J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII


Inst

Senior Member
I'm sorry but Minnie Chan literally claimed that the J-20B just entered mass production with a thrust vectoring AL-31?
Logically speaking, let us say the claim contains components A, B, and C. If component B is wrong, then the claim is wrong, which you have noted. But it doesn't imply that components A and C are necessarily wrong as well.

The claim that I'm paying attention to from Minnie Chan is that there's a J-20B which is intended to be a J-20A with TVC nozzles attached and integrated into the flight control system, and that the J-20B is going to be mass produced.

I'm treating this not as blatantly wrong, as other posters claim here, but as a plausible claim from a low-reliability source that needs further substantiation.

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I also don't see that it can be assumed that the Chinese aren't running AL-31F engines on the J-20B, even though the WS-10B is considered ready. If you look at the rear design for the J-20, the J-20 has a significant problem in that its nozzle placement isn't optimal for TVC, not because the nozzles are adjacent, but because the nozzles are recessed by the rear ECM pylons.

The WS-10 engine, compared to the AL-31F, as can be seen on this CJDBY thread:

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is shallower and shorter than the AL-31F. This means that there needs to be substantial modification to move the nozzles further outward from the main body. Since the AL-31F engine, in contrast, is longer, there is less modification needed to move the nozzles outward.

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In either case, it's a goddamn Minnie Chan claim. Plausible, yes, but needs further substantiation. Simply because it comes from her doesn't mean it's right or wrong, it just means it's unreliable and requires further evidence.
 
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ougoah

Captain
Registered Member
ok to help change topic from Minnie Chan can someone here provide RCS (official or otherwise) of F22 vs F35 vs J-20?
lol that's not how it works. For instance, what angle are you talking about? RCS varies quite dramatically. Plus the numbers for F-22 and F-35 are certainly not accurate and the "official" numbers don't specify angle.
 

ougoah

Captain
Registered Member
How come SCMP is still calling her an expert? The author is known to be ignorant about Chinese military?

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Because the SCMP is now owned by Alibaba and feeds a lot of iffy material. It ranges between being outspokenly anti-China to neutral to pro-China. Full of military disinfo and generally just trash, unreliable publication no matter how you look at it objectively. There may be 1 accurate, objective article out of a dozen. The rest are almost entirely politically motivated but funnily presenting both sides. It's just there to confuse and play with the weak minded old readers who praised its anti-China stance. Now that it's got some links to the CCP, they're using it to troll them on occasion. That's how you should treat fools.
 

KFX

New Member
Registered Member
Logically speaking, let us say the claim contains components A, B, and C. If component B is wrong, then the claim is wrong, which you have noted. But it doesn't imply that components A and C are necessarily wrong as well.

The claim that I'm paying attention to from Minnie Chan is that there's a J-20B which is intended to be a J-20A with TVC nozzles attached and integrated into the flight control system, and that the J-20B is going to be mass produced.

I'm treating this not as blatantly wrong, as other posters claim here, but as a plausible claim from a low-reliability source that needs further substantiation.

===

I also don't see that it can be assumed that the Chinese aren't running AL-31F engines on the J-20B, even though the WS-10B is considered ready. If you look at the rear design for the J-20, the J-20 has a significant problem in that its nozzle placement isn't optimal for TVC, not because the nozzles are adjacent, but because the nozzles are recessed by the rear ECM pylons.

The WS-10 engine, compared to the AL-31F, as can be seen on this CJDBY thread:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

is shallower and shorter than the AL-31F. This means that there needs to be substantial modification to move the nozzles further outward from the main body. Since the AL-31F engine, in contrast, is longer, there is less modification needed to move the nozzles outward.

===

In either case, it's a goddamn Minnie Chan claim. Plausible, yes, but needs further substantiation. Simply because it comes from her doesn't mean it's right or wrong, it just means it's unreliable and requires further evidence.
I'm with Inst on this. We need (a lot) more verification. Thrust vectoring, even in just two dimensions, would be of great benefit to the the J-20. The idea that the Chinese would use AL-31F for this, however, seems bizarre, as does entering "mass production" with a Russian engine, especially given that China appears to be making progress on the engine front, as evidenced by J-10B TVC. If nothing else, the fact that we've had a few pages of posts going back and forth about a dubious article highlights the dearth of credible information on the J-20 programme.
 

Figaro

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm with Inst on this. We need (a lot) more verification. Thrust vectoring, even in just two dimensions, would be of great benefit to the the J-20. The idea that the Chinese would use AL-31F for this, however, seems bizarre, as does entering "mass production" with a Russian engine, especially given that China appears to be making progress on the engine front, as evidenced by J-10B TVC.
Dude, the premise of @Inst's argument is wrong because the SCMP article he cited is wrong. The J-20 "B" is not entering production currently with thrust vectoring AL-31s. We have many photos of production J-20s with WS-10X non-TVC engines. As for the TVC, the Chinese are doing three dimensional, not two dimensional thrust vectoring (check out the Zhuhai 2018 show) ... but this will system will only appear on the real J-20B alongside the WS-15.
If nothing else, the fact that we've had a few pages of posts going back and forth about a dubious article highlights the dearth of credible information on the J-20 programme.
All our credible information regarding the J-20 comes from either official sources (which are very rare) or via rumors from credible sources in Chinese military forums/social media. Of course there will be a dearth of credible information on the J-20 if you look on mainstream media (i.e. SCMP, National Interest, etc).
 
