Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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NeutralWarrior

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Maybe they got confused with a different exercise, which is in the southern part of Yellow Sea.

Live ammunition in the southern waters of the Yellow Sea from the 6th AUG

The Lianyungang Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning, from August 6 to August 15, from 8:00 to 18:00 every day, live ammunition will be carried out in some waters in the southern part of the Yellow Sea, and it is forbidden to enter.

yellow sea.jpeg


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NeutralWarrior

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Anyone have a link to russian telegram groups? Wanna see what russians are commenting about this issue

Intel Slava Z

For your convenience sake, I might as well post the video of the forest fire caused by Taiwanese Artillery unit's exercise yesterday..just click through...haha

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Also on the Yellow Sea exercise from 6-15 AUG:

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baykalov

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Taiwan’s effort to attract and train more pilots has been thwarted by a series of factors, from the island’s declining birth rate to several high-profile crashes. About 80% of university students in Taiwan have myopia, due to long classroom hours and high-levels of screen time on electronic devices.

Taiwanese authorities say Ukraine’s success in denying air superiority to a much larger invading power has helped recruiting. In March, 70% of 1,076 people polled by the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society said they were willing to go to war to defend their self-governed island from Beijing’s attack, up from 40% in December.
 

Biscuits

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I agree with pretty much everything you said, however, there is still one important question missing. Who would be the leader of China in charge of AR? The reason I ask this is b/c some people suspect that Xi wants to make Taiwan his legacy. If Xi really wanted to make Taiwan his legacy, he could just get his 3rd term, and once the type 003 is operational, China could launch AR by blockading Taiwan. Then, China would get naval and air supremacy and fight off US/Japan. Under this AR, China can only break the 1st island chain and not the rest.

My question to you and everyone else here is do you guys think Xi is really desperate to make Taiwan his legacy that he would go for AR in his 3rd term. Or, in a very unlikely scenario, Xi can get a 3rd and 4th term and launch AR around 2030.
It is less if Xi wants to make it his legacy or not and more about if his sales pitch to the central committee and the legislative includes Taiwan.

Big terms need to be backed up with big promises and succesful results.

People tend to see military resolution as a number crunching game between PLA fighting 100% of ROC fighters, which in the current situation already vastly favors PLA. But in reality, it will likely not be a pure armed reunification and not a pure peaceful reunification either.

Government troops will draw attention for awhile, then volunteer patriots and covert forces within Taiwan will provide the excuse for the PLA to start entering and shooting the ROC fighters who are on Tsai's side.

Based on recent events, I would claim that, China is already 100% prepared for reunification today, but it is waiting for a scenario where destruction to Taiwan will be minimal and where Beijing will be obviously in the right internationally, which means Tsai must fire the first shot somehow.

With Xi generally seen as outplaying Biden in this crisis, it seems inevitable that he has a very strong argument to get a 3rd term. I'd be very surprised if someone else wins the elections.
 

Sardaukar20

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The Taiwanese young are just not suited for war. Though the PLA suffers the same issue to a much lesser extent. They have gone through plenty of military exercises over the last few years. The average PLA soldier has been through far greater hardship than the average Taiwanese soldier.

The opposing armies will have different mindsets too. The PLA are fighting to right the wrongs of the Century of Humiliation. While the Taiwanese are fighting for Boba Tea, democrazy, and white worshipping. Their crazy ideals are only around for about 30 years. There is just no contest.

So 70% of them are willing to fight? It is meaningless with their crap situation. Those Boba hanjians can talk all they like. Talk is cheap. Just like the roaches in HK, they are a pathetic bunch. They can only pick on the weak. When the going gets tough, they start crying for help. These bunch of losers are not worth for the PLA to kill, but they better not push things too far. Better for them to surrender Taiwan and flee to the West to continue living their pathetic lives there than to force the PLA to kill them.
 

Strangelove

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China's going to place sanctions on the witch and her family... as it turns out, her husband has a fund in Hong Kong, owning stakes in Alibaba, Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile etc. While her son Paul Jr has a company in Hong Kong engaged in M&A. The Hong Kong government have made it clear that it supports China's sanctions on Pelosi & family, although the details and scale of the sanctions are still undisclosed.

It looks like the Pelosi family may have a portion of its wealth seized. LOL...


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It's well-known that Pelosi, mocked as a "rich woman on Capitol Hill," and her family operate a big business empire. Pelosi has long been criticized for taking advantage of her position to seek business interests for her family. China's sanctions will inevitably deal a precise strike. According to some Hong Kong media outlets, Pelosi's husband and son made a great sum of money from investments in the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and other parts of Asia through funds. About half of the Asia Dividend Fund under Matthews Global Investors (Hong Kong) Ltd, founded by her husband, involves Chinese enterprises. The operator of the investment company once donated millions of dollars to the Democratic Party. In the future, those businesses will find it impossible to continue, and the Democrats' sources of political donations may also be affected. The "revolving door" of the Pelosi family will be stuck wherever it relates to any Chinese elements. The pain will be real and lasting.
 
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