Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Chevalier

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All of this would be possibe if the US is a nation state. But in reality, the US is just a loose confederation of different tribes with different interests. People immigrate to the US because it is the wealthies country in the world, not because they love the country and would sacrifice themselves to "make America great again". They'll just leave for another one when America is not so great.

This is why I don't see the US can come up with any generation-length plan, because they aren't even sure they are still American after a couple of generations. Plan for now, and if it didn't work out then screw you losers, I'm off the boat.
Before the modern era and the concept of a nation state, people were united not by polity but as a tribal entity even within empires, that's why medieval laws were sometimes religious and ethnic specific.
In the modern era, this habit has not changed in terms of in-group, out-group dynamics. You see this when a englishman can move to the United States and receive promotions and access that a 3rd generation Chinese American would never receive. Despite its advertisement of equality before the law and society, the United States is extremely race conscious and tribal identities are much more entrenched than say, Australia.

In fact, i remember when the Ukraine war started, many American commentators seemed more upset that this was happening to a white people country as opposed to a more acceptable conflict in the Taiwan Strait. For that reason, the War Party in the US is framing the Taiwan issue as a 'all of society' conflict, where China has to lose if you, Joe American want to enjoy your privileges around the world.
 

Strangelove

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Also, "Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said she had ordered officials to call in ambassador Zheng Zeguang to explain his country's actions in recent days ..."

Oh to be a fly on the wall for that embarrassment of the UK (she might actually be the PM soon!).

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That is actually Liz Truss hiding behind the flag!


There's no need to explain anything, tell them to read the Global Times and get educated.
 

siegecrossbow

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Minm

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Yeah okay, let's get the topic back on track a bit.

Yesterday's Guanqi and Monday's guancha livestream from Shilao and Ayi touched on this. Now that the exercise is over and we have US throwing the first punch and China punching right back harder we would normally expect both to go back to their corner of the ring and wait for next round. However the US after getting punched unexpected in the month doesn't seem to want to do this and seem to want to continue this round of the crisis with another counter move of their own. Judging from all the noise they're making about FONOP Ayi has come up with three possible response USN might take in the near future:

weak response: sail a noncombat ship from USNS through the strait
moderate response: sail an AB or a Tico through the strait
strong response: sail the USS Ronald Reagan through the strait ala 1996

The weak response is so weak that I can't see even DPP media can spin that as as win.

Ayi judged the strong response to also be unlikely - sailing the carrier through the death trap that is the strait is a big gamble comparable to PLAAF sending manned aircraft over the main island - you are basically risking the lives of your soldiers on a bet that the other guy won't take this opportunity to open fire. Only in this case a carrier is much more higher value target than a fighter. Should USN attempt to do this PLAN could do all sorts of crazy thing like racing Liaoning and Shandong to the strait and block both ends physically trapping the carrier in the middle.

The moderate response is therefore the most likely. But given that sort of FONOP is also the status quo it seems hard to try to sell it as a win. And in any case PLAN could just dog pile that ship and make it look like a walk of shame by numbers.

Could anyone thing of any other possible response USN could take to recover some face?
The carrier sailing through the straits would actually be perfect for China. It would be seen as an aggression by the international community, giving China the excuse for more serious responses. And as long as the carrier is so close to the mainland, it's essentially held hostage. That's the perfect timing for manned flights over Taipei. The ROC fighters will be ordered by their superiors in Washington that they can't shoot at the PLA and put the carrier at risk. By the time the Americans are gone, manned overflights will be normalised
 

FairAndUnbiased

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Yeah okay, let's get the topic back on track a bit.

