Assessment from former deputy defense sec on the Taiwanese crisis
As far as I know there are about three ways to calculate the distance by eye: (1) with the thumb and arm extended and closing and opening one eye (using the eyes as a rangefinder (this is a very nice method)) (2) using the edge of a coin and (3) determining the horizon.
Unfortunately in this case I can only think of the third one. If the photograph is taken from 11 meters high and assuming (which is a lot to assume) that the coast is visible, then about 11.8 thousand meters away.
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So, I thought I’d try at a rough guesstimate based on distance scaling between foreground and background objects. I couldn’t quite get a handle of how tall that cooling tower is, but based on the number of floors of the building in front of the cooling tower and of the nearby lamp posts on the street, I’d venture a guess that the cooling tower is about 300-500 feet tall. The ROCN ship in the foreground should be a Knox class frigate about 430 feet long. That ship in the foreground is about 10~11 times longer than the tower in the background is tall. At a 0 degree viewing arc 1 extra unit of height reduction corresponds to 1 extra unit of distance. The viewing arc up to 30 degrees can make that relationship increase by at most 15%. So if we assume the tower is 500 feet tall, if it were placed in the foreground where the ROCN frigate is positioned it would be maybe 11-12 times taller than what its height is in the image background. Which means a super rough top end estimate for the distance of the ROCN ship from shore is about 6800 ft away from shore, or about 2 km. Just to be generous, assume double that position between the PLAN ship and the ROCN ship, and you would get 4 km. So regardless of how conservative we end up being about how close the PLAN ship is, I think it’s pretty safe to say we’re well under the standard 12 nautical mile perimeter of another state’s territorial waters.So we can probably know with good confidence intervals the size of the ROC ship shadowing the 052C and we should probably be able to find out how big that tower of the power plant is - is there a inference to be made as to how far away from shores that 052C was?
... the war eventually ends, and they go back to playing the same games ...
I think Taiwan needs some 200kg fire fighting guided bombs and some fire fighting MLRS.To retaliate against China's blockade and live military exercise, Taiwan army too launched missiles. The result is they set fire on a forest covered hill. Their military exercise was thus terminated. Taiwan media is pretty honest. They didn't blame it on the PLA. LAMOOO
these kids will fight with PLA ? suicide mission
seems like without US intervention, Taiwan war will be over within 2 or 3 days.
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There's no situation where China will storm Taiwan in a manner like Normandy.I mentioned in a previous post that the best strategy for china in the event of a major offensive against Taiwan is to slowly squeeze Taiwan through long term semi-blockade where you selectively allow the ingress and egress of ships/cargo. Friendly nations for example could come and go. This forces the ball of escalation into US and Taiwanese hands. Do you stand by and do nothing? Do you give an ultimatum to China to end the blockade, do you risk a shooting war where China does not fire the first shot if china says no to the ultimatum? Of course all of this predicated on the assumption US never had any intention to militarily intervene.
The least ideal situation is for China to storm Taiwan D-Day style due to the risks and complexities. A semi-blockade will eventually force the Taiwanese to negotiate a deal.
I hope they go through with attempting to visit and a good example is made of themLMAO
However, it is noted that vast majority of the Lithuanian people disagree with their government's policy on China.
Another case-&-point where the government leadership elites completely lost touch with their own people and reality.