Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Nutrient said:

No, Taiwan could be seriously disrupted by the mainland's military exercises.

1) Someone mentioned that the exercises can happen at random, unpredictable times. (I think @FriedButter said this, but I've forgotten, sorry.) Taiwan would have little time to prepare.

2) An exercise -- and the chaos it causes -- can last much longer than 3 days. There are already rumors that the current exercise will be extended to August 15.

3) "In 2018, Taiwan's food self-sufficiency rate is only 35%", according to Taiwan's

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. A food blockade would be a serious disruption for the island.

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5unrise said:

What is the solution for China? I don't know. But to me, the longer this standoff drags out, the worse off everyone is.

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5unrise said:

The longer this standoff drags out for, the worse the situation is for both sides of the strait. I am not just referring to the military exercises - they will be over soon - who cares. I am talking about this multi-year standoff between the mainland and Taiwan that will inevitably follow, and having everyone live in fear and anxiety. It is also politically costly for the PRC, because the Taiwan issue is just constantly occupying its military and diplomatic attention. Crimea kind of just disappeared off the radar after Russia took it over quickly in 2014, although Donbass obviously did not. What is the solution for China? I don't know. But to me, the longer this standoff drags out, the worse off everyone is.

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siegecrossbow said:

Did you know that they are countering PRC aggression with display of exposed bobs?

https://tw.yahoo.com/trendr/setn.com.tw/上空裸照流出-最美女士官-保鮮膜裹身-大尺度洩雪白-片-035003824.html

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Strangelove said:

The real international community, the humanity.... the Genocide-7 have proven they're not part of humanity.

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To the surprise of the U.S. side, more than 160 countries have in recent days voiced support for China's legitimate position in different ways, Wang said.

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Strangelove said:

The real international community, real humanity backing China; the Genocide-7 have proven they're not part of humanity.

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To the surprise of the U.S. side, more than 160 countries have in recent days voiced support for China's legitimate position in different ways, Wang said.

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siegecrossbow said:

Did you know that they are countering PRC aggression with display of exposed bobs?

https://tw.yahoo.com/trendr/setn.com.tw/上空裸照流出-最美女士官-保鮮膜裹身-大尺度洩雪白-片-035003824.html

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obj 705A said:

I will give my prediction of armed reunification a 3 week window. I believe the invasion will occur in this week, if it doesn't happen within this week then in the subsequent two weeks IMO the chances of armed reunification would be reduced to 85%. If it doesn't happen within 3 weeks from now then the chances are fifty fifty it would happen this year. And if it doesn't happen this year then the chances are 0% that it would happen this decade.

By the way here is the anti secession law for those who may wonder what it says, the first 7 articles is about peaceful reunification, while 8 and 9 is about armed reunification:

"Article 8 In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The State Council and the Central Military Commission shall decide on and execute the non-peaceful means and other necessary measures as provided for in the preceding paragraph and shall promptly report to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress."

"Article 9 In the event of employing and executing non-peaceful means and other necessary measures as provided for in this Law, the state shall exert its utmost to protect the lives, property and other legitimate rights and interests of Taiwan civilians and foreign nationals in Taiwan, and to minimize losses. At the same time, the state shall protect the rights and interests of the Taiwan compatriots in other parts of China in accordance with law."

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