J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
I really don't understand why it's so hard to believe the Chinese want thrust vectoring. Clearly a lot of development was placed into the J-10 TVC demonstrator system, not to mention the purchasing of 24 Su-35s to study the Russians' TVC system. These all indicate that the PLAAF is very serious about incorporating TVC into their future fighters. Pupu, Gongke101, and others have already confirmed that the WS-15 will feature TVC.

A blurb from Song Wencong's paper on this subject.

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You got me all wrong. I believe Chinese do want TVC and I also believe WS-15 will eventually also have some TVC variant. I just don't believe the PLAAF wants to have a WS-10 based TVC or a AL-31/41 based TVC on the J-20 right now, before WS-15 is available. TVC reduces your thrust while adding more weight, maintenance costs, and complexity. It also requires the engine manufacturer to adjust their production and without J-10 also using the same engine, it makes even less economic sense. All at what prize? Ego boost? It's certainly not a capability boost. If TVC added so much capability, every 4th gen fighter would have been upgraded with one by now rather than empty promises and claims of working on one with determination. EJ200 TVC comes to mind and all those American tests on their original 3D TVC experimental engines based off the F100/110.

The technology has lots of potential and certainly is being pursued like you've mentioned and this is why China's got the WS-10 TVC variant and almost certainly will develop a TVC version of the WS-15. But it doesn't mean the WS-10 version will be implemented on the J-20 and none of this means China is desperate to get a Russian AL-31/41 based TVC flying on the J-20. The J-20 doesn't depend on thrust vectoring to fly or fulfill its purpose. In fact it can arguably perform its current duty better WITHOUT half baked or complex TVC engines.
 

Inst

Captain
This literally makes no sense at all. For the past year, we have been receiving pictures of J-20s in yellow primer with the WS-10X without thrust vectoring. Then all of a sudden, Minnie Chan goes on to rave about how J-20s with thrust vectoring AL-31s are going into mass production. Does this make any sense to you given the pictures we've been seeing? The designation is also completely wrong as well ... the J-20Bs should be referring to those with the WS-15s (which have the TVC ability). Here is a snippet from Pupu, who confirmed that the J-20B will have thrust vectoring on Weibo.
View attachment 61735

As far as the WS-10X pictures go, how do you know they're J-20B? In fact, your pupu quote shows it's not the J-20B because the J-20B would have TVC. It is perfectly possible that the initial line versions with some AL-31F derivative for the J-20 are J-20 (no mod), the WS-10X J-20s are J-20As, and this purported J-20 with TVC is the J-20B.

Regarding the pupu quote, note that he's saying that the J-20B gets TVC, not that it gets the WS-15. Try thinking about the development process of the J-20.

When you think about it, the J-20 or J-20A is more or less finished. They've gotten most of the subsystems working, the FCS is increasingly mature, and the model has been IOC for 2-3 years. Chengdu has a ton of engineers with little to do now; I don't think it was anticipated that the WS-15 would be this delayed, given that the project has been worked on for more than 10 years.

Now, if the WS-15 wasn't delayed, the obvious direction would be to modify the J-20 further to enhance its capabilities. But since the WS-15 is now delayed, it is hard to add things to the J-20 and test the new J-20 because new functionality will likely include greater weight, and the J-20 is already crippled by poor T/W due to the lateness of WS-15.

So what they could try instead, then, would be to set up a J-20B with a TVC-capable Russian engine or Chinese engine. This is something that'd take a long time because you'd need to program the flight control system to support the TVC engine, as well as work out the quirks in the engine's TVC performance. Moreover, you'd want to get operational TVC models in action so they could test its reliability under real world conditions, since Russian-style 3D TVC is notoriously maintenance intensive.

They'd have to do this anyways once the WS-15 is ready, and when they're working with the WS-15, they'd have to do the work in two stages; first, to make sure the WS-15 is reliable and works without TVC, then second, to integrate the TVC with the J-20, adjust the flight control system, and ensure the TVC's reliability.

The second step doesn't require a mature WS-15 to be ready, it just requires a TVC nozzle with some other engine, Russian or Chinese.

===

In either case, I don't see this as contradicting the known evidence so far. It's simply an unsubstantiated rumor from Minnie Chan, which is plausible, but lacks sufficient evidence.

For me, I don't see the point of discussing it. Minnie Chan said something that seems like good news. But it's Minnie Chan who said it, so we need others to corroborate the claim.
 

Inst

Captain
You got me all wrong. I believe Chinese do want TVC and I also believe WS-15 will eventually also have some TVC variant. I just don't believe the PLAAF wants to have a WS-10 based TVC or a AL-31/41 based TVC on the J-20 right now, before WS-15 is available. TVC reduces your thrust while adding more weight, maintenance costs, and complexity. It also requires the engine manufacturer to adjust their production and without J-10 also using the same engine, it makes even less economic cost. All at what prize? Ego boost? It's certainly not a capability boost. If TVC added so much capability, every 4th gen fighter would have been upgraded with one by now rather than empty promises and claims of working on one with determination. EJ200 TVC comes to mind and all those American tests on their original 3D TVC experimental engines based off the F100/110.

