Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Phead128

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For a demonstration of this, you can jump onto reddit or youtube or wherever else the perpetually online millennials and gen-z-ers congregate and see that they are still dunking on China and ignoring the warning of policy experts about the precariousness of the situation. Like 2/3 of the comments I read on r/news about China is calling the PRC crybabies.
I can't believe I have to say this, but.... Reddit, Youtube, Twitter comments section does not represent the real-world.
 
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dasCKD

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I can't believe I have to say this, but.... Reddit, Youtube, Twitter comments section does not represent the real-world.
I can't exactly teleport over to America and start polling the public there, and so in lieu of that I think it serves as a close barometer as to what the opinions of the American public is. That said, if someone has a better finger on the pulse of public opinion in the US then they should feel free to share that.
 

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
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Not interested in guardrails and other bullshit...

View attachment 95013

The cancellation and suspension of talk will be just temporally.

I can see only 3 things the US will want to talk about with China in the next 2~3 months :
  • Tell China to stop her military action against Taiwan
  • Ask China to help fight US inflation
  • Politician making brownie points for their upcoming November midterm election
So there is no point for Chinese officials to waste their time until after the new status quo with Taiwan has been fully established and the US midterm election is over.
 

Rettam Stacf

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watch us allies send their delegations one after the other, especially those allies that have degraded relations with china and not strong economic ties
china acted in a reasonably measured way with regards to pelosi (at least for those who don't buy us propaganda); prolonging exercises to sunday it's easy, but then the lithuanians would probably postpone again, in a weird cat and mouse game; I wonder if china will escalate the level of exercises, cause that leads to an ascending spiral of regional tension (from the west pov) and that is probably what the us want
I wonder what china will come up with this time, if the news of this visit is indeed true

As long as they represent Lithuania and not EU, they will likely fly in by commercial airline. Lithuania is a small country. No need for China to escalate much. China can simply tell the airline that all their planes will be banned from Chinese airspace if they carried these passengers to Taiwan.
 

Barefoot

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This might not seem like it is directly related to the issue of the Taiwan Straights, but it is another case of US troops on China's border.

"Border tensions escalated between the two countries after soldiers
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that killed at least 20 Indian soldiers in June 2020 in the Galwan Valley, close to Aksai Chin, an area controlled by China but claimed by both countries."

(i didn't know people had died in those fights)

More positioning?

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sinophilia

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This might not seem like it is directly related to the issue of the Taiwan Straights, but it is another case of US troops on China's border.

"Border tensions escalated between the two countries after soldiers
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that killed at least 20 Indian soldiers in June 2020 in the Galwan Valley, close to Aksai Chin, an area controlled by China but claimed by both countries."

(i didn't know people had died in those fights)

More positioning?

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A couple dozen miles from China. Continued unprecedented actions.
 

Nutrient

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First, the continued exercises, assuming that the PLA can support them, could be an issue. However, I do feel that economically, it still falls far short of a total blockade. There would be an acclimation period, ofc, but I feel that a couple days delay for 2-3 times per year is a minor nuisance, at worst.
No, Taiwan could be seriously disrupted by the mainland's military exercises.

1) Someone mentioned that the exercises can happen at random, unpredictable times. (I think @FriedButter said this, but I've forgotten, sorry.) Taiwan would have little time to prepare.

2) An exercise -- and the chaos it causes -- can last much longer than 3 days. There are already rumors that the current exercise will be extended to August 15.

3) "In 2018, Taiwan's food self-sufficiency rate is only 35%", according to Taiwan's
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. A food blockade would be a serious disruption for the island.
 

Abominable

Major
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This might not seem like it is directly related to the issue of the Taiwan Straights, but it is another case of US troops on China's border.

"Border tensions escalated between the two countries after soldiers
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that killed at least 20 Indian soldiers in June 2020 in the Galwan Valley, close to Aksai Chin, an area controlled by China but claimed by both countries."

(i didn't know people had died in those fights)

More positioning?

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Do American soldiers have high altitude training? I remember standards of Indian camps in Ladakh from pictures. I think American soldiers are going to find it very difficult out there.
 
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