Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Lol your assertion is ridiculous when the evidence to counter your thesis has already failed to provide support to the following: A competent counter point media anti-western narrative would made wonders on minimizing the soft power damage China is taking. Yet, as @FairAndUnbiased has amply demonstrated that assertion is frankly evidence free, and the fact that you seem to insist that RT and other Russian led media are banned is the supposed proof of their effectiveness. How can you say that so confidently?

Isn’t the threshold of a supposed effective propaganda media tool is the ability to convince enough people on the other side not only the validity of your argument, but also accepting the values, cultural, religious etc. to want to side with you (us) and go against their own establishment media and most importantly their government?

Has this scenario produced the desired or intended investments in the west by Russia? Nope. Has the media propaganda waged by Russia helped them withstand the economic assault from SWIFT, to confiscations of national and private assets, freezing their accounts? NOPE.

So please tell us again, how and why are you calling the Russian propaganda a win and China's efforts as losers.
RT is effective in what it was created for, it's a descendent of USSR era agitprop. Its job is to incite discord and unrest in the west. It isn't to push the Russian narrative, although it's sort of taken on that role in the Ukraine conflict. During the COVID pandemic they were pushing anti-vax narratives, that's clearly not a Russian policy. Even today if you look on their website only 2-3 articles are typically about the Ukraine war and the rest is unrelated.

For what it is I'd say it's pretty effective. Their heyday was during the Iraq war when it came close to being mainstream in the UK....it was also not really anti-west at that point. They were a declining force since then although since the ban they've had a surge in popularity.

Ultimately whether the USSR or Russia they were fighting a losing battle so needed agitprop to balance the scales. China is not in that position.
 

dasCKD

New Member
Registered Member
I don't buy your line of argument because it ignores the many fundamental reasons as to why such an idea while laudable isn't the panacea you insist it to be.
Honestly, I'm getting tired with this. Propaganda isn't a panacea. Propaganda alone isn't enough to change reality, as Russia is now learning in Ukraine. Propaganda is like a fighter jet or a destroyer or a strong economy. It's another tool. It's jus that for the price of one extra J-20, China could be building something that could do far more damage to the American morale, warfighting capability, public willingness to fund America's MIC, and a dozen other vectors of American power than said J-20 would be able to ever hope to do on its own. The fact that I'm getting so much pushback on this is disheartening. It means that more young Chinese men and women, those that could have gone to become doctors or engineers or scientists or leaders, will die if Taiwan goes hot because China hasn't taken even the simple and basic steps towards neutering this vector of American power and morale.
 

horse

Major
Registered Member
So China's cooperation with the US on fentanyl is purely out of good will and has no real and immediate benefit to China.

It is very strange this whole fentanyl trade.

Apparently fentanly comes only from China, and people in America and Canada, buy it directly or indirectly from the Chinese pharmaceutical company online, via the dark web, and they pay them in bitcoin.

Then they just receive the package in the mail.

That raises a few interesting questions. The dark web many people believe is a CIA thing. But this fentanly trade disproves that.

I remember reading no one in the news ever got caught buying fentanly delivered by mail from China.


Since this is illegal drug trade, China was willing to help.

However, since China started cracking down, what the dealers did was stop buying fentanly from America, but buy it from Mexico. Once the fentanly goes there, and there are no restrictions, then the fentanly gets into America then Canada via the regular smuggling channels.

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horse

Major
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It is very strange this whole fentanyl trade.

Oh, wow ... I did not realize that this was the Taiwan crisis thread, I thought it was that breaking news thread.

Guess these exercises are really over, and the new normal is here with us.

How tight they want to do these blockade maneuvers, we will see.

Next blow up should be a weapons shipment to Taiwan.

Not that the Taiwan army will do much with it.

Seems to me that with the two tribes over there, the green tribe will never fight for it, and the blue tribe will not fight on behalf of the green tribe who they hate. In the end, no one does anything, except empty gestures to Taiwan's defense commitments.

Got to wonder about the long run, whether the Americans are willing to fight for a place where no one is willing to fight.

Unless it is inside parliament.

:oops:
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Oh, wow ... I did not realize that this was the Taiwan crisis thread, I thought it was that breaking news thread.

Guess these exercises are really over, and the new normal is here with us.

How tight they want to do these blockade maneuvers, we will see.

Next blow up should be a weapons shipment to Taiwan.

Not that the Taiwan army will do much with it.

