I really don't know why @Inst spawns such ridiculous theories out of a source which basically has zero reputation. His statements belong in the category of fallacies. The discussion should have stopped upon reading the name "Minnie Chan."
J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
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That's why I'm saying integrating TVC into the J-20 early makes sense if the WS-15 project is so logjammed.
Even in 2026 they're only expecting to produce 3-5 WS-15 a year. I'd love for the WS-15 to be available early, but it seems the usual Chinese engine development troubles came up.
I'm sorry but this source is a corporate public disclosure if I'm not mistaken. The author IIRC works in the financial sector and doesn't have access to any of this inside information. Just use your common sense, would the PLAAF/AVIC ever allow such classified production figures to be released in a public financial disclosure, especially when the engine is still in the testing phase?
This source is not reliable.
Five six years isn't that long and even when it's ready, WS-15 initial production will be slow for good reason and there'll be teething issues. Ideally the J-20 would have come out with the WS-15 but we've got a F-14 interim engine situation happening. Actually quite common. Migs and Sukhois had similar interims just not so long. There is a chance WS-15 will take much longer than 5 years. That's why I gave conditions. There's also the slimmest of chances that the engineers working on TVC integration are being asked to do a practice run/study with AL-31/41 or WS-10 for whatever reason.
I had originally hoped that the J-20 would have been available in its B format with WS-15 by 2020 or 2022. My experience with Minnie Chan was that I took seriously a claim by her that the WS-15 would have been flying at Zhuhai a few years back. That, unfortunately, did not bear fruit and I am assuming the WS-15 project is extremely delayed right now, including Gongke saying in 2018 it'd be at least 3 years before you see a WS-15.
The WS-15 project being extremely delayed has two implications:
-First, if the Chinese want to keep developing the J-20 platform beyond its interim capability, they'll likely end up importing Russian engines for the increased thrust.
-Second, if the Chinese want to explore how the J-20 platform performs with TVC, and how the J-20 can be developed once TVC is mature, they'd likely end up stuffing WS-10 or AL-31 TVC on a LRIP or technology development series of J-20s.
So yeah, I'm assuming the TVC engineers will be stuck doing a practice run with current generation engines to make sure that when the WS-15 arrives, they can integrate it into the J-20 FCS as quickly as possible.
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No, not WE ... only @Inst is once again defending her fir the sake of whatever??
I agree that nothing is confirmed but it is a question of a probabilities: how likely is that Minnie is simply wrong again or how likely is it that CAC produces a batch of AL-31FN powered J-20s, then a batch of WS-10C powered J-20As only to return then to a TVC-fitted AL-31FXversion? ... and what is more likely?
I don't think it's either likely or unlikely. In any case, my point still stands, this is an unsubstantiated rumor from Minnie Chan again and we have little reason to take it seriously unless someone else confirms it.
So everyone agrees then... more likely to be false rumors spread for whatever purpose. Unless the WS-15 is far off and PLAAF wants the TVC integrators to get some interim TVC on just to evaluate its performance so that the WS-15 TVC can be done faster and possibly benefit from the lessons learned during the interim TVC studies.
There are real benefits to having TVC, however. The main benefit is that you can lock all your control surfaces and rely only on TVC to maneuver. By locking your control surfaces, your stealth increases because deflection of control surfaces no longer ruins your RCS.
Likewise, TVC is considered ideal for supersonic maneuverability, since control surfaces have less control authority at speed, while TVC continues to retain almost 100% of its authority.
On the other hand, we're told that the J-20 is excellent as a maneuverable fighter in the supersonic realm, so TVC might be wholly unnecessary.
In an ideal case, it would be good if WS-10X TVC J-20s become standard by 2022, assuming the WS-15 isn't ready by then.
Likewise, TVC is considered ideal for supersonic maneuverability, since control surfaces have less control authority at speed, while TVC continues to retain almost 100% of its authority.
On the other hand, we're told that the J-20 is excellent as a maneuverable fighter in the supersonic realm, so TVC might be wholly unnecessary.
In an ideal case, it would be good if WS-10X TVC J-20s become standard by 2022, assuming the WS-15 isn't ready by then.
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