Yesterday's Guanqi and Monday's guancha livestream from Shilao and Ayi touched on this. Now that the exercise is over and we have US throwing the first punch and China punching right back harder we would normally expect both to go back to their corner of the ring and wait for next round. However the US after getting punched unexpected in the month doesn't seem to want to do this and seem to want to continue this round of the crisis with another counter move of their own. Judging from all the noise they're making about FONOP Ayi has come up with three possible response USN might take in the near future:

weak response: sail a noncombat ship from USNS through the strait
moderate response: sail an AB or a Tico through the strait
strong response: sail the USS Ronald Reagan through the strait ala 1996

The weak response is so weak that I can't see even DPP media can spin that as as win.

Ayi judged the strong response to also be unlikely - sailing the carrier through the death trap that is the strait is a big gamble comparable to PLAAF sending manned aircraft over the main island - you are basically risking the lives of your soldiers on a bet that the other guy won't take this opportunity to open fire. Only in this case a carrier is much more higher value target than a fighter. Should USN attempt to do this PLAN could do all sorts of crazy thing like racing Liaoning and Shandong to the strait and block both ends physically trapping the carrier in the middle.

The moderate response is therefore the most likely. But given that sort of FONOP is also the status quo it seems hard to try to sell it as a win. And in any case PLAN could just dog pile that ship and make it look like a walk of shame by numbers.

Could anyone thing of any other possible response USN could take to recover some face?
if a carrier sails through the straits, I think 2 things can happen:

1. buzz the carrier with cheap drones, not overflying it, but keeping within 1-2 km. This is, of course to "ensure safe navigation by watching for seaborne obstacles". It may incidentally make it unsafe to conduct air ops but that is purely incidental to the primary aim of ensuring safe navigation.

2. escort it with a bunch of frigates and destroyers as well to "provide security".
 

Chevalier

Senior Member
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I said it would be even better to do so. I did not say I have a plan for it. I don't know how or how fast it should be done and I don't think it's time yet to seriously entertain this. After all, before we come to this bridge, Taiwan has to be tamed. And before the dog is tamed, his master must be subdued. By the time China overtakes the US and American threats of military action over the ROC become a joke to the world, we can begin to piece together the reunification plan. At that time, we will need to analyze our urbanization status and relocation technology to approach this question. Due to the immense difficulty, if relocation efforts are undertaken they will most likely be partial relocation to dilute the local population or we may even settle entirely for installing a new government without mandatory relocation because it's... cruel to some.
I can understand the anger and frustration my compatriots across the Straits feel with the current Tsai regime, however i would not recommend Stalinist relocation; even after Stalinism, many russians who were relocated to Siberia returned to their homes in european Russia and such displacement will only engender anger by taiwanese compatriots towards the mainland. I personally would not appreciate having my family and ancestral lands from the Qing Dynasty being confiscated and being forced to relocate to say Inner Mongolia, and the DPP supporters of my family would become more rabid than they already are.

Taking the model of Reconciliation after the American Civil War, the Southerners were allowed to maintain key positions after victory, but the die hard CSA types were hunted. No displacement occurred, however in true American fashion, the North simply redirected Southern animosity away from the Northerners and "carpet baggers" towards the negros and to the native americans out West. This is not ideal for China in the event of reunification, unless the 'all of civilisations' Punic wars of the Pacific were to occur.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

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Taking the model of Reconciliation after the American Civil War, the Southerners were allowed to maintain key positions after victory, but the die hard CSA types were hunted. No displacement occurred, however in true American fashion, the North simply redirected Southern animosity away from the Northerners and "carpet baggers" towards the negros and to the native americans out West. This is not ideal for China in the event of reunification, unless the 'all of civilisations' Punic wars of the Pacific were to occur.
Quick correction: Yes and no. While it is true that the politically active CSA leadership was dismantled, the elites of the South weren’t touched. As a matter of fact, the Southern elites were the ones responsible for propagating the “Lost Cause” myth and the current worship of the Confederacy within the South itself. From hindsight, this was probably the worst decision the Union had ever made. If anything, after a hypothetical reunification victory, the CPC should fundamentally wipe out any traces of Taiwan’s rich and political elite and redistribute their wealth to the people.
 
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