And that's why I'm suggesting that the J-20A and J-20B are two separate things. The J-20A's job would be to do normal line fighting, to be the backbone of the PLAAF's J-20 fleet while they're still waiting for the WS-15. The J-20B, on the other hand, would be a LRIP effort to conduct TVC research and integration for the eventual WS-15 model.

As I've said before, TVC integration takes time, and you can either wait for the WS-15 before doing the integration and research work on TVC, or you can do the integration and research work first, then backconvert it to support the WS-15 once the WS-15 comes up.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Why would PLAAF just wean the J-20 off AL-31 right after production rates start going up using WS-10 engines, only to get back on a Russian TVC engine this time? So what happens to all those J-20s manufactured with the WS-10 in 2019 and half of 2020? That's already three distinct batches with different engines in the pre-WS15 J-20 era - the first in service batches with AL-31 variants, the second batch in 2019-2020 with WS-10 variants, and now a new AL-31/41 based batch? Then 2025 or so and WS-15? Doubtful. At most it'll probably be the Chinese WS-10 TVC being tested on the J-20. Anyway all this from a rumor by Minnie Chan.
 

Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
You got me all wrong. I believe Chinese do want TVC and I also believe WS-15 will eventually also have some TVC variant. I just don't believe the PLAAF wants to have a WS-10 based TVC or a AL-31/41 based TVC on the J-20 right now, before WS-15 is available. TVC reduces your thrust while adding more weight, maintenance costs, and complexity. It also requires the engine manufacturer to adjust their production and without J-10 also using the same engine, it makes even less economic cost. All at what prize? Ego boost? It's certainly not a capability boost. If TVC added so much capability, every 4th gen fighter would have been upgraded with one by now rather than empty promises and claims of working on one with determination. EJ200 TVC comes to mind and all those American tests on their original 3D TVC experimental engines based off the F100/110.
Completely agree. I doubt the PLAAF would go through the trouble of mounting the TVC system right now on an interim engine, especially since the WS-10 doesn't generate the desirable thrust.
As far as the WS-10X pictures go, how do you know they're J-20B? In fact, your pupu quote shows it's not the J-20B because the J-20B would have TVC. It is perfectly possible that the initial line versions with some AL-31F derivative for the J-20 are J-20 (no mod), the WS-10X J-20s are J-20As, and this purported J-20 with TVC is the J-20B.

Regarding the pupu quote, note that he's saying that the J-20B gets TVC, not that it gets the WS-15. Try thinking about the development process of the J-20.

When you think about it, the J-20 or J-20A is more or less finished. They've gotten most of the subsystems working, the FCS is increasingly mature, and the model has been IOC for 2-3 years. Chengdu has a ton of engineers with little to do now; I don't think it was anticipated that the WS-15 would be this delayed, given that the project has been worked on for more than 10 years.

Now, if the WS-15 wasn't delayed, the obvious direction would be to modify the J-20 further to enhance its capabilities. But since the WS-15 is now delayed, it is hard to add things to the J-20 and test the new J-20 because new functionality will likely include greater weight, and the J-20 is already crippled by poor T/W due to the lateness of WS-15.

So what they could try instead, then, would be to set up a J-20B with a TVC-capable Russian engine or Chinese engine. This is something that'd take a long time because you'd need to program the flight control system to support the TVC engine, as well as work out the quirks in the engine's TVC performance. Moreover, you'd want to get operational TVC models in action so they could test its reliability under real world conditions, since Russian-style 3D TVC is notoriously maintenance intensive.

They'd have to do this anyways once the WS-15 is ready, and when they're working with the WS-15, they'd have to do the work in two stages; first, to make sure the WS-15 is reliable and works without TVC, then second, to integrate the TVC with the J-20, adjust the flight control system, and ensure the TVC's reliability.

The second step doesn't require a mature WS-15 to be ready, it just requires a TVC nozzle with some other engine, Russian or Chinese.

===

In either case, I don't see this as contradicting the known evidence so far. It's simply an unsubstantiated rumor from Minnie Chan, which is plausible, but lacks sufficient evidence.

For me, I don't see the point of discussing it. Minnie Chan said something that seems like good news. But it's Minnie Chan who said it, so we need others to corroborate the claim.
You are right he doesn't explicitly state that the J-20B will use the WS-15 in the Weibo message ... but he has said it elsewhere and the designation "J-20B" is commonly used to denote the J-20s with WS-15s. Regardless of the naming convention, what you are saying might be plausible if the pictures of recent J-20 production types had TVC systems equipped. And yet there is no such system in those images. The pictures we have of the J-20 production types with Taihangs completely contradict what Minnie Chan has to say ... not to mention we haven't had a single credible rumor stating current J-20 production types are equipped with TVC systems. As @ougoah stated, the TVC system be incorporated with the WS-15.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
And that's why I'm suggesting that the J-20A and J-20B are two separate things. The J-20A's job would be to do normal line fighting, to be the backbone of the PLAAF's J-20 fleet while they're still waiting for the WS-15. The J-20B, on the other hand, would be a LRIP effort to conduct TVC research and integration for the eventual WS-15 model.