Seems to me that with the two tribes over there, the green tribe will never fight for it, and the blue tribe will not fight on behalf of the green tribe who they hate. In the end, no one does anything, except empty gestures to Taiwan's defense commitments.

Got to wonder about the long run, whether the Americans are willing to fight for a place where no one is willing to fight.

Unless it is inside parliament.

:oops:
Yeah okay, let's get the topic back on track a bit.

Yesterday's Guanqi and Monday's guancha livestream from Shilao and Ayi touched on this. Now that the exercise is over and we have US throwing the first punch and China punching right back harder we would normally expect both to go back to their corner of the ring and wait for next round. However the US after getting punched unexpected in the month doesn't seem to want to do this and seem to want to continue this round of the crisis with another counter move of their own. Judging from all the noise they're making about FONOP Ayi has come up with three possible response USN might take in the near future:

weak response: sail a noncombat ship from USNS through the strait
moderate response: sail an AB or a Tico through the strait
strong response: sail the USS Ronald Reagan through the strait ala 1996

The weak response is so weak that I can't see even DPP media can spin that as as win.

Ayi judged the strong response to also be unlikely - sailing the carrier through the death trap that is the strait is a big gamble comparable to PLAAF sending manned aircraft over the main island - you are basically risking the lives of your soldiers on a bet that the other guy won't take this opportunity to open fire. Only in this case a carrier is much more higher value target than a fighter. Should USN attempt to do this PLAN could do all sorts of crazy thing like racing Liaoning and Shandong to the strait and block both ends physically trapping the carrier in the middle.

The moderate response is therefore the most likely. But given that sort of FONOP is also the status quo it seems hard to try to sell it as a win. And in any case PLAN could just dog pile that ship and make it look like a walk of shame by numbers.

Could anyone thing of any other possible response USN could take to recover some face?
 

9dashline

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yeah okay, let's get the topic back on track a bit.

Yesterday's Guanqi and Monday's guancha livestream from Shilao and Ayi touched on this. Now that the exercise is over and we have US throwing the first punch and China punching right back harder we would normally expect both to go back to their corner of the ring and wait for next round. However the US after getting punched unexpected in the month doesn't seem to want to do this and seem to want to continue this round of the crisis with another counter move of their own. Judging from all the noise they're making about FONOP Ayi has come up with three possible response USN might take in the near future:

weak response: sail a noncombat ship from USNS through the strait
moderate response: sail an AB or a Tico through the strait
strong response: sail the USS Ronald Reagan through the strait ala 1996

The weak response is so weak that I can't see even DPP media can spin that as as win.

Ayi judged the strong response to also be unlikely - sailing the carrier through the death trap that is the strait is a big gamble comparable to PLAAF sending manned aircraft over the main island - you are basically risking the lives of your soldiers on a bet that the other guy won't take this opportunity to open fire. Only in this case a carrier is much more higher value target than a fighter. Should USN attempt to do this PLAN could do all sorts of crazy thing like racing Liaoning and Shandong to the strait and block both ends physically trapping the carrier in the middle.

The moderate response is therefore the most likely. But given that sort of FONOP is also the status quo it seems hard to try to sell it as a win. And in any case PLAN could just dog pile that ship and make it look like a walk of shame by numbers.

Could anyone thing of any other possible response USN could take to recover some face?
US could sail the carrier right across the strait and Im sure now that China would NOT open fire.... it would do nothing and just let it sail by just like it did nothing when Pelosi aircraft landed....

The US, thus knowing this, would go for this as it would score it the most points.....
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
Social media is yet another really important part of winning the propaganda war. Unless the PRC wants to keep millions of people on staff to shitpost all day, there needs to be organic social media messaging. This means that internal propaganda and education becomes much more important, however. If China wants to be effective in this field, the Chinese people really need to be able to understand what they should be saying to either win external sympathy and to sow western discord. Having English-language resources that allow the Chinese people to have unity of purpose and an understanding of their objectives are both parts of what can go into constructing an effective propaganda institution.
What you want to say, but not saying directly is basically for china to liberalize its internet control, allow for the free access of information.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
US could sail the carrier right across the strait and Im sure now that China would NOT open fire.... it would do nothing and just let it sail by just like it did nothing when Pelosi aircraft landed....

The US, thus knowing this, would go for this as it would score it the most points.....
There are a lot of options between "open fire" and "do nothing", much like with Pelosi's plane in fact.
 
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