Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Status
Not open for further replies.
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Temstar said:
Yeah okay, let's get the topic back on track a bit.

Yesterday's Guanqi and Monday's guancha livestream from Shilao and Ayi touched on this. Now that the exercise is over and we have US throwing the first punch and China punching right back harder we would normally expect both to go back to their corner of the ring and wait for next round. However the US after getting punched unexpected in the month doesn't seem to want to do this and seem to want to continue this round of the crisis with another counter move of their own. Judging from all the noise they're making about FONOP Ayi has come up with three possible response USN might take in the near future:

weak response: sail a noncombat ship from USNS through the strait
moderate response: sail an AB or a Tico through the strait
strong response: sail the USS Ronald Reagan through the strait ala 1996

The weak response is so weak that I can't see even DPP media can spin that as as win.

Ayi judged the strong response to also be unlikely - sailing the carrier through the death trap that is the strait is a big gamble comparable to PLAAF sending manned aircraft over the main island - you are basically risking the lives of your soldiers on a bet that the other guy won't take this opportunity to open fire. Only in this case a carrier is much more higher value target than a fighter. Should USN attempt to do this PLAN could do all sorts of crazy thing like racing Liaoning and Shandong to the strait and block both ends physically trapping the carrier in the middle.

The moderate response is therefore the most likely. But given that sort of FONOP is also the status quo it seems hard to try to sell it as a win. And in any case PLAN could just dog pile that ship and make it look like a walk of shame by numbers.

Could anyone thing of any other possible response USN could take to recover some face?
Click to expand...
What US ships sailed through the straits a month ago?

Now that the dust has settled I think the Chinese response was appropriate. It has lead to a permanent change to the status quo. We won't hear about Taiwanese complaining about their ADIZ, from now on they'll only complain about actual airspace intrusions. With permanent drills/presence around Taiwan, their outlying islands are effectively gone.

Not invading Taiwan also has its pros, it shows China is still prepared to solve issues with Taiwan diplomatically (for now).

Other than the cross strait transit, I think the next US provocation will be diplomatic. Maybe they'll reanimate the arms deal or try to push through the Taiwan legislation they put on ice. More likely they'll continue getting their puppet states to send delegates to Taiwan.
 
A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Abominable said:
What US ships sailed through the straits a month ago?

Now that the dust has settled I think the Chinese response was appropriate. It has lead to a permanent change to the status quo. We won't hear about Taiwanese complaining about their ADIZ, from now on they'll only complain about actual airspace intrusions. With permanent drills/presence around Taiwan, their outlying islands are effectively gone.

Not invading Taiwan also has its pros, it shows China is still prepared to solve issues with Taiwan diplomatically (for now).

Other than the cross strait transit, I think the next US provocation will be diplomatic. Maybe they'll reanimate the arms deal or try to push through the Taiwan legislation they put on ice. More likely they'll continue getting their puppet states to send delegates to Taiwan.
Click to expand...
@Abominable China want to squeeze the Taiwanese, will it work, the problem I saw is Tsai is a lesbian...lol. I'm seeing a pattern, most of the agent or personality that the US use in its Colored Revolution are women. In our case Ms Robredo who lost the recent election, the optics are profound cause the narrative is we Chinese look down on women thus her fight is about Chinese culture itself.
 
C

Chevalier

Senior Member
Registered Member
I've been thinking about this for the past couple of weeks and have come to some conclusions, namely that this entire Crisis is driven by US domestic and social upheaval:

  1. US leadership is compromised by anti science magical thinking and religious zealots eg Pompeo, the Mormon presence in the CIA. This prevents any sort of realpolitik; look at how Mearsheimer was roundly pilloried when he simply stated that Ukraine had f'd up by making an enemy out of Russia.
  2. This magical thinking and religious fervour to push for crusading "alliance of democracies" underlines the USG's stated 'all of civilisation response' espoused by Kiron Skinner and other US government officials like the FBI Director Christopher Wray.
  3. Whilst it is in the US geopolitical interest to push for an early war to "contain China", the above points indicate that the USG is committed to a multi-generation war against China, especially if they are portraying it as a civilisation existential dilemma. Forget Thucydides trap, this is a religious-racial Punic Wars of the 21st century.
  4. In line with that 'all of civilisation approach to China', the USG via the CIA has a history of using religion for its geopolitical goals, as Putin said, the US and the West have no principles; for eg during the Vietnam War, the CIA/Pentagon desecrated east asian folk religions with recordings to imitate superstitions:
    Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
    . It's possible, even plausible the a lot of the religious groups in Taiwan that are vehemently anti-China, have sourced funding and resources from the NED (a CIA affiliate). We see this in the anti government protests in Sri Lanka which are spearheaded by american funded christian groups as well as during the 2019 HK Riots.
  5. Going back to point 3), even if AR succeeded with or without US assistance, the US is committed to remaining in Asia since historically and currently, the richest and fastest growing economies are in east Asia, which could form a ready market for USD Hegemony. Many US Elite families owe their wealth to trade in Asia, Harvard was built with Opium money. The absolute ideal for US policymakers was the 1990s where the entire world lived under the Washington Consensus, this is what the USG wants from China and the rest of East Asia if not the world.
  6. Going back to point 1), along with religious hysteria with the new growing religion of "Wokeness" which is comparable to the rise of Christianity in the late stages of the Roman Empire, the USG feels that an external enemy, an 'all of civilisation' enemy could unite US society, and the spoils of that victorious war (in the form of perpetual USD Hegemony and the pillaging of Chinese state assets) could further perpetuate USG legitimacy and social stability.
  7. It may seem like with the previous points, that war is inevitable but one wonders, Is there a path to peace? Can a State founded on wars of genocide and religious zealotry, teetering on the brink of Civil War, borderline hyperinflation find a peaceful solution to its problems as opposed to trying to re-live 1941? It is possible but very improbable.

Conclusions: The US as a state and society needs an external enemy in China, as some posters have put it another way, the US as a polity given its messianic self image cannot perceive itself as not being number 1 (Even amongst Westerners, the US as a leadership cabal like to see themselves as primes inter pares). It's not simply a matter of resources and markets for USD Hegemony.
The US will never leave China 'alone' and will forever attempt to subdue and dominate China because psychologically, the US Elite leadership having once tasted colonialism in east Asia, will always attempt to get that rush again, like a Fentanyl addict.
 
A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Chevalier said:
I've been thinking about this for the past couple of weeks and have come to some conclusions, namely that this entire Crisis is driven by US domestic and social upheaval:

  1. US leadership is compromised by anti science magical thinking and religious zealots eg Pompeo, the Mormon presence in the CIA. This prevents any sort of realpolitik; look at how Mearsheimer was roundly pilloried when he simply stated that Ukraine had f'd up by making an enemy out of Russia.
  2. This magical thinking and religious fervour to push for crusading "alliance of democracies" underlines the USG's stated 'all of civilisation response' espoused by Kiron Skinner and other US government officials like the FBI Director Christopher Wray.
  3. Whilst it is in the US geopolitical interest to push for an early war to "contain China", the above points indicate that the USG is committed to a multi-generation war against China, especially if they are portraying it as a civilisation existential dilemma. Forget Thucydides trap, this is a religious-racial Punic Wars of the 21st century.
  4. In line with that 'all of civilisation approach to China', the USG via the CIA has a history of using religion for its geopolitical goals, as Putin said, the US and the West have no principles; for eg during the Vietnam War, the CIA/Pentagon desecrated east asian folk religions with recordings to imitate superstitions:
    Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
    . It's possible, even plausible the a lot of the religious groups in Taiwan that are vehemently anti-China, have sourced funding and resources from the NED (a CIA affiliate). We see this in the anti government protests in Sri Lanka which are spearheaded by american funded christian groups as well as during the 2019 HK Riots.
  5. Going back to point 3), even if AR succeeded with or without US assistance, the US is committed to remaining in Asia since historically and currently, the richest and fastest growing economies are in east Asia, which could form a ready market for USD Hegemony. Many US Elite families owe their wealth to trade in Asia, Harvard was built with Opium money. The absolute ideal for US policymakers was the 1990s where the entire world lived under the Washington Consensus, this is what the USG wants from China and the rest of East Asia if not the world.
  6. Going back to point 1), along with religious hysteria with the new growing religion of "Wokeness" which is comparable to the rise of Christianity in the late stages of the Roman Empire, the USG feels that an external enemy, an 'all of civilisation' enemy could unite US society, and the spoils of that victorious war (in the form of perpetual USD Hegemony and the pillaging of Chinese state assets) could further perpetuate USG legitimacy and social stability.
  7. It may seem like with the previous points, that war is inevitable but one wonders, Is there a path to peace? Can a State founded on wars of genocide and religious zealotry, teetering on the brink of Civil War, borderline hyperinflation find a peaceful solution to its problems as opposed to trying to re-live 1941? It is possible but very improbable.