As I've said before, TVC integration takes time, and you can either wait for the WS-15 before doing the integration and research work on TVC, or you can do the integration and research work first, then backconvert it to support the WS-15 once the WS-15 comes up.

This could explain it. If they've somehow adjusted production to accommodate two distinct J-20 lines - the conventional one and the low volume TVC research one. Still doubt it though but more plausible than converting the entire chain to an AL-31/41 J-20 again lol.
 

Inst

Captain
So you think it's possible the J-20B can be under mass production using an AL-41 TVC version similar to the one used on the Su-35 and Su-57 (before the IZD.30 is ready around 2025 as reported by Russians)? It's a possibility but really, really doubt this. About as likely as PLAAF buying another 100 Su-35s.

The J-20 has been using WS-10 engines since 2019. WS-10 TVC has been incorporated on a J-10 and probably tested on a J-20. TVC is NOT important at all especially for a stealth fighter. At most it allows for fewer and less dramatic control surface deflections which can sometimes help preserve VLO but most of the time these quick surface deflections show up for a split second and contrary to popular online myths, they don't spike RCS that much. It's so simple. Large surfaces may reflect radio energy back to the source and the entirety of a moving or non-moving surface can just happen to be in maximum reflection position at any arbitrary point in time. This applies to F-22, B-2, F-117 etc ... again surface deflections don't harm stealth that much simply because it's over very quickly and the spikes are still not going to be picked up significantly more frequently than the rest of the frame.

Unless the WS-10 TVC for some odd reason can't be fitted or used on the J-20 and the AL-41's can. But why would that be the case? They're nozzle length are not that dissimilar? Where is this arrangement issue you are talking about?

As I've said, it's a question of development speed. AL-31FP and AL-41-1S TVC are mature. When something goes wrong with the AL-31FP / AL-41-1S, you know it's likely the fault of the flight control system integration. When something goes wrong with a WS-10X using a TVC nozzle, it's hard to tell whether it's the flight control system integration or it's the TVC nozzle itself that's failed.

Starting with Russian TVC and Chinese airframes instead of being wholly Chinese the entire way is potentially an easier way to do TVC development; once the flight control system integration is mature for Russian TVC engines, THEN you switch to Chinese TVC engines and make sure the Chinese TVC works.
 

Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
As I've said, it's a question of development speed. AL-31FP and AL-41-1S TVC are mature. When something goes wrong with the AL-31FP / AL-41-1S, you know it's likely the fault of the flight control system integration. When something goes wrong with a WS-10X using a TVC nozzle, it's hard to tell whether it's the flight control system integration or it's the TVC nozzle itself that's failed.

Starting with Russian TVC and Chinese airframes instead of being wholly Chinese the entire way is potentially an easier way to do TVC development; once the flight control system integration is mature for Russian TVC engines, THEN you switch to Chinese TVC engines and make sure the Chinese TVC works.
There is nothing to indicate that China purchased Russian engines with TVC (AL-31FP or the AL-41). This is just crazy speculation coming from an author whose claims have been debunked many times before.
 

Inst

Captain
There is nothing to indicate that China purchased Russian engines with TVC (AL-31FP or the AL-41). This is just crazy speculation coming from an author whose claims have been debunked many times before.

AL-41-1S spares for the Su-35.

But as I've said before, it's unsubstantiated rumor courtesy Minnie Chan. I'm just arguing that she's not tautologically wrong this time, it's just that we have no evidence from insiders or the PLA that what she says is true. The value of the claim is to have alert ears for J-20 TVC rumors, but otherwise, it doesn't really have discussion value.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
As I've said, it's a question of development speed. AL-31FP and AL-41-1S TVC are mature. When something goes wrong with the AL-31FP / AL-41-1S, you know it's likely the fault of the flight control system integration. When something goes wrong with a WS-10X using a TVC nozzle, it's hard to tell whether it's the flight control system integration or it's the TVC nozzle itself that's failed.

Starting with Russian TVC and Chinese airframes instead of being wholly Chinese the entire way is potentially an easier way to do TVC development; once the flight control system integration is mature for Russian TVC engines, THEN you switch to Chinese TVC engines and make sure the Chinese TVC works.

They may be mature TVC engines now BUT to incorporate them with J-20 requires a lot of work. The same amount of work to integrating WS-10 TVC. So given the limits of what you can choose, would the PLAAF choose to do the work integrating the more mature foreign engine or use that time and effort integrating the WS-10? Assuming they can only choose one due to limits on what you can realisitically afford to do, I'd wager PLAAF would go with the WS-10 which is now a mature engine but the TVC itself may be unproven. Su-35 capabilities with the TVC does not necessarily carry over. It's not like they can say hey look the Su-35 performs marvelously with TVC so the same TVC engine on a J-20 must allow the J-20 to do the same. Nope.

Therefore it's far more likely the PLAAF will choose the WS-10 TVC engine over a Russian one since the TVC component itself can be perfected and of the two engines themselves, the WS-10 has superior lifespan and MTBO.
 
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