Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Nobo

Junior Member
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Folks who thought the world dodged a WWIII bullet last week are in for a surprise
I give to til end of August before all hell breaks loose!
AR will be the bare minimum, possibly up to MAD
I will bet you 100 billion there won't be any WW3. You think onlyfan army will actually fight war? The extire thing isto turn Taiwanese Island into another Ukraine.
What i want China & Russia to do is to jointly declare independence of Native America, Mexican Texas, Kingdom of Hawaii & Guam from role playing colonial euro inbreeds.

I would love to see who shoes up for MAD.
 

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
He can be genuine or not but it doesn't matter because he isn't a policy or decision maker

What I pay attention, is the actions and not the talk.
The US is talking a good game about plenty of things. But when the time comes to take an action, that's when America shows its true face.

So, when I see Biden and other propagandists say "we didn't support the visit!", I see the actions of Biden, the commander in chief, giving permission to Pelosi to use military assets to travel to Taiwan and I conclude that Biden defacto supported the visit.
which is why this time, China cannot be sure of there safety until the USA suffers for their actions and China is strong enough to completely eject US influence from the Asia pacific region by any means necessary. But first, they need to use moves to harm the US people economically while reducing the effect it will have on the Chinese people while continuing to dump US treasuries while continuing to stockpile weapons. And work together with Russia to make the US pay for all the harm done. And while they are at it, make the Taiwanese supporters of the USA realise that without China, they are nothing.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
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Good
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China to conduct 'regular' military drills east of Taiwan Strait median line, state media report​

The Chinese military will from now on conduct "regular" drills on the eastern side of the median line of the Taiwan Strait, Chinese state television reported on Sunday, citing a commentator.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I really don't see this happening. China probably wants to develop this out as the new normal and let the waning of the news cycle and public interest to naturally de-escalate tensions. I'm not sure I see China deescalating unless they're offered concessions, and American political discourse means that concessions basically can't be offered at this time without torpedoing the political clout of the official that offers it. I guess the American generals can try to offer something?

Why wouldn't China want to de-escalate?

China has come out with a significant PR win and a change in the status quo in China's favour.
If China continues, they'll be seen as the aggressor.

There will inevitably be more actions that go against the One China principle which 160 countries in the world have recently affirmed.

China just has to wait for another politician in the West who is too stupid to recognise the consequences of supporting an independent Taiwan.
Then China can run the same playbook again

Yeah, I still don't understand why anyone thinks that is a good idea. If they wanted to defend the democracy and political autonomy of Taiwan, the status quo is the thing that should be maintained. I think for many uninformed but highly political Americans, it's hard to get the concept into their head that sometimes the best thing to do is to not do anything.

The proposal comes from the US Senate, and would include the US formally recognising Taiwan as a military ally, provide weapons to Taiwan and support Taiwan in international organisations.


It'll still be painful regardless. It's just that as time goes on, China as well as sympathetic nations will develop out their industries more and western powers will increasingly have to turn their attentions towards domestic issues. It just seems like the best option, regardless of whether you're China or if you're the pro-Taiwanese democracy faction of America, to just try to kick this bucket down the road. If war starts, democracy is going to die in Taiwan regardless.

Well, in the long run, you would expect China to build a significantly larger military than the USA. Large enough to defeat US Navy in a blue-water battle in the Western Pacific. At that point, it doesn't make any sense for the US to get involved in a war against China
 

efficient_kiwi

New Member
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1) Someone mentioned that the exercises can happen at random, unpredictable times. (I think @FriedButter said this, but I've forgotten, sorry.) Taiwan would have little time to prepare.

Very true. Though tbh, there isn't much the Taiwanese can do about them, so there wouldn't be much preparation anyway. Maybe increased maintenance or something?

2) An exercise -- and the chaos it causes -- can last much longer than 3 days. There are already rumors that the current exercise will be extended to August 15.

Sure. We don't really know what effect they have though; currently international flights seem to be unaffected. Reports I've seen have shown ships sailing a bit farther, which given the timescale of sea trade isn't particularly chaotic. However, if you have some other reports, I'm quite interested!

3) "In 2018, Taiwan's food self-sufficiency rate is only 35%", according to Taiwan's
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. A food blockade would be a serious disruption for the island.

Well, a food blockade would also be markedly different from the current exercises, so this is pretty much irrelevant to my original point. Current exercises aren't a blockade, but 'practicing' a possible blockade. It's an avenue of escalation.
 
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