Conclusions: The US as a state and society needs an external enemy in China, as some posters have put it another way, the US as a polity given its messianic self image cannot perceive itself as not being number 1 (Even amongst Westerners, the US as a leadership cabal like to see themselves as primes inter pares). It's not simply a matter of resources and markets for USD Hegemony.
The US will never leave China 'alone' and will forever attempt to subdue and dominate China because psychologically, the US Elite leadership having once tasted colonialism in east Asia, will always attempt to get that rush again, like a Fentanyl addict.
Click to expand...
@Chevalier bro there is a Chinese proverbs "A wise Man makes his own Decisions, an Ignorant Man Follow Public Opinion" that's Brandon for you BUT American society need a complete overhaul cause "A Bad System Can Destroy Good People".
 
Y

yrydzd

Banned Idiot
Registered Member
Chevalier said:
I've been thinking about this for the past couple of weeks and have come to some conclusions, namely that this entire Crisis is driven by US domestic and social upheaval:

  1. US leadership is compromised by anti science magical thinking and religious zealots eg Pompeo, the Mormon presence in the CIA. This prevents any sort of realpolitik; look at how Mearsheimer was roundly pilloried when he simply stated that Ukraine had f'd up by making an enemy out of Russia.
  2. This magical thinking and religious fervour to push for crusading "alliance of democracies" underlines the USG's stated 'all of civilisation response' espoused by Kiron Skinner and other US government officials like the FBI Director Christopher Wray.
  3. Whilst it is in the US geopolitical interest to push for an early war to "contain China", the above points indicate that the USG is committed to a multi-generation war against China, especially if they are portraying it as a civilisation existential dilemma. Forget Thucydides trap, this is a religious-racial Punic Wars of the 21st century.
  4. In line with that 'all of civilisation approach to China', the USG via the CIA has a history of using religion for its geopolitical goals, as Putin said, the US and the West have no principles; for eg during the Vietnam War, the CIA/Pentagon desecrated east asian folk religions with recordings to imitate superstitions:
    Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
    . It's possible, even plausible the a lot of the religious groups in Taiwan that are vehemently anti-China, have sourced funding and resources from the NED (a CIA affiliate). We see this in the anti government protests in Sri Lanka which are spearheaded by american funded christian groups as well as during the 2019 HK Riots.
  5. Going back to point 3), even if AR succeeded with or without US assistance, the US is committed to remaining in Asia since historically and currently, the richest and fastest growing economies are in east Asia, which could form a ready market for USD Hegemony. Many US Elite families owe their wealth to trade in Asia, Harvard was built with Opium money. The absolute ideal for US policymakers was the 1990s where the entire world lived under the Washington Consensus, this is what the USG wants from China and the rest of East Asia if not the world.
  6. Going back to point 1), along with religious hysteria with the new growing religion of "Wokeness" which is comparable to the rise of Christianity in the late stages of the Roman Empire, the USG feels that an external enemy, an 'all of civilisation' enemy could unite US society, and the spoils of that victorious war (in the form of perpetual USD Hegemony and the pillaging of Chinese state assets) could further perpetuate USG legitimacy and social stability.
  7. It may seem like with the previous points, that war is inevitable but one wonders, Is there a path to peace? Can a State founded on wars of genocide and religious zealotry, teetering on the brink of Civil War, borderline hyperinflation find a peaceful solution to its problems as opposed to trying to re-live 1941? It is possible but very improbable.

Conclusions: The US as a state and society needs an external enemy in China, as some posters have put it another way, the US as a polity given its messianic self image cannot perceive itself as not being number 1 (Even amongst Westerners, the US as a leadership cabal like to see themselves as primes inter pares). It's not simply a matter of resources and markets for USD Hegemony.
The US will never leave China 'alone' and will forever attempt to subdue and dominate China because psychologically, the US Elite leadership having once tasted colonialism in east Asia, will always attempt to get that rush again, like a Fentanyl addict.
Click to expand...

All of this would be possibe if the US is a nation state. But in reality, the US is just a loose confederation of different tribes with different interests. People immigrate to the US because it is the wealthies country in the world, not because they love the country and would sacrifice themselves to "make America great again". They'll just leave for another one when America is not so great.

This is why I don't see the US can come up with any generation-length plan, because they aren't even sure they are still American after a couple of generations. Plan for now, and if it didn't work out then screw you losers, I'm off the boat.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top