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Inst

Senior Member
Dude, the premise of @Inst's argument is wrong because the SCMP article he cited is wrong. The J-20 "B" is not entering production currently with thrust vectoring AL-31s. We have many photos of production J-20s with WS-10X non-TVC engines. As for the TVC, the Chinese are doing three dimensional, not two dimensional thrust vectoring (check out the Zhuhai 2018 show) ... but this will system will only appear on the J-20B alongside the WS-15.
Thing is, the AL-31F already has variants with functional TVC, whereas the Chinese have yet to debut a mass-production WS-10B with TVC nozzle. The J-10C tech demonstrator is there, of course, but it requires time to iron out the kinks and prove reliability.

The simplest and easiest way to get a J-20 with TVC up is just to buy an AL-31FP or AL-41-1S and configure the flight control system to support it. As you can see, the Russians are even more broke than before Ukraine with coronavirus having shut down their economy, so they're even more desperate and more amenable to transfer of technology deals.

And before you say that Russian engines preclude mass production, consider that the J-10 was on AL-31FN for many many years, and entered mass production with Russian engines. The Chinese already have AL-41-1S via the Su-35S engine.

So the claim that there exists a J-20B with TVC going into mass production is not implausible, but lacks substantial evidence due to Minnie Chan's standard of reporting.

That doesn't make it wrong, it just makes it unproven.

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I just want to say, for the J-20 project, the worst possible news has already arrived. The WS-15, according to our leaks and the engine production schedule for a listed Chinese engine manufacturer, is apparently going to be very very late, and people are now trying to defend the WS-10-equipped J-20 as first-tier. So I don't see why using Russian engines for TVC might be seen as a sign of bad news, and the introduction of TVC on the J-20 with Russian engines could even be seen as good news, since the capability of the J-20 is now enhanced.

Once again, of course, this is unsubstantiated rumor courtesy Minnie Chan.
 

KFX

New Member
Registered Member
Dude, the premise of @Inst's argument is wrong because the SCMP article he cited is wrong. The J-20 "B" is not entering production currently with thrust vectoring AL-31s. We have many photos of production J-20s with WS-10X non-TVC engines. As for the TVC, the Chinese are doing three dimensional, not two dimensional thrust vectoring (check out the Zhuhai 2018 show) ... but this will system will only appear on the J-20B alongside the WS-15.

All our credible information regarding the J-20 comes from either official sources (which are very rare) or via rumors from credible sources in Chinese military forums/social media. Of course there will be a dearth of credible information on the J-20 if you look on mainstream media (i.e. SCMP, National Interest, etc).
It's too soon for you, or anyone in this forum, to confidently state the focus of China's thrust vectoring efforts. These "official sources" you cite can be manipulated, as can these "credible sources" on Chinese social media. Dude: we're dealing with China.
 

Figaro

Junior Member
Registered Member
Logically speaking, let us say the claim contains components A, B, and C. If component B is wrong, then the claim is wrong, which you have noted. But it doesn't imply that components A and C are necessarily wrong as well.

The claim that I'm paying attention to from Minnie Chan is that there's a J-20B which is intended to be a J-20A with TVC nozzles attached and integrated into the flight control system, and that the J-20B is going to be mass produced.

I'm treating this not as blatantly wrong, as other posters claim here, but as a plausible claim from a low-reliability source that needs further substantiation.

===

I also don't see that it can be assumed that the Chinese aren't running AL-31F engines on the J-20B, even though the WS-10B is considered ready. If you look at the rear design for the J-20, the J-20 has a significant problem in that its nozzle placement isn't optimal for TVC, not because the nozzles are adjacent, but because the nozzles are recessed by the rear ECM pylons.

The WS-10 engine, compared to the AL-31F, as can be seen on this CJDBY thread:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

is shallower and shorter than the AL-31F. This means that there needs to be substantial modification to move the nozzles further outward from the main body. Since the AL-31F engine, in contrast, is longer, there is less modification needed to move the nozzles outward.

===

In either case, it's a goddamn Minnie Chan claim. Plausible, yes, but needs further substantiation. Simply because it comes from her doesn't mean it's right or wrong, it just means it's unreliable and requires further evidence.
This literally makes no sense at all. For the past year, we have been receiving pictures of J-20s in yellow primer with the WS-10X without thrust vectoring. Then all of a sudden, Minnie Chan goes on to rave about how J-20s with thrust vectoring AL-31s are going into mass production. Does this make any sense to you given the pictures we've been seeing? The designation is also completely wrong as well ... the J-20Bs should be referring to those with the WS-15s (which have the TVC ability). Here is a snippet from Pupu, who confirmed that the J-20B will have thrust vectoring on Weibo.
Screen Shot 2020-07-13 at 1.57.53 AM.png
 

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