

1). Automation is coming. And this will nullify India’s large, uneducated labor pool. China or Vietnam is prob the last two countries that leveraged cheap labor to get rich.

2). Global warming. India’s geography means global warming will devastate large parts of Heat waves combined with humidity will make certain parts of india unlivable in 30 years or less. Water scarcity is already a big problem.

Given these two conditions, India’s large population is actually a massive burden.

AndrewS said:
It wasn't just a low-paid workforce in China or Vietnam, but also a literate educated one.
For example, some companies have publicly stated that their Vietnamese workers test out better than their American workers doing the same manufacturing job.

That’s certainly part of the equation. But automation and climate change means India can’t just leverage its mass pool of cheap labor to get rich. That boat as sailed.

Mohsin77 · Jun 28, 2020

@AndrewS @Xsizor

Regarding decisive action on Kashmir: We are only in the positioning stage right now. The board is not set up yet for decisive action. All that is happening right now is that China is flooding forces in theater, while continuing to increase its interoperability with the Pakistani military. This is to set up a real threat of a two-front war. The immediate effect of this is that all of India's war plans are now obsolete.

The key indicator here is that one side's options are increasing, while the other sides options are shrinking. Strategically, whenever this starts happening, it means that the game is headed into the 'end-game' territory. (By the way, one of those options is achieving victory without even going to war, by destabilizing India from within.) Either way, all China and Pakistan have to do for now is to keep positioning their forces, integrating war plans and forces, and accelerating past India's defensive capabilities. Time is on our side. The opportunity for decisive action will present itself.

AndrewS · Jun 28, 2020

Petrolicious88 said:
That’s certainly part of the equation. But automation and climate change means India can’t just leverage its mass pool of cheap labor to get rich. That boat as sailed.

I agree that low-skilled labour is going to be replaced in the future.
And to think we're still only in the early stages of applying artificial intelligence / deep learning.

But the impact of climate change on agriculture shouldn't make much difference to India's development path.
How fast India can move excess labour from agriculture to either industry or services is what matters.

Ladakh Flash Point

siegecrossbow

General

Mt1701d

Junior Member

solarz

Brigadier

Xizor

Captain

Nobonita Barua

Senior Member

Nobonita Barua

Senior Member

Nobonita Barua

Senior Member

Petrolicious88

Senior Member

Mohsin77

Senior Member

AndrewS

Brigadier