Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

antiterror13 said:

Very interesting that Aussie government has been very quiet during this period, imagine if it was still under scomo ?

I think the new Aussie govt desperately want to improve the relationship with China

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Australia, New Zealand and South Korean do not want to use the Taiwan card due to national interests. Being US allies, they can't disapproved the visit, but want the status quo unchanged. Life is already hard enough, why make it worse, just to please the US without any tangible benefits?
Thus the silence from Australia and no show by South Koreans officials. Interesting to see the outcome of the planed visit of Jacinda Ardern to China.

A friend of mine has described the situation to me thusly: China's sharpening the spear point right now but hasn't attached the shaft to it yet.

HumanHDMI said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555273807920766976

Has this been posted? This is the Fox news white house correspondent so it's fairly credible

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That is why China need to take Penghu Islands ASAP. Any hostile ship trying to pass through Taiwan Strait as a show of force will have to worry about anti-ship missiles coming from both side, and at a close distance.

USN CSG in Taiwan strait is boring... they just come to flex muscle for photo ops and go.

How about USN flex muscle by sail through live fire excercise zone and use thier defense system to protect CSG? If they getting sink, its their own doing, if they aren't, this is a valuable data for PLA to prepare in future.

Andy1974 said:

That’s the thing about surprises!

What if after all the pieces are in place for an invasion this Sunday, a few miles of the Taiwan coast, and they just go ahead and do it, would that surprise the US?

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Oooooh ...

What I would like to see - PLA push the envelope further on Pintang (or Kinmen) given they have already conducted overflights with Z-10/20

Put some serious firepower just outside of Pintang and send in a lone Z-20 with a field grade officer and bodyguard detail, lightly armed or even unarmed. Land on Pintang and get optics of meeting with the island commander and then calmly flyoff.

Any attempt to detain them will be ask to note the PLAN ships cruising for a bruising and Z-10s hovering nearby. Maybe ask the local garrison if they have heard of Galwan ...

Heliox said:

Oooooh ...

What I would like to see - PLA push the envelope further on Pintang (or Kinmen) given they have already conducted overflights with Z-10/20

Put some serious firepower just outside of Pintang and send in a lone Z-20 with a field grade officer and bodyguard detail, lightly armed or even unarmed. Land on Pintang and get optics of meeting with the island commander and then calmly flyoff.

Any attempt to detain them will be ask to note the PLAN ships cruising for a bruising and Z-10s hovering nearby. Maybe ask the local garrison if they have heard of Galwan ...

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What you are suggesting is actually not as ridiculous as it first appears. But I don't think China will gamble with the lives of its troops with a stunt like this.

kokole said:

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They truly don't get it, do they? Taiwan spending billions on arms of dubious practicallity is the cornerstone between US-Taiwan relations. After all, it's more or less a protection racket.

Now the Yanks will give away weapons for free? That defeats the whole purpose of the exercise.

siegecrossbow said:

What you are suggesting is actually not as ridiculous as it first appears. But I don't think China will gamble with the lives of its troops with a stunt like this.

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Yes, it will be gambling with lives. Martyr volunteers will be required.
Not that there will be a shortage of volunteers but the spin may be something they don't have control of.

Petrolicious88 said:

I love it when people try to get philosophical on this forum. Joking aside, it’s very hard to know how good Chinese military is at this point. Made huge progress since 1996, but we don’t know yet if all of the units can work together in joint operations across all spectrums in contested environments. It’s a work in progress until 2035.

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The US DoD has done that for you, but take their report with a pinch of salt.

Looks like China playbook in the future might include selective blockade, squeeze Taiwan’s economy, allow select ships to ingress and egress, and thus place the burden of escalation on Taiwan and US. It’s not a bad strategy.

During WWI Britain was so concerned with the rise of German Navy it enforced a policy of “distant blockade” of the North Sea and English Channel. It had a significant impact on German economy. By 1917 Germany was running out of supplies, and eventually sued for peace.