Ladakh Flash Point

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Brumby

Major
Just a note, the Spyder platform, even with the Derby missile, is nowhere near a 100km range. And it was not designed to be such a wide area denial system.
Rafale in June 2015 confirmed the existence of the I-Derby-ER that has a range of 100 kms. I believe this is the version that the IAF is planning to integrate onto their SU-30MKI due to the poor performance of the R-77 during the Feb incident last year.
 

Xizor

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Rafale in June 2015 confirmed the existence of the I-Derby-ER that has a range of 100 kms. I believe this is the version that the IAF is planning to integrate onto their SU-30MKI due to the poor performance of the R-77 during the Feb incident last year.
You meant Rafael (the Israeli firm)?
Also, Doesn't IAF Su30 MKI use PESA radars. Since they don't use Israeli AESAs (Elta 2XXX...)how can they integrate the Derby-ER to Su30?
 

Zool

Junior Member
Rafale in June 2015 confirmed the existence of the I-Derby-ER that has a range of 100 kms. I believe this is the version that the IAF is planning to integrate onto their SU-30MKI due to the poor performance of the R-77 during the Feb incident last year.

Yes to an extent re: Derby IR for IAF, but the A2A and SAM versions have complety different SFC and ranges.
 
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EtherealSmoke

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I've been pondering what is China's strategy in all this, so here it is.

I don't see any solution for India with regards to Kashmir.

The last time there was a survey in 2007, 87% of people in the Kashmiri capital wanted an independent Kashmir.
Reference below.

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Then last year, the BJP unilaterally revoked Article 370 and stripped Kashmir of its autonomy.
That also meant India lost any willing allegiance it may have had from the local population.
Example below

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Kashmir was already a police state before, and it has only gotten worse as the BJP from New Delhi imposes itself on local issues.

See Washington Post article below on 700,000 soldiers of the Indian army occupying Kashmir

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And we all know how bureaucrats and politicians from New Delhi have a long tradition of incompetent governance, resulting in the Naxalites for example.


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Any evidence Kashmir or Indian balkanization is top of mind for Chinese planners? As long as tensions stay limited as is and CPEC is secured, don't really see China going out on a limb re: Kashmir or Indian territorial integrity given the overarching US/China confrontation. Seems more logical that China wants India sidelined and neutral.

@Xsizor

Is most of the world jumping at China containment? No, and that's because China is too economically important. Containment costs would be unacceptably high, and that's pre-COVID. Now, with developed economies taking double digit hits to GDP, they're going to contain China and tank their economies further? I'm skeptical.

Probably more important to focus on the Quad, which seems more intractably anti-China. India looks to me to be the weak link, and what better timing to preempt the Quad than to eliminate one of their members during a global pandemic crisis?

I'm actually impressed by the Chinese decision-makers here, didn't think they'd be bold enough to escalate to deadly force against another nuclear power. Gotta say it signals to me resolve and intent.
 

Brumby

Major
You meant Rafael (the Israeli firm)?
Also, Doesn't IAF Su30 MKI use PESA radars. Since they don't use Israeli AESAs (Elta 2XXX...)how can they integrate the Derby-ER to Su30?
I agree integration is probably much more problematic especially when the Russians are not cooperating. The issue of integration has nothing to do with whether it is an AESA or PESA radar It is about source codes and how the different sub systems such as avionics, GPS, stores management, and sensors integrate with the missile firing system. I have seen the technical explanation on how the IAF plans to integrate an Israeli product onto a Russian system but I can;t possible determine whether it is BS or it will work. I suspect it will be difficult and will slip in time line as most Indian programs do.

Yes to an extent re: Derby IR for IAF, but the A2A and SAM versions haven't complety different SFC and ranges.

I agree and why I mentioned a qualifier up front. That said, we know the pathway with SYPDER is to take the enhancement on range from the missile range development and roll out onto the SAM system. How much of a range deficit between A2A and SAM is an unknown. In any case, ranges as quoted by defense suppliers very conveniently leave out range firing conditions. This mean range quoted are rubbery and highly subject to conditions. For example, we can typically add 30 % onto an A2A range under favorable kinematic launch conditions or a high high flight profile can be double in range to that of a low low flight profile.
 

Xizor

Captain
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@EtherealSmoke
Keeping Chinese interests in mind
I want India to join Quad and even engage in SCS drills. Quads weakness lies in the existence of USA and Australia. Australia isn't well liked by ASEAN and USA isn't either.

The bad case would be if there was a ASEAN, India, Japan alliance that kept out USA and Australia. That would be bad for China. A divided ASEAN works for China. Quad is the way to go.
 

Mt1701d

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@EtherealSmoke
Keeping Chinese interests in mind
I want India to join Quad and even engage in SCS drills. Quads weakness lies in the existence of USA and Australia. Australia isn't well liked by ASEAN and USA isn't either.

The bad case would be if there was a ASEAN, India, Japan alliance that kept out USA and Australia. That would be bad for China. A divided ASEAN works for China. Quad is the way to go.
I don’t know about the Quad and the long term aspects but ASEAN, India and Japan is highly unlikely to happen, India and Japan combined can’t even remotely impact/replace the ASEAN economic interests involved with China, Japan themselves has a great deal of economic interest to think about too. The only odd one out is India in this relationship, the problem is what can it offer that China can’t, and what can China offer that India can’t.

Tbh, the only reason I think Japan is in the Quad is because of its fear of China in the longer term and probably a great deal of coercion from the US.
 

Nobonita Barua

Senior Member
Registered Member
Is most of the world jumping at China containment? No, and that's because China is too economically important.
I think the reason goes beyond that. With evolving time, general people's priorities have shifted from politics/Geo-politics to more basic needs like education,home,life style. What US really seeking is European style solution for china that happened during WW2. They asked US for help. US fired putting gun on it's ally's shoulder. All the devastation had to be faced by the countries involved in direct conflict. US went home happily. Not only WW2, from thereon, in every conflict, US has been desperately trying to keep the conflicts as far as possible from CUS so they can avoid another Kent state saga.
In this era no one is willing to give their shoulders for US to fire. People don't prioritize politics anymore. To make thing more complicated for US , people don't give 2 crap about values US keeps bragging about & they think they are champ of.
The time has changed.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Stop your daydreaming ! Chinese people are well-educated, workforce wages are much higher than before. They now produce high-end products, computers, mobile, iPhone, AI, robots, satellite technology, monster container, mineral ore, and specialised ships for itself and other countries... The days of low-end manufacturing are truly over a couple of decades ago. Factories are now set up in India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Laos ….and in some African countries for them to grow their economy, like China did many decades ago!

No, in the year 2000, China was very much still a low end manufacturer. You can look this up yourself.

But things have changed drastically over the past 20 years. For example, the National Science Foundation reported to Congress recently that China likely spends more on Technology R&D
 
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