Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis


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I think your analysis is wrong simply because the foundation is wrong.

ROC armed forces is filled with museum pieces used by people who mostly are clueless. The old soldiers who have experience and some skill due to being from the KMT era are also the so called "cowards" simply because they know it's terribly futile to fight and they haven't gone through DPP brainwashing.

So to begin with, assuming all the supposed 170 000 Taiwan armed troops can fight at 100% efficiency is being incredibly, fantastically, unrealistic. But even if you voided all morale concerns, the equipment of rebel forces is so far behind government troops, that even that would not stop armed reunification.

"Recent events only prove this reality" like Tsai's ships not firing on government DDGs when they go within 9km of a land based powerplant? If ROC had such might they could prevent AR, why not exercise that might? China had since some time realized that AR is the only route, therefore for this conflict, it is now only waiting for the right moment to strike.

It doesn't really lend more credibility to your post when you even forgot how the PRC governing party is spelled despite it only being a 3 letter word lol
Translation problem, friend. I'm actually too lazy to edit the comments.

Furthermore, your comment in no way changes what I said, AR is pure illusion, whether Taiwan is militarily weak, militarily strong, or morally decadent.


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I will give my prediction of armed reunification a 3 week window. I believe the invasion will occur in this week, if it doesn't happen within this week then in the subsequent two weeks IMO the chances of armed reunification would be reduced to 85%. If it doesn't happen within 3 weeks from now then the chances are fifty fifty it would happen this year. And if it doesn't happen this year then the chances are 0% that it would happen this decade.

By the way here is the anti secession law for those who may wonder what it says, the first 7 articles is about peaceful reunification, while 8 and 9 is about armed reunification:

"Article 8 In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The State Council and the Central Military Commission shall decide on and execute the non-peaceful means and other necessary measures as provided for in the preceding paragraph and shall promptly report to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress."

"Article 9 In the event of employing and executing non-peaceful means and other necessary measures as provided for in this Law, the state shall exert its utmost to protect the lives, property and other legitimate rights and interests of Taiwan civilians and foreign nationals in Taiwan, and to minimize losses. At the same time, the state shall protect the rights and interests of the Taiwan compatriots in other parts of China in accordance with law."
I also think it's coming soon. Within 5 years, with a high chance of happening in the upcoming months, but if not, definitely within 5 years.

At first, it looked like Xi just wanted to outplay Biden with salami slicing, but the constant extensions of exercise dates... yeah.

Also on the first days, people kept spamming photos of PLA buildup towards Fujian. There's now nearly nothing coming up. The government has likely nudged the people to stop posting such photos even as more and more exercises are happening. With every day, there is most likely a bunch of more troops joining the area.


Junior Member
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The Washington Post article basically said that:

1. Pelosi would publicly blame Biden if he blocked her from visiting Taiwan. That is credible given Pelosi.

2. Biden didn't want to deal with that domestic political fallout, so he preferred that Pelosi visit Taiwan. So it would be Pelosi that gets the blame when Taiwan suffers.

In comparison, Lithuania can't hurt China or the USA. So Lithuania can be blocked (by both the US and China) from visiting Taiwan.
Here's the actual the news about Lithuania govt officials?

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It's the deputy transportation minister leading delegation from the electric buss industry. .... So pretty close to Pelosi's level I suppose.


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This FT report has admitted the chance of a "new status quo" a la Diaoyu Islands after PLA's exercise and operation around Taiwan in the wake of Pelosi's visit. It interviewed extensively to get opinions from the US establishment sources, analysts and think tankers. The assessments are largely to the point. Keep in mind, FT has become an outlet for the US political insiders. It first reported Pelosi's plan to visit Taiwan last month.

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Actually read the article and like my post earlier. US benefits from starting a conflict now.

At least according to the article, some in the US are thinking this way.

“There must now be an explicit if informal military co-ordination between Taiwan, Japan and the US to undertake effective military operations against China,” he says, even suggesting the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in or near Taiwan. However, most observers dismiss such steps as highly escalatory.


Senior Member
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For those who think AR is achievable, I'm sorry to have to profoundly disagree, this is pure illusion. Recent events only prove this reality, moreover, while China had the KMT as a force to maintain the status quo on the island, Beijing did NOTHING to change this in a discreet way, trusting that the KMT would always remain in power in Taiwan. and time would do the work to have an achievable PR, another illusion. If the CCP is still convinced that AR is achievable, they are just as deluded as those outside China's decision-making, which includes SDF members

The only delusional one here is you. There is plenty of discussion on the other main Taiwan thread. Not to mention that the Pentagon own war games are not favourable for the Americans and they will only get worst as China builds up their advance weaponry.

The current issue isn’t China ability to successfully invade Taiwan. They already can under the Pentagon own games. It’s whatever China is able to defeat the US. China has the home turf advantage while the US has huge logistical distances. A peer to peer match over thousands of miles across the ocean is a disaster